2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Phillies are saying different things Turnbull's innings than they did before whether that was spin or the front office and pitching staff knowing more than Thomson did. But he still probably does have a limit.

Meanwhile if he's the second half of piggyback it doesn't count towards his incentives.

[andyb]

You can put Wheeler on a 5-day rotation and work the rest of the staff, which seems to do better with an extra day or two of rest, around that, and keep a 6-man staff. That's what I would do, but you really can't do it unless all the starters buy in.

2 issues with that. Putting Wheeler on a separate track with off days would mean other starters would have very different patterns. 4-day rest with no off days. Then sometimes 6 or 7 with off days and then Wheeler jumping ahead of them. Is that good for everyone else?

Second issue. What if extra rest is good for Wheeler's long term health even if he thinks he pitches better with shorter rest? If we gave Wheeler 34 starts and nobody else got more than 30 or 31 then are we pushing him to 210 innings while everyone else is at 170-180? Clearly Wheeler has shown he can handle a higher load, but do we want to push that on our $42 million a year pitcher?

[phillychuck]

All good questions, Andy. Nothing is perfect, but I'd try the Wheeler plus 5 guys rotation in some creative fashion. Keep Wheeler on 4 days rest, and adjust around off-days and (rare) double-headers, allowing some pitchers to occasionally skip a start and throw on the side to keep everyone relatively sharp. Nola particularly seems to benefit from extra rest here and there, and you can frequently skip Turnbull to limit his innings.

[zambonir]

I really think there is no reason to reinvent the wheel here, it's just a matter of keeping Turnbull on his preferred routine and getting high-leverage work out of him versus burying him as a Covey-esque long man. Of course if he is better than Walker and Sanchez he should just start, with Sanchez as the likely loser there due to having more relief experience and recent struggles. But they still need to see how Walker, who was an above-average (leaguewide) pitcher last year, does.

I don't think there are egos and contracts involved with Casty but there definitely are with the rotation. Walker is a high-paid vet who needs/wants to start, Turnbull is a career starter whose contract rewards him getting starts (though it's so little money the Phillies should just tear it up and pay him $4 million regardless of his role).

I think the May concern is actually the bullpen. The offense is a known quantity whether certain players come around or don't (and others possibly slump or don't). But the combination of carrying Turnbull, Seranthony's struggles and Soto, Marte and Kerkering not being consistent leaves it a little thin if certain people are forced into bigger roles or workloads.

But at the same time May is still a bit of a shake-out cruise in that regard. Still a few fungibles in Allentown who might get a look, as well as the possible return of Ortiz (who can be optioned) and Covey (who can't and is presumably gone but you never know).

[Callison]

IMHO, Turnbull's play has defined his role. He's a starter and he's GOOD for 5. Maybe more, but not lately, so why not just save him for his next start... since the pen is so strong? Turnbull-to-start is all about performance. Here's hoping Walker and Sanchez pitch as well.

Agree that the rotation needs to accommodate Wheeler... if that's the problem. Wheeler vs. the Angels w/o Trout? Looks like the Angels have no chance, but turned into a cliffhanger. Even when you know, you never know.

Recalling last season, wondering whether the Phils were ever gonna get competitive, vs this season, wondering when they're gonna overtake the Braves. Could be this week. The season is a lot more exciting when your team isn't behind by 15 games.

[zambonir]

Turnbull's next start might not be for a month. Even two. We don't want it to be sooner because that will mean either Walker or Sanchez stink or someone got hurt. The ideal - if cruel - solution would be to option either Turnbull or Sanchez to the minors and keep them on a starting routine/workload, but Turnbull doesn't have to accept the assignment and Sanchez is out of options. And even if Turnbull would go down - Phillies could simply guarantee all the incentives in his contract, including paying the same rate in AAA, to make it worth his while - those would be some wasted innings. And he already went through a lot (filing two grievances against Detroit) to earn his right to refuse that assignment.

The idea of the piggy back is to keep them both in the starter's routine. Every five days, 4-5 innings (depending on which one goes longest). Only variable is one of them doesn't get to to pitch in the first innings. Turnbull would likely be the first man up unless the opposing team was stacked with lefties at the top of their order. But then you truly don't have an eighth reliever (as with a six-man rotation) rather than a long guy who might pitch twice a week.

[andyb]

Piggybacks really don't work because most teams decide they want to use their closer and other high leverage arms at the end of games. So some sort of 5/4 arrangement just never happens unless the team is in a blowout.

More realistic use of Turnbull will be for 2-3 innings every 3-4 days. More innings and more rest if he has to come in earlier. But I just see him pitching the 6th and 7th as a bridge to any game where we are ahead - or eating larger number of innings when we are behind.

