2023 Rule 4 Draft Discussion (GDT)

[phillychuck]

Miller or Soto for me...Phils will probably go off the board. Anyone on Squire's list is really a decent pick.

[fish]

S

I think I want Miller...Soto is ok too.

Miller gets rave reviews but I just haven’t seen a video of him where I saw something that wowed me. I’d go Colin Houck or Ty Floyd.

[julio]

Aiden Miller!

[phillychuck]

Miller it is. They are obviously bugging my phone.

[fish]

Well, not my favorite but all my favorites were picked ahead of him. It could be that he looks entirely different now than he does on the video after recovering from hamate surgery. Feels a lot like the Bryson Scott pick where they got someone with solid skills who slid a bit. Safe with upside.

[phillychuck]

If you could trade Miller for Waldrep at this very moment would you? I don't think I would.

[phillychuck]

Logenhagen's scouting report:

"Miller has among the fastest hitting hands in the entire 2023 draft, his bat speed gives him impressive present power and his frame portends more. He also has a gnarly bat wrap that his bat speed currently enables. As fun as it is to watch him swing, it's often tough for hitters to have such an extreme wrap and succeed against upper-level velocity, but that's still a long way off for Miller. He already swings underneath his fair share of in-zone fastballs because of the looped path his bat takes through the zone, and there are past examples of prospects succeeding with swings like this until they reach the big leagues and then struggling to make adjustments, like Carter Kieboom. Despite the bat wrap, Miller still managed a 2-to-1 ball in play-to-swinging strike ratio against showcase foes according to Synergy, but at some point in the future it might require a tweak. Miller will be 19 on draft day, but he still has one of the more projectable frames in the class and is likely to continue adding power, so much that he has the margin for error to have a below-average hit tool and still profile at third base because of his power."

[julio]

The downside to Miller's being 19 when drafted is that the Phils will one less season before he needs to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

[bkox]

27. Philadelphia: Aidan Miller, SS, FL HS

Top-15 talent to our board, really believe in the RH hit tool and power upside, solid defender as a SS now but chance for plus D at 3B w/ plus arm, believe in middle-order impact here. #PGDraft #RingTheBell

— Brian Sakowski ( @B_Sakowski_PG ) July 10, 2023

[Austinfan]

If it's even a consideration, they blew the draft pick.

[zambonir]

Well, that's probably true. Best case he should be standing at 3B for the Phillies in 2026 and less-good case he's still an easy add to the 40 and a potential call-up in 2027.

[fish]

Highschool pitchers with a better than not chance of flaming out, but the Marlins getting Noble Meyer and Thomas White- man, that’s a fun dream.

[nycphils]

I need a realistic top 5 that might be available for us in Round 3...

[Aquapong]

We’ll see in a few years what we really have. I always think it’s funny to hear the panel talk about high school kids and compare them to established stars as comps.

[allentown]

It's a solid pick for their place in the draft. Anyone picked there is a gamble. It's a deep draft, but this is more like a 2nd round pick than a first round. The reasonably high-probability, plus-ceiling guys are gone in the top 5-10. He fell for a reason, possibly the hamate. Hamels and Utley also fell to the Phillies.

[fish]

I need a realistic top 5 that might be available for us in Round 3..

I sure would like high school lefty Paul Wilson, rhp Liam Peterson or 6’7” slugger George Wolkow, but given their pool to draft high school it either has to be a Jordan Viars-type or they go all in and every pick after is under slot.

[phillychuck]

Remaining players, from Big Ed at the other board (keep in mind some of these may not be signable with the money we have remaining):

College
Jack Hurley (Virginia Tech OF, MLB #36)
Maui Ahuna (Tennessee SS, MLB #48)
Hunter Owen (Vanderbilt LHP, MLB #56)
Travis Honeyman (Boston College OF, MLB #61)
Jace Bohrofen (Arkansas OF, MLB #66)
Juaron Watts-Brown (Oklahoma State RHP, MLB #67)
Tanner Witt (Texas RHP, MLB #76) -- son of former MLB DH/1B Kevin
Teddy McGraw (Wake Forest RHP, MLB #84)
Quinn Mathews (Stanford LHP, MLB #86)
Josh Rivera (Florida SS, MLB #87)
Grayson Hitt (Alabama LHP, MLB #88)
Tanner Hall (Southern Miss RHP, MLB #92)
Homer Bush Jr. (Grand Canyon OF, MLB #94) -- son of former MLB IF and current Staten Island (Atlantic League) manager Homer
Cole Foster (Auburn SS, MLB #95)
Levi Wells (Texas State RHP, MLB #96)
Nolan McLean (Oklahoma State RHP, MLB #97)
Hunter Hollan (Arkansas LHP, MLB #100)

High School
Travis Sykora (TX HS RHP / Texas commit, MLB #40)
Cameron Johnson (IMG Academy LHP / LSU commit, MLB #42) -- played on the Phillies Scout Team 17U
Cole Schoenwetter (CA HS RHP / UC Santa Barbara commit, MLB #43)
Roch Cholowsky (AZ HS SS / UCLA commit, MLB #44)
Cooper Pratt (MS HS SS / Mississippi commit, MLB #45)
Paul Wilson (OR HS LHP / Oregon State commit, MLB #51) -- son of former MLB lefty starter Trevor
Steven Echavarria (NJ HS RHP / Florida commit, MLB #60)
Eric Bitonti (CA HS SS / Oregon commit, MLB #68)
Trent Caraway (CA HS SS / Oregon State commit, MLB #70)
George Wolkow (IL HS OF / South Carolina commit, MLB #71)
Landen Maroudis (FLA HS RHP / NC State commit, MLB #72)
Zane Adams (TX HS LHP / Alabama commit, MLB #73)
Brandon Winokur (CA HS 3B / UCLA commit, MLB #74)
Will Gasparino (CA HS OF / Texas commit, MLB #75)
Antonio Anderson (GA HS SS / Georgia Tech commit, MLB #77)
Aidan Smith (TX HS OF / Mississippi State commit, MLB #78)
Caden Sorrell (TX HS OF / Texas A&M commit, MLB #79)
Joey Volchko (CA HS RHP / Stanford commit, MLB #80)
Liam Peterson (FL HS RHP / Florida commit, MLB #85) -- same HS as Andrew Painter and Doc's son Braden
Jake Brown (LA HS LHP / LSU commit, MLB #93)
Grant Gray (CA HS OF / UCLA commit, MLB #99)

I'm guessing we're leaning toward a college pitcher.

[Squire]

I'm not expecting a particularly aggressive day as we don't have the pool space and Barber doesn't punt too many picks. Just hoping for 3 pitchers that are on a Top 250 list.

[andyb]

7 picks today and I would guess maybe only 2 HS. Barber does like to select at least one HS arm in the top 10, but I am expecting more the 6th round type that will sign for close to slot like last year. Today might be 3 or 4 real picks with the rest under slot too.

[andyb]

Draft is back on. We are about 20 picks away from the Phillies next pick but that should be in about 20 minutes (i.e. around 2:30 ET).