2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[andyb]

Gilbert could be the worst pitcher ever to throw a no-hitter. Kind of amazing he has only 91 career innings pitched. At this stage he just might be a LOOGY reclamation project. He was actually mostly a reliever with us (though more because he ranked behind starters as a prospect at most levels).

[Jazzhead]

I have been somewhat mystified by the use of Strahm by the team. After doing reasonably well as a starter at the start of last season, he went to the bullpen, supposedly as a long reliever. But it seems he has now become another of the one inning relievers. I would like to see him join Turnbull as relievers who can and often do pitch 2 to 4 innings in a game. I really believe this would make the pen stronger.

I agree. Too many relievers are conditioned to pitch one inning only, even though the primary purpose of a reliever - to serve as a fresh arm the other team hasn't seen - is served just as well by an effective two inning stint, where no batter is faced twice.

[andyb]

Strahm's usage issue is really that he has become our most reliable left-handed reliever (best would be a contest between him and Alvarado). The team is more comfortable with Strahm coming in during the 6th and 7th inning to face a left-handed batter than they are with Soto. He is just needed more in higher leverage situations.

The usage of Turnbull will be interesting. The conventional wisdom has multi-inning pitchers being used in 2 situations. First, when a starter exits early and innings are needed. And second, when the team is losing and they don't want to waste higher leverage arms.

To some degree our bullpen is built on high effort big arms, so one inning outings are the norm for most. But if Turnbull pitches well, like with Strahm, there really should be an effort to get him to pitch 2+ innings when we have a small lead in place of 2 of the higher effort arms.

[Austinfan]

Strahm and Turnbull aren't high effort guys, so they can throw more innings when they're not running deep counts.
That can allow Thompson to rest the high effort guys.

Hoffman has proven himself to be a late inning guy, hitting 97-98 with a nasty slider.
Kerkering has similar stuff though his breaking ball is a bit different but just as effective.
Alvarado is shaky except in save situations (6 for 6).

SD is the puzzle.
Soto and Marte are teases, they flash talent but you never know which chocolate you're biting into

[Callison]

Phils fans take notice when the '93 Phils are mentioned, the greatest team never to win a WS, as this year's team was shown to be only a few percentage points behind them in winning percentage at this point in the season. That is really doing it. The '93 Phils seemed to flirt with .700 for a while. The winning attitude is another good comparison. Can't see it, but everybody knows it's there.

Today's game against an aging RH - the Phils love RHs - ask Berrios - with big era and some .300 W percentage, the Jays have about zero chance. I'm so confident, I'm prepared to risk PC's entire estate.

OTOH, there's serious work to be done. It's a perfect game for Nola to find some consistency. You watch this guy pitch at his best and he's dominant. Here's hoping he's as concerned as any of us that something is wrong somewhere when all that talent just suddenly disappears. Try to improve the warmup routine. Check your diet. See a sports shrink. Could be he shows up today and throws a shutout. The problem that needs fixing though is the inconsistency thing - that he suddenly can't even find the plate. It's that he can't allow his worst days to be as bad as he was last outing. Pressure on Nola today to perform at the level of ALL the other starters.

Read an article where JT says he expects the starters continue pitching as they are, that they seem strong and he says the Phils have the best rotation in MLB. The stats these guys are putting up are incredible today and getting better.

[Philsmania]

The key difference from '93 that I see is that the '93 team was an offensive juggernaut with ok (at best) pitching and bad fielding defense. This '24 Phillies team has had great starting pitching while the offense has been good but not a juggernaut and the underrated fielding defense is at least acceptable.

[zambonir]

The offense is rapidly approaching juggernaut. 3rd in runs scored, 2nd in OPS (3rd in OBP and SLG when separated), tied for 3rd in HRs.

And then there's this:

Quirks of scheduling provide a new way to look at luck for hitters

The Phillies may not have played a tough schedule, but they have faced tough pitching. 6th-best opposition according to this Stuff+ metric. One of only two top 10 offenses (in terms of runs scored) of the 10 teams who have faced the toughest stuff.

Also Castellanos and Realmuto are among the 15 players who have faced the toughest pitching by that metric. 12 of those 15 players are struggling.

So, while we think the Phillies have a tougher schedule ahead, this story also suggests there will be some evening out/regression in terms of how tough the opposing pitchers are.

[andyb]

Strahm and Turnbull aren't high effort guys, so they can throw more innings when they're not running deep counts.
That can allow Thompson to rest the high effort guys.

The point though is that if they are needed (and Strahm was the main person we are talking about) in high leverage LOOGY situations, they can't pitch multiple innings and be unavailable for 2-3 games. It is not just the effort. It is whether they are available in important situations.

