2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[EastFallowfield]

Kinda think the Mets have gone into panic mode with their closer a round or two earlier than needed, but of course that might not come back to hurt them until the NLCS or later.

And, as John Clark tweeted:

Phillies record vs Mets this year: 7-6

7-3: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez starts

0-3: Taijuan Walker starts

[dicemen99]

I dunno. I think Amaro has settled into the role of a TV pundit. He's neither an insider nor a journalist (and his days as a guy in the game are also fading fast, much like Jim Bowden).

But I didn't listen to the podcast so I don't know what was really said. I have a hard time believing such gossip wouldn't find its way into print (be it Athletic, Inquirer, NBC or MLB) if it was really a serious concern. This sounds more like talk radio speculation (in podcast form).

But we've always known Ranger isn't durable. That part's not in doubt.

I'm not sure I agree with that with the current state of journalism and beat writers. I think that may have been the case a generation ago - when behind the scenes type of stuff was hinted at in print before finally getting dropped in full when things came to a head.

Nowadays I think this is the more the forum to leak that information. I don't think Matt Gelb is writing this article until the off-season if Rangers future with the Phillies is in clear doubt. I don't think MLB.com is looking for Zolecki to write something like this with the playoffs looming. But he was pretty quick to confirm that Ranger was "clearly out of shape" on the podcast (while not leading the discussion).

Sports journalism is a much different animal now IMO. Even at the Athletic.

[LA_s_Shallow_Thought]

A bit misleading, as Walker was only hot garbage in his last start against them (His other 2 performances were ok)

[zambonir]

Yeah I saw a stat that also broke it down into innings.

I'm kind of glad they have a day off. Playing five games in the last four days has got to catch up with them, probably just as well to let the adrenaline wear off.

Haven't we strafed Diaz like three times this year?

[EastFallowfield]

But also that last series at Citi Field the Phils needed one win and got it, not convinced they were trying as hard to win as the Mets were (not the players necessarily, but the managerial moves).

[Aquapong]

A huge advantage we have is starting pitching. They used Severino, Manaea, and Quintana just to get here. Peterson pitched the 9th today.

They will likely be at a severe pitching disadvantage for the first two games. Even so, we’ve lit up Quintana and Manaea in 2022 in the playoffs iirc.

[zambonir]

Yup and nobody seems to remember that we beat them two of three at home when the games really still mattered (and the other one was the Nola dud). Plus two of the season series were in London.

Obviously it's pretty simple. Don't lose one of the first two home games, like the Braves did to us. We are the team on the pedestal, no matter how bumpy the second half was.

So, do you pitch Sanchez in Game 2?

[Aquapong]

Sanchez is much better at home.

[VoteForKalas]

I do, yes. His home - road splits make it a no brainer IMO. Plus I trust Nola to pitch a good Game 3.

[bkeich]

Yup and nobody seems to remember that we beat them two of three at home when the games really still mattered (and the other one was the Nola dud). Plus two of the season series were in London.

Obviously it's pretty simple. Don't lose one of the first two home games, like the Braves did to us. We are the team on the pedestal, no matter how bumpy the second half was.

So, do you pitch Sanchez in Game 2?

Absolutely. Sanchez has a big home / road split (for some reason) and I would want either Wheeler or Nola for a game 7, if not both. By splitting them like that Nola could start a game 7 and possibly Wheeler could come in having pitched a few days before.

[LA_s_Shallow_Thought]

I was only referring to the Walker starts (Should have bolded it, as I was tired and being lazy). I obviously agree with your overall point, though.

[mdougherty12]

Yup and nobody seems to remember that we beat them two of three at home when the games really still mattered (and the other one was the Nola dud). Plus two of the season series were in London.

Obviously it's pretty simple. Don't lose one of the first two home games, like the Braves did to us. We are the team on the pedestal, no matter how bumpy the second half was.

So, do you pitch Sanchez in Game 2?

Absolutely. Sanchez has a big home / road split (for some reason) and I would want either Wheeler or Nola for a game 7, if not both. By splitting them like that Nola could start a game 7 and possibly Wheeler could come in having pitched a few days before.

The LDS is a 5 game series. Wheeler would be lined up for the game 5 start, if necessary.

[zambonir]

But you also have to consider the fact that Sanchez would be then be your Game 1 or 2 (and also therefore Game 6 or 7) starter in an NLCS (including on the road against the Dodgers). And that Aaron Nola is Aaron Nola.

[andyb]

Sanchez home/road splits do not concern me. The opposite was true in 2023 (though weirdly he had many more home starts than road starts).

I go Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Suarez and use Suarez out of the bullpen in other games if he is rested. Large sample sizes suggest Nola is a better bet to go deeper in games than Sanchez and the whole R/L switching matters less in the postseason. Plus Nola and Wheeler are very different looks back to back.

Let's not overthink. Nola is our number 2 until he pitches himself out of the job.

[Callison]

And that Aaron Nola is Aaron Nola.

He has been known for his lapses, but lately he's been steady. Can be dominant.

[zambonir]

Yeah if I could put down a prop bet on it I think it's Nola Sunday.

Sanchez has had his lapses too. We've seen him put it back together in September to where one doesn't have to be super-worried about him but he had an ERA over 5 two months this season. Anyone can have a bad start or two at any time but some quantities are more known than others.

[EastFallowfield]

Whoever starts on the road gets to pitch in the 4th best ballpark for pitchers, but we'll mostly hear about our 'bandbox' even though CBP is only the 9th friendliest to hitters (not counting random sites like London).

[zambonir]

Well, luckily we won't have to hear about it from the Mets announcers (and Smoltz is on the other series).

[el-pietro]

Game 1. Wheeler vs Kodai Senga.
Game 2. Sanchez vs Severino

Pleasantly surprised that Sanchez gets the nod at home. Very surprised to see Senga announced

[flyers19rw]

Unless the Phillies hitters are selective at the plate it doesn’t matter who is pitching, they’ll lose. The swinging for the fences on every opponent’s pitch will be their undoing.