2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

zambonir 2024-09-28 00:13:29 UTC #562

It looks like they didn't properly edit/revise the article. It lists Walker on the roster but the piece itself says:

Turnbull is listed as the last man in the Phils’ bullpen, although he might not be ready by then. If he isn’t, Walker, Kolby Allard, Tyler Gilbert and Max Lazar are options.

https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-2024-postseason-faq

Aquapong 2024-09-28 00:42:15 UTC #563

I’m starting to think Suarez is going to be the 4th starter in the playoffs.

zambonir 2024-09-28 00:52:15 UTC #564

I think he's already clearly the 4th-best starter, and if you start Sanchez at home Nola would obviously be #3 even if it wasn't also a L/R thing. But it all depends on the opponent too of course.

Austinfan 2024-09-28 02:53:22 UTC #565

I'm starting to think they may have to shut down Suarez as well as Walker.
Going to be an interesting negotiation with Ranger, probably 1-2 year "prove you can pitch 150 innings) deal.

zambonir 2024-09-28 03:27:02 UTC #566

Well if you really want to be that negative it's more like do you or don't you give him a QO? But we'll see how next season goes.

Florida_Sunshine 2024-09-28 04:55:39 UTC #567

Right now, I see him as totally gassed out. He needs rest. And that is not being negative, but realistic.

bkeich 2024-09-28 12:59:52 UTC #568

Suarez is clearly either in a slump or tired, but his ERA in this slump is still less than 4. His September has 1 very good game, 2 solid games and 2 bad games.

There is no comparison to Walker, who is completing the worst season a starting pitcher has had for the Phillies in 94 years, since the odd statistical 1930 team that had extreme offense and horrible pitching. He is the first pitcher in ML history to lose 10 straight starts for a 90 win team. Basically, he is the anti-Steve Carlton who had a great season for a bad team (1972)

andyb 2024-09-28 13:22:08 UTC #569

Suarez might be best utilized as a 2-3 inning reliever in the postseason anyway. I know he started slowly yesterday, but he would prepare differently for shorter outings. Potentially use a little more velocity than he would in a start.

It is not ideal, but it is actually fitting his role to what the team needs, even if that does not completely fill the one start a series the 4th starter needs to make. Plenty of bullpen arms and off days for that.

The Suarez long term contract negotiations were always going to be tricky as durability is a concern. He is just a little guy that depends on all cylinders firing for him to be successful and the back is preventing that this season. He'll probably go for a shorter deal with a higher AAV (3/60?). Whether it makes sense for the Phillies to offer that is an open question of course. It is not our money though. I don't care how the owners spend and sometimes waste money as long as it does not affect overall player acquisition. We probably don't want to get back into compensation pick free agents and Suarez is not that. He might even be a QO guy that goes an extra year to prove he is healthy (and the Phillies might offer that because they like the one-year deal).

zambonir 2024-09-28 13:47:26 UTC #570

Sarris notes that last year the team with the eighth-best rotation lost to the team with the 15th-best rotation in the WS (and we lost to that 15th-best rotation too). Phillies currently 3rd in his preferred metric (ppERA).

allentown 2024-09-28 19:43:23 UTC #571

Suarez has pitched well for us this year. He's tired now, it seems to me. He's passed 150 IP, which is a lot for him. I'd give him rest. When you look at our pitching staff as a whole, it is dependent on starters throwing a lot of IP. In fact, for the NL as a whole, Nola is #2, Wheeler #3, Sanchez #7 in IP. Suarez has to have the most IP of any #4 SP in baseball. This pattern holds more years than not.

bkox 2024-09-28 19:54:01 UTC #572

not sure where else to put this... but this is an amazing story on Bryce Harper

zambonir 2024-09-28 20:15:07 UTC #573

They tried their best. He did not spend a month on the IL because he was that hurt, they deliberately slow-played it to give him more time off and lower his innings. He actually pitched more innings than this in 2022, but they did not want to push him towards 170 or 180. He also skipped the All-Star game, though it was probably a mistake that he came back and made one start after that.

