2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[phillychuck]

I'm not expecting much from Walker today. Hope I am wrong.

I just hope he's out there on the mound in the 5th inning...and Turnbull is warmed up.

[bkox]

Phillies will make an announcement after game about rotation vs. Angels

Sanchez will definitely start Mon. Wheeler's turn is Tue but it's possible Turnbull starts Tue and Wheeler Wed

Thomson said going to a 6-man beyond that would give guys too much rest with off-days May 2 & 9

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) April 28, 2024

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I just hope he's out there on the mound in the 5th inning...and Turnbull is warmed up.

It won’t be Turnbull coming out of the bullpen today. The Phillies want to give him a full 4 days of rest after his last start.

[bkox]

Rob Thomson says Sánchez will start Monday, Turnbull will start on Tuesday, and Wheeler will start on Wednesday. He said they will make a decision on where Turnbull will pitch after those games.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) April 28, 2024

[phillychuck]

He (Walker) survived today...his best inning was the 5th where he hit 93 a couple of times and got a couple of Ks. He didn't miss a lot of bats, to be sure.

[donaldorc]

Alec Bohm has just been named NL player of the week. Well deserved!

[Lucky_Beagle]

What is happening with defending the runner game? Phillies have given up 29 steals (tied 2nd) and have only thrown out 3 base runners. 91% success rate.....It's possible the caught steals were even pickoff when the runner took off for 2nd base.
7 stolen bases with no caught stealing against Stubbs
Runners have stolen 7 bases without being caught against Sanchez

[bkeich]

Yea, Realmuto started the season strong, but has been in a throwing slump. Not sure if it is him or the pitchers, some just don’t hold runners on well.

SB% is way up with the new rules I believe, but that doesn’t explain how bad we have been.

SSS and maybe two older catchers

On the upside, the Mets have caught 1 out of 34.

[Callison]

Had a chance to move 1/2 game behind the Braves, but Dominguez handed it to the Angels. Wasn't long ago this guy was dominant. Had a couple bad outings recently, though. The pen is looking shaky.

Phils; hitting suddenly disappeared, too.

Been very anxious to see how Kerkering would pitch after missing ST. First outing, looked ready. Yesterday, not so much, Just needs more work, IMHO. Has a big role to fill - could become the closer the Phils need.

If Turnbull turns in another gem - he's 3 for 4 - he may have done enough to stay in the starting rotation, even though the Phils can hardly wait to make him a long reliever.

[bkeich]

Astros to option 1B Abreu to spring training facility

Proof that you don’t have to wait until mid season to remove a veteran from the lineup. Castellanos has not been much better

[zambonir]

Yup I posted in the MLB thread. But the player still has to accept the demotion for something like this. Very rare. Last time it happened here was probably Brett Myers in 2008.

Also a lot easier to just go hang out at the complex than actually get sent to the minors (Bryce wasn't even willing to do that for rehab last year, not that he hasn't other times).

Since the Phillies actually don't have any players (let alone prospects) who are better than Castellanos and Castellanos is not 37 years old, I don't think this sort of drastic action is called for quite yet. Of course, arguably the Astros don't have anyone better than Abreu either (since their prospect is going to play OF and their other 1B is Jon Singleton).

I really think the NLCS, and the idea that Castellanos had to change his approach instead of just still doing what worked for him for nearly all of 2023 as well as the Phillies' most productive hitter in the NLDS (ahead of Harper even), has broken him. The only question that remains is, does he continue trying to change and come out of it having adjusted, or does he just try to get back to what he was and it either works or he is done forever?

[bkeich]

With Castellanos’ horrible defense it is not that clear he is not replaceable. Baseball Reference has him at 0.8 WAR over the last 3 seasons total, even last year he was only at 1.0 WAR.

The problem is really his defense where he has -4.1 WAR over the last 3 seasons. Even with last years very good offensive season (2.5 WAR) he is still at 98 OPS+ in his time in Philadelphia.

Even at his best he is bad. Pache would probably outperform him strictly because he could put up a positive defensive WAR and honestly couldn’t be worse offensively than he has been this year.