[zambonir]

Yeah a 4/3 seems more possible. Or just a 3/3. They semi-script all of it anyway. But while Thomson has pretty much either changed his tune or played it coy so far, the current narrative does seem to be leaning towards piggyback (and if Sanchez is the #2 Turnbull gets incentive-reaching starts and innings more easily). And it does seem to be about cosmetics... not making him come out of the bullpen or pitch in low-leverage spots as a reliever.

[allentown]

Piggybacks really don't work because most teams decide they want to use their closer and other high leverage arms at the end of games

And most teams have over-worked closers and high-leverage relievers as they move into the playoffs. The way he has been pitching, Turnbull IS a high leverage arm. The closer can always come in if the second pitcher in the piggyback falters. Another high leverage reliever can come in if the piggyback starter falters. Bullpen games are awful.

[zambonir]

The question is will Turnbull be a high-leverage arm if he's in a different role/rhythm?

And you could ask the same about Walker (though clearly last year he also hadn't performed well late, and didn't throw well behind the scenes either).

Bullpen games aren't fun to watch, question is, do they work any better or worse than the traditional model. I think their main failing is that the "bulk" pitcher usually just isn't that good. But here we are stipulating he is.

[andyb]

I think their main failing is that the "bulk" pitcher usually just isn't that good. But here we are stipulating he is.

Well we are stipulating that the guy who has never relieved in his major and minor league career will be a good bulk reliever because he had a hot month as a starter.

No matter what though, we are just not going to stick with Turnbull into his 4th inning regularly in the 8th or 9th inning of a 3-2 game. Rob is a bit unconventional in his bullpen use and has shown he can adapt a bit, but he is just going to turn to Alvarado and Hoffman and Kerkering in those situations.

[phillychuck]

4/4/1 can work where the "1" is the day's "closer". It's really out-of-the-box, though, and hard to get buy-in from the 4/4 guys.

[phillychuck]

Rob is a bit unconventional in his bullpen use and has shown he can adapt a bit, but he is just going to turn to Alvarado and Hoffman and Kerkering in those situations.

And maybe Seranthony, still...

[zambonir]

Crudely though, it's unlikely more than 25-33% of those starts would end up being closer-worthy, whether that is due to big leads or the Phillies being behind. After all, only around half of a team's wins - almost exactly in the case of the 2023 Phillies - tend to require a save, though blown saves and losses and ties are also part of that leverage context.

The bigger variable would be how the piggyback pitchers perform. If they get dinged for a few runs early and/or put on a few base runners in their third or fourth inning, they won't get the same slack as a starter.

We shall see, but what it sounds like now is Turnbull is the guy who would open and go 4-5, and Sanchez (who is after all a more experienced reliever too) the second man up.

[andyb]

And why do we only want 4 innings out of Walker and Sanchez? Going relatively deep into games is actually their strength. If they are pitching well there is no reason to get them out of there after 65 pitches (hopefully) and 4 innings. True tandems might work better if you are talking high velocity strikeout pitchers that throw lots of pitches and might get tired because of the high effort. Walker and Sanchez are much more "pitch to contact" guys.

[zambonir]

And why do we only want 4 innings out of Walker and Sanchez? Going relatively deep into games is actually their strength.

Is it? I think of deep as being 6-7 innings and those guys as being more like 5-6 inning starters. I know Walker often started badly and then managed to hang around longer.

Walker is not being discussed in the piggyback role at all though. Only Sanchez, because he would pair with Turnbull as a lefty. And we would only want 3 or 4 innings out of him because he's not looking so good lately, whereas Turnbull is. Which takes us back to the idea of just replacing him of course.

[zambonir]

Apparently Marsh and Bohm are ringing the Sixers bell tonight. The joke is it's usually better luck if it's someone lame, missed opportunity to get Nick!

[andyb]

Marte to IL. Jose Ruiz up from LHV. Need to fix Seranthony or the bullpen could get pretty thin.

Phillies RHP Marte (shoulder) lands on injured list

[RolenRules]

All the more reason why it is good that we have starting pitcher depth that can cover bullpen innings in the short term if needed.

If Walker can ramp up velocity 2 mph I think he can resume his past few years' success. By the same token he might need to be on a lower pitch count due to his shoulder (?) issues. If so, it makes sense to me to use Sanchez in a piggyback role for Walker's starts at least in the short term.

[zambonir]

I don't think Walker has any pitch count issue. That was a minor injury and he threw 102 pitches in his last rehab start (hitting that target was also why his rehab ended so quickly). His first start back didn't end well obviously but that was just a bad inning not fatigue (he was stronger later, stuff-wise).

I think this is all the more reason to use that sixth starter as a true reliever rather than an every five days piggyback guy. It's not like Marte was ever supposed to be one of their Top 6 relievers. But if if SD isn't either they need Kerkering to step it up. They could just make Turnbull the right-handed Strahm, but they are obviously hesitating to take him out of the starter's routine.

Ruiz wasn't on the 40 and doesn't have option so they must think he'll stick. He was good in the spring and he's been good in AAA. Marte and Ortiz can both just be optioned once they come off IL.