And of course he isn't supposed to be the #4 (and was our second-best starter in the first half). Now that he is, rest is pretty much built into the role. He won't be scheduled to make two starts in any series and his outings will all be short (as they were last year too) If he's able to contribute out of the pen once or twice that will be a bonus. He just needs to pitch more like he did the two starts before this last one.

Sounds like they are only going to have a single simulated game/scrimmage the whole week, though hitters will face live pitching some other days.

allentown 2024-09-28 21:10:12 UTC #574

Yes, all of what? 4 more IP.

zambonir 2024-09-28 21:27:34 UTC #575

Right but that was clearly the number they had in mind once he ran into trouble at mid-season. He made 29 starts last year and had one minimum-time IL stay. This year they made sure he was down for a month and he ended with 27 starts. On July 1 I'm sure both he and the team were eyeing 180-200 IPs. And Sanchez had nearly all of the same issues (in terms of IPs and a period of struggle) but w/o an actual injury or break.

His two IL stints in 2023 (dating back to spring training) and lesser level of performance made for a lower-usage year.

allentown 2024-09-28 22:30:49 UTC #576

I know you must realize how few NL pitchers pitch 200 innings in a season. Not even a handful.

zambonir 2024-09-28 22:35:09 UTC #577

Of course. But that doesn't mean what I said isn't true.

"I wouldn't label him as a No. 3 anymore if he takes that leap," Realmuto said. "He's so good that he'd become 1A, 1B, 1C for me. Like, he's that good. He's got that type of talent. So, hopefully, he can take that jump. It's not easy to stay healthy for 200 innings, but Ranger's got it in him for sure."

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/ranger-suarez-throws-shutout-vs-rockies

The Phillies would love to see Suárez make 30-plus starts and reach 200 innings this year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranger-suarez-struggles-in-loss-vs-braves

zambonir 2024-09-28 23:09:58 UTC #578

allentown 2024-09-29 14:25:12 UTC #579

I don't doubt that for a second. The Phillies want more IP out of their SP than perhaps any other team and thus give them a longer leash as they start to show signs of fading during a game. My point is this: very, very few pitchers are capable of 200 IP in a season in today's baseball game. Last season there were only 4 in all of MLB to pitch 200 IP and the max was 206 I P. Wheeler was one of the 4 and Nola was 7th in IP. We are no longer in the Robin Roberts pitch-to-contact approach to baseball strategy. To log 200 IP in 30 starts requires an average of almost 7 IP per start. From what we've seen from Suarez, I think that is an unrealistic expectation which will ruin him if the Phillies push for it. I also think striving for 200 IP in the regular season from Wheeler and Nola is a big reason they've faded in the playoffs.

OK, I blooped that. The above stats are for this year. Last year there were 5 MLB pitchers with 200 IP. The Max was 216 and Nola was only Phillies pitccher in top 10 (tied for 10th) with 194 IP.

Austinfan 2024-09-29 14:41:01 UTC #580

I think 30 starts and 180 IP is a realistic goal.

zambonir 2024-09-29 15:06:55 UTC #581

I think the 200 number was merely something to motivate Ranger. 180 was a realistic goal had he not gotten hurt.

I think the Phillies probably understand more about the game changing than we do. Pitch counts and IPs have never been an exact science, nor is the notion that Wheeler and Nola faded in the playoffs anymore than a notion. The current focus is more on types of pitches, stress of innings and actually measuring fatigue based on their stuff and mechanics and the way the pitches move.

The Phillies current position, while certainly to be taken with a grain of salt in that they wouldn't really admit otherwise for various reasons, is that Ranger is 100%, but has struggled to rebuild his mechanics after the injury, and will be working a lot on that this week without necessarily throwing a ton of live balls. They do seem to be sort of conceding that he should have made a couple of rehab starts.

Also in that story (linked a few posts up) Turnbull got up to 52 pitches Friday and will pitch in the intrasquad game Wednesday. He may yet be in the NLDS.