It isn’t one month, it has been 2 seasons and 1 month. The money is spent. He should be our #4 OF and PH until he proves otherwise.

Pache has 1.3 dWAR over the last 3 seasons, which adds up to about 1/2 season of innings. He has 0.8 WAR in the last 2 seasons in Philly total, strongly because of his defense.

The other advantage of benching Castellanos is it would stop Rob from doing silly things like batting him cleanup and making the problem worse. He would certainly hit Pache 8th.

[zambonir]

I'm not a Nick fan and I agree Pache could probably go out there every day and out-WAR him, though I don't think there are many fans in Philadelphia who could live with that offensively. And I'm not even sure it's really true - he has a positive WAR now because he never plays, if he started hitting four times a game I'm not sure the fielding would outweigh it.

Nick had a great 2023. He was an all-star on merit. He had an .860 OPS in August and an .816 OPS in September (July was his only bad month) He was the team's most productive hitter in the NLDS. And he's signed for another two seasons. Terrible contract, based on the fallacy that he's actually the guy he was in 2021 (which he has to be to outweigh the defense). But if that 2023/NLDS player is still in there somewhere the Phillies still have 55 million or so reasons to try and find him.

And in the meantime, he's not hurting the team at all, thanks to Bohm and Turner from the right side and the pitching. Replacing him isn't going to send the Phillies rocketing past the Braves. The team is doing great and can carry one or two struggling players up to a point. The reason the Astros couldn't is right there in their W-L.

The move is obviously still to trade Pache and get a lefty to play RF a couple of times a week. Just having another RHB isn't really that useful.

[Austinfan]

The only good sign was Castellanos walking 3 times, instead of striking out on low breaking balls.
Until he does this on a regular basis, it's a fluke
He should bat 8th until he shows he can hit, and screw his ego, at some point you have to produce

[zambonir]

Nobody cares about his ego, just what may or may not get him on track. He probably should hit 8th but it doesn't really matter versus sixth or seventh. I don't think any of those spots massage his ego. He's only hit fourth once and fifth three times. Either way playing through it is just as likely to get him going as sitting him for a few days. Especially when there's no one better.

Always easier for fans to get mad at a player than a front office leader who failed to sign a good bench outfielder (not to mention gave Nick this deal in the first place). But I'd say he's still doing a pretty good job.

[bkeich]

lol. 3-4, 2 runs scored, RBI, game tying HR in the 9th.

I take credit for all of it​

[Austinfan]

I'm not getting excited quite yet!

With Nick, it's all about plate discipline, he can handle FBs and breaking stuff up and over the plate.

He just consistently digs a hole for himself chasing off speed stuff low and away - I mean he's got over a decade of experience - you'd think he'd have figured it out by now unless he can't pick up these pitches, in which case the last two years of his contract are going to be a bonfire.

[zambonir]

I've never been excited about Nick Castellanos. Didn't like the signing (who did?), and even this year would have rather seen Harper in RF and Hoskins at 1B and Nick either gone or on the bench backing up Marsh and Schwarber. But none of those things were realistically going to happen

So he's here and he can still help. And they can afford to carry him until he turns it around, or they can come up with a bench upgrade. Last resort would be to acquire a starting-caliber replacement at the trade deadline.

After that it will just be a matter of whether they can trade him or bury him, and they might have to fill that hole on the cheap next season.

[Callison]

Congrats to everybody that stayed with the game after the Marte disaster to see just about everything you could hope for as a Phils fan. Castellanos. AND Rojas!

The Phils have got to like what they see in Turnbull. 4 of 5 dominant performances. Can't be mistaken for luck. You gonna forsake this guy for Walker and Sanchez?

Can hardly wait to see the next chapter of the Alec Bohm show.

Anybody not think Wheeler is gonna tear up the Angels?

Braves are hearing footsteps.

[zambonir]

Don't you mean the Turner disaster?

(Still a disappointing outing for Marte obviously, and they need him if Seranthony's not right.)