2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[BostonRoss]

My comment about overrating Bohm is consistent with what you said about him being considered a folk hero and not being thought of as a candidate for an upgrade. And I think you’re right!

I don’t see how anyone could overrate Riley or Arenado from any perspective. I don’t see an equivalence to Bohm.

[zambonir]

Ok, so Ross is right

Bohm is still among the very, very worst third basemen in MLB by Defensive Runs Saved (minus 4, which ranks 6th-worst out of 38 players with at least 200 innings. One of the few behind him is Jean Segura). He is a worse 3B than Hoskins was a 1B, and on top of that he is also a worse 1B! (minus-2 DRS and 9th-worst in MLB out of about 40 guys. Hoskins was slightly positive last year).

He is what he is, arguably right now you can live with it given he's making contact and producing runs. But he won't be worth his salary by 2025, so if there's a chance to get better before then, you do it, especially given he is not a good hitter - at all! - against RHPs. He gets enough hits with guys on base to make it look okay but a .678 OPS/83 OPS+ is not acceptable (at either position), and not an everyday player.

Kody Clemens, incidentally, was +2 at 1B but didn't hit enough to be worth it.

And Sosa is minus-3 at 3B in 402 innings, which certainly tracks with the eye test. He is not the answer, and should either stay on the bench or go be a platoon SS somewhere. But any LH-hitting and better-fielding 3B would make this team better.

[el-pietro]

Both fangraphs and baseball reference have hin at 0.3 WAR
He has an OPS+ of 104 and a wRC+ of 101.

Hes fine. Hes essentially a league average hitter. His defense is better but its not like he's a gold glove candidate.

I dont think he's ever gonna tap into the power at this point. They should consider upgrading at third if tye opportunity presents itself. He's not a black hole over there but there's room for improvement

[BostonRoss]

I think baseball-reference has Bohm's career WAR at 0.3. For 2023 it's 0.0.

To be clear, I think that Bohm is better than the alternatives on the Phillies. Sosa is better defensively but provides less offense; Harrison is worse; and so was Clemens. I'm not recommending replacing him with Scott Kingery!

But I don't think he is a league average hitter, at least not for a starting 3B. His OPS coming into today was .749, and his OBP was .322. And I don't see that his defense has improved though he has played more at 1B than 3B this year so far. There is a lot of room for improvement.

That said, I don't see many possible trade possibilities other than Jeimer Candelario. The options among non-contenders aren't any better (except for Arenado and Manny Machado, who are a but pricy. Ryan McMahon is better than Bohm, but he is locked up by the Rockies at a reasonable price for several more years.

[el-pietro]

Thanks to the Brewers and Giants losing today the Phillies are in the third wild card spot. Barely but they are in. Winning record of .536 vs .535 for both Milwaukee and San Francisco.

[zambonir]

The options among non-contenders aren't any better (except for Arenado and Manny Machado, who are a but pricy.

Nor are they available!

He may cost too much as well but Candelario seems perfect. Including the fact that he and Bohm could exist on the same roster, at least this year. Some combo of Sosa and Stott and TBD might even get you through next year in the middle IF.

I still think Turner to 3B Stott to SS 2B is much easier to fill, in the long run.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Thanks to the Brewers and Giants losing today the Phillies are in the third wild card spot

I know it’s kind of early to be monitoring the standings this closely, but I’ll admit that lately I’ve been rooting for the Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants, and Marlins to lose so that the Phillies could finally be positioned in one of the 3 spots.

[el-pietro]

Same. Id rather be in the last spot looking down rather than sitting behind a handful of teams. It really crowded.

[zambonir]

I tend to follow the run differential and projections just as closely, especially now the Phillies are finally positive. RD says Dodgers and Giants and Dbacks (two of the three) are practically locks but Phillies are the best of the rest. Fangraphs actually has us ahead of everyone but the Marlins for wild card.

[BostonRoss]

the Phillies are finally positive

As of Saturday!

[zambonir]

yes, things like that make it deceptive, but it still tends to work out pretty well in the end.

[zambonir]

After All-Star snub, Phillies stars have some making up to do in second half

The Phillies are on a pace that is more or less the same as virtually every successful season they’ve had since the start of the 2008 era.

The one exception is 2011, the year they became one of the best teams in MLB history to not win a pennant. Otherwise, here are their records through 84 games for every season in which they were at least somewhat relevant.

2023: 45-39
2022: 45-39
2021: 41-43
2020: N/A
2019: 44-40
2018: 47-37
2012: 37-47
2011: 52-31
2010: 44-40
2009: 46-38
2008: 45-39

Everyone forgets how ordinary those 2008-11 teams were before the All-Star break.

[phillychuck]

To Mr. David Murphy, "52-31 ain't ordinary." Maybe 2008-2010.

[zambonir]

If you read it closely enough to see who wrote it how did you miss: "The one exception is 2011....?"

(I agree I would have left it off the list too though, having said that, as well as 'otherwise.... Just kind of sloppy that he went on to say that too. Possibly just typo.)

I wouldn't have bothered including 2018 to 2021 either. Like, taken as a whole it doesn't seem to mean anything either way. But it does mean we make far too big a deal about how the team seems to be playing and what their record is when it's happening mid-season vs. how it might end up.

[schillingfan]

Phillies have played horrible in April, for like ten years. That’s one reason they have no all-stars.

[phillychuck]

Everyone forgets how ordinary those 2008-11 teams were before the All-Star break.

That would seem to include the 2011 season in the "ordinary" category explicitly. I agree, z, sloppy editing.

[Patchmk88]

Phillies’ Andrew Painter throws a bullpen session after a brief setback

Looks like Painter threw a bullpen yesterday. That’s probably good news considering the news a few days ago of his elbow being stiff. Hopefully he feels good over the next few days.

[allentown]

Phillies have played horrible in April, for like ten years. That’s one reason they have no all-stars.

Which is something the team's baseball-side management should have investigated antd fixed by now. You know if it was the Eagles, they would be re-examining everything they do: ST practice and conditioning activities, who plays how many ST innings, off-season conditioning, ST instruction, how the roster is constructed. How the coaches motivate players at start of season. It does seem that the team recognized the problem with Nola and Wheeler running out of juice during the playoffs.

[Jazzhead]

Biggest reason we have just one All Star is Philly phans just aren't that interested in casting All Star ballots. It certainly isn't pushed at the ballpark. As Mrs. Jazz puts it, fewer Phillies at the All Star game means more Phillies getting the rest they need to keep playing their best after the break.

[zambonir]

I seriously doubt the Braves got all those votes because their fans were motivated to participate while attending games. They don't even do paper ballots anymore do they? I think the Internet voting (and with no real limit on repeat votes) has just made it more of a national process.

And either way that's only for the starters. Most of the roster is picked by the players and MLB (for instance, Albies, Riley, Olson and Swanson were all player picks; Alonso was MLB. As was Castellanos. Soler was also an MLB pick, so they could have chosen Harper. I reckon he probably did signal he wouldn't go).