2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Last year was a miracle run. I'm far from convinced that any deadline deal can yield close to a repeat.

Hey you weren't convinced last year either. But of course! They could easily still miss the playoffs or lose in the first round. But there is no way they are not going to take the shot (unless they go back to playing .400 ball for the next five weeks).

[allentown]

I don't deny any of that, but think we need to also consider how we fell into an almost decade-long abyss after the 2008 WS. To be honest, it wouldn't be bringing back Hoskins for a year next season that was the killer, it would be signing a comped FA 1B, with the next biggest problem being cleaning out our upper minors OF talent in a trade this deadline.

[allentown]

All true. Last year was a happy fluke. 2003 rather than 2008. I do worry about the abyss brought on by a stripped, inferior farm and a costly, aging, inflexible MLB team with too many guys who should DH. One can say DD will be more capable of avoiding a decade of foundering, but will he even be GM for the years that matter. Do we know which of Rojas and Muzziotti is the real keeper? Does DD and his staff?

[zambonir]

Would there even be a comped FA 1B? I guess Cron might get a QO but I don't think the Phillies will do that. Or anyone.

[andyb]

I think DD would be more likely to trade for a younger 1B or OF than go with a young and untested platoon. Where he might go young is with starting pitching if our kids look ready next year.

[bkox]

There are no big star infielders hitting free agency this year. Hoskins might be the best 1B in the class. Josh Bell has fallen off a cliff so far this season. Cron will be 34 and very much a Coors field creation based on his splits. There really is only one superstar hitter in FA this year.. Ohtani.

Now pitching... you have Nola, Urias, Kershaw, Morton (who would be 40) and Sonny Gray. And also Marcus Strohman who has an opt out. Kershaw (if he actually leaves the Dodgers.. he is a bit upset with them right now)and Morton probably could be gotten as one year deals as a bridge to the young guns. Only Urias is under 30.

[bkox]

Speaking of Free agents... we focus on Nola and Hoskins.. but if Alvarado remains elite, whats it gonna cost to sign him?

[Austinfan]

I don't see Harper returning to the OF, he was below average last year as a fielder, and will be two years older. At some point he'll have to move to 1B, this is a good time to start.

Schwarber has to move to DH, he's a butcher in LF.

But if you do that, 1B/DH are far more productive offensively, which then means you can live with less offense if it comes with much better OF defense.

[Aquapong]

If Pache, Marsh, Rojas, or Rojas can play good CF and at least hit passably, that’s a 2 war player. Schwarber can be moved to DH. Harper can be moved to LF if needed to avoid the max effort throws from RF. Unfortunately that still leaves Castellanos in RF, but that’s the way the team is built. Maybe Harper’s elbow will be ready for RF next year.

Marsh was a pedestrian hitter for the Angels, but I guess they saw something they thought they could coach up.

[allentown]

But that's the problem. Every player starts in the majors as an untested rookie. If you don't trust your prospects you are doomed to field an old, expensive team on the downslide. I believe rookie enthusiasm is also a plus for a team. I may be the minority, but I'm not sold on the tested Marsh, and he's been the most established of the CF possibilities on the team, and that includes moving Soto or Guthrie from the IF.

[nycphils]

Give Carlos de la Cruz a shot at 1B. No need to get someone - if he can’t make it, between Castillanos, Bohm, Harper and JT, they should have no problem covering 1B.

[Aquapong]

Guthrie was never really given a chance. Someone will claim him.

[Austinfan]

However, they moved Ortiz to 1B, and to Reading so Hall could start in Lehigh.
Which suggests they like De La Cruz better as a RF.

[mdougherty12]

Speaking of Free agents... we focus on Nola and Hoskins.. but if Alvarado remains elite, whats it gonna cost to sign him?

Alvarado signed a 3-year extension last offseason:

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/philadlephia-phillies-sign-jose-alvarado-three-year-contract-extension

[bkox]

oh oops.. MLB still showing him as a FA this offseason on the list I was looking at..

[andyb]

They are trying both De La Cruz and Ortiz at 1B to add versatility. They are in AA a long way from the majors. Doubt either is in consideration for this year and most likely not next year. They are not options at this point until they do much more.

[zambonir]

I'm more open to letting Nola walk than I was before. Not because I don't think he isn't still the best option, but there are some reasonable alternatives. Still think they'd have to sign a vet though. If two of the three kids are actually rotation-ready next year there will still be plenty of chances. If they don't keep Nola and don't sign a vet (or only get someone on a one-year deal) it will also be time to extend Wheeler.

Not sure why we think the GM that signed Schwarber and Castellanos in the first place, and has remained reasonably committed to Bohm at 3B, is actually sitting in his office thinking that Harper's fielding is an issue. It wasn't even the team's idea for him to play 1B IIRC, and it remains to be seen if he'd be any good at it (ditto all the other OFs). I don't believe he's ready to stop being an OF and there is no medical reason he has to stop being an OF once he's fully healed (just like pitcher pitch again after TJ surgery). And Bryce Harper is still the most powerful person in the clubhouse.

[Austinfan]

The best reason for Harper to stop playing OF is he isn't very good at it.
One of Harper/Castellanos have to move to 1B, 2 subpar OFs is a great way to stress a pitching staff.

[allentown]

Which is precisely why I want to keep both Rojas and Muzziotti in the organization to compete for OF jobs next season.

[phillychuck]

According to the publicly available defensive stats, Harper is the same RF he has always been, just about average, even in 2021. You are probably better overall with Harper in RF, Schwarber/Castellanos at DH/1B, upgrading the LF defense. Marsh and Muzziatti are probably about average in CF, maybe slightly above, but Rojas is elite, as is Pache. Turner and Stott are a good DP combo defensively, and JT is the best. This team is fine defensively going forward, especially up the middle where defense is most important.