[Callison]

Watching videos of the '93 Phils is like watching "Casablanca" - maybe it comes on during a rain delay or something and you say to yourself, "I'm not watching this again..." and an hour later you're misting up over the tragic ending you know so well. "Offensive Juggernaut" they surely were.

The '24 Phils can be one from time to time. When Turner gets back, that'll be more often, too.

Listening to the Giants' announcer last night talking about the Phils, he started talking about stolen bases where the Phils lead, then a couple other stats then finally concluded the Phils are doing just about everything right and mentioned the latest 10 - 1 beat down. Everywhere you turn, good Phils news.

[andyb]

Stolen bases are an interesting stat to look at. We are actually 5th in baseball. First is the Nats though and they are one of the surprise decent teams. A team with a high number of stolen bases probably has a high number of fast players who can play decent defense. Having Rojas, Marsh, Stott, and even JT in the lineup is a sign we are playing better defense too.

Down here in DC Jacob Young is kind of a revelation for the Nats. 7th round pick out of college a couple of years ago and all he has been doing is play great defense and steal at a 50-base clip every year he has been in the minors. He has decent on base skills so the lack of power is less important. He is doing what we kind of want Rojas to do offensively and is a huge key to the Nats not being awful (in addition to CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker). The Nats should be awful, but they can run and play some defense so they are not actually awful.

[BostonRoss]

So, while we think the Phillies have a tougher schedule ahead, this story also suggests there will be some evening out/regression in terms of how tough the opposing pitchers are.

Right, but the Phils will also be facing tougher offenses when they are facing the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees; so our pitching will probably look worse.

[zambonir]

For sure. But they don't have to play .800 ball against those teams. Or even .600 ball.

[dicemen99]

Today's game against an aging RH - the Phils love RHs - ask Berrios - with big era and some .300 W percentage, the Jays have about zero chance. I'm so confident, I'm prepared to risk PC's entire estate.

Are you serious??? You should be banned for a week - minimum - for this post. Do you actually live in Philadelphia and root for the teams?

If anyone wants to hang today's loss on someone, look no further that this. I'm surprised we got that close in the 9th after a post like this.

Kidding, just kidding. But not really...
I didn't get to visit the board until after the game. But my BP actually went up when I read this while catching up. Not kidding about that.

[allentown]

This loss ends the Phillies' home win streak at what, 11 games? Quite an accomplishment.

[zambonir]

Record is still 16, done twice ('77 and '91. '91?)

[zambonir]

That '93 rotation wasn't chopped liver either. Rivera had a 5.02 ERA but that's probably not so bad for a fifth starter back then. And Curt's was 4.02 (his FIP with lower but his ERA+ still just 99). The other three were all excellent.

As beloved as the 1993 Phillies remain to this day for their outsized personalities, their throwback style, and their surprising run to the World Series, an often-overlooked strength of that team was the durability and overall quality of its rotation. Curt Schilling, Terry Mulholland, Tommy Greene, Danny Jackson, and Ben Rivera each made at least 28 starts; in fact, the Phillies played just 10 games that season that weren’t started by one of those five pitchers. Different era, sure, but impressive nonetheless.

One reason Tobias Harris was such a letdown for the Sixers, Flyers wait for...

[Callison]

Dice - are you saying we shouldn't write about expecting victory?

Concerning the prediction yesterday, I could not believe the game I watched. The Phils just tore up a RH ERA LEADER the previous day and RH Bassit's best stats were from previous years. I nearly predicted a blowout, so my enthusiasm was even curbed. But Bassit pitched like an All Star. The home plate ump missed a lot and no doubt Bassit and his catcher will tell you he missed a LOT of Bassit's toughest strikes. IMHO, Bassit was that good for some reason, though it looked like the Phils just forgot how to hit.

Won't be the last time my enthusiasm gets the better of me and thanks in advance for your understanding should I write about expecting victory again.

As I am so tempted to do today... it looks even worse than the last game in the mismatch... but seeing what bad karma showed up last time, I will stfu for the good of the team. Very challenging.

[Callison]

Nola looked better, but he's sposed to be #2 and he's pitching like #6. IMHO Big Rob was slow to get him out of there, too, but that seems to be his management style with pitchers. Too bad Nola was pitching on "The Phillies Don't Show Up Day".

[donaldorc]

I can understand your sentiments about last night. I thought the Phillies would lose when Sanchez was on the mound against the best ERA in baseball, and would win with Nola going against a pedestrian ERA pitchers. Baseball is a funny game!

[zambonir]

The day game hangover after an offensive explosion is almost never surprising to me. But the fact that the latter happened in this series certainly was.