2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Philsmania]

The Phillies are 31-21 in games started by Wheeler, Nola, Walker and Suarez

10-5 behind Walker
9-6 behind Wheeler
5-2 behind Suarez
7-8 behind Nola

They went 3-3 in the games Matt Strahm started as a non-opener.

They’re 4-10 in starts by Falter/opener/Covey/Sanchez

— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) June 19, 2023

The starting pitching seems to be coming around very nicely of late. Wheeler is back to being Wheeler, Suarez contiues to step up and Walker is really rounding into form. Strangely, right now, it almost seems like Nola is our #4 starter at the present time as he continues to get undone by one middle inning (5th, 6th or 7th) in which he unravels. Honestly, I feel we have a better chance of winning with one of the first three on the mound.

[andyb]

I am wondering if Castellanos is still ailing if they just bring him up in Covey's spot for a few days. A decision on somebody else like Harrison might eventually be needed, but we have a day off today and we can always bring a 13th pitcher back in a few days if we had to.

[zambonir]

Doesn't Castellanos just have a stomach bug or something? Let's hope he doesn't need to go on IL.

They just never seemed willing to play Cave in CF even with the platoon redundance, though I suppose it also just never came up because Marsh was the best hitter on the team during Cave's time here. Now, what would they do, actually demote Marsh for a little break? Unlikely but not unreasonable.

Harrison, Hall, Cave - it will all get shaken out by the trade deadline. Ellis probably doesn't stay on the 40 (for either Marchan or Hall). Clemens job is still not set in stone. And I reckon one of Muzziotti or Rojas could still be included in a major deal (especially if they feel good about Pache and want to bring Cave back up).

Dombrowski's the sort of GM who might surprise, but more likely we still don't see a trade until after the all-star break. And given Schwarber's knee and Harper's elbow probably don't want to discard Cave too easily. He is also controlled through 2026 so if you think this is for real he could be the starting LF next year and not someone you just give up on to upgrade Harrison (whom they don't seem willing to get rid of anyway).

Hall's the one that I think could just as easily end up DFA'ed as traded (or if he's traded it's just in a package or a very lower level non-prospect).

[Austinfan]

Cave is 30, I'm sure looking forward, Muzzioti is the guy they'd project to LF.
A LH for RH bench player makes sense, LH hitters tend to be higher valued, Phillies have Hall, Cave, Muzzioti, Clemons.
Pache seems to have locked down a RH OF spot, Guthrie failed, Harrison failed, Ellis failed.
So ideally add a 1B/LF RH power type that fits a platoon, and those tend to be cheap.

Another issue is Sosa's declining hitting, along with Marsh, a real disappointment.
If Harper moves to first, Bohm back to 3B, Sosa to the bench and Harrison is a 5th wheel.
Schwarber DH, Muzzioti, RH in trade in LF, Marsh/Pache in CF, Castellanos in RF.

I'd be shocked if Rojas or De La Cruz are dealt, Phillies have too many 4th OF types to trade potential starters.
Crawford - Rojas - De La Cruz in a couple years.
And it's interesting they moved Ortiz to 1B, which I think is more a reflection of De La Cruz's potential.

[Callison]

You mention starting pitching, but two games ago the pen finally looked strong again - lots of pitchers who hadn't done well showed up. Big Rob resisted the urge to use forfeiter-Covey! And forfeiter-Falter remains safely at AAA!

The whole team SEEMS to be improving. The announcers said several times yesterday that the Phils' lineup is full of players that can carry a team for weeks. Phils fans have been saying that for MONTHS!!!

BUT show time tomorrow against the division-leading, evil empire. Ranger coming off a strong outing.

GO PHILS!!!

[Austinfan]

The key to a post-All star break run is getting Harper and Turner back on track - they should be the players who carry the team for weeks at a time. Schwarber has woke up, Castellanos is back, Stott and Bohm have shown improvement, JT is back to his career norm. While you'd want more from the bottom of the lineup, if Harper and Turner are putting up .900+ OPS, who cares what the 8th and 9th batter are doing!

[zambonir]

Crawford - Rojas - De La Cruz in a couple years.

Every year you project a future Phillies line-up with all homegrown players and it has literally never happened. Even in clusters of three instead of eight (long-term).

You trade away potential starters because you're getting value back and you have depth at the position (and limited 40-man space in the modern game). Granted we've got another month to see if this continues but if it does, I think the deadline trades they make are going to have a higher prospect cost than they did last year (and it's not like Moniak and O'Hoppe and Brown weren't nothing!). If Harper can't go to 1B they will get a 1B. If he can, they will get an OF (and a better one than you can get just flipping Cave for a RHB, though they really should make sure Cave himself isn't an answer. Then again if he isn't, he then has no trade value).

[zambonir]

Hadn't actually read this yet.

Phillies observations: Marsh goes to the video, Harper vs. lefties, possible...

Two 40-man roster members, Símon Muzziotti and Johan Rojas, have had solid seasons in the minors. Both outfielders are blocked in the majors, and that has led rival evaluators to speculate whether the Phillies will attempt to use them next month as trade chips to upgrade the edges of the big-league roster.

How the Phillies treat Rojas and Muzziotti will depend on the long-term view of Marsh and Pache in center. If the club is confident that one or both of them will hold the spot in the majors for the coming years, then it makes sense to dangle the prospects.

[bkox]

The Marlins have had the 3rd easiest schedule in all of MLB so far this year. Phillies have had the 9th toughest. Braves have had 19th toughest, Mets the 20th. https://t.co/3pNMin6grq

— John Stolnis ( @JohnStolnis ) June 19, 2023

[gmwannabe]

I don't think I'd give up any of those young players for a 36 year old Goldschmidt. I saw both Rojas and De La Cruz Friday night and both make good contact for hits. Those ropes had no "Reading effect" as some people say. Rojas just glides in the outfield as well. Not interested.
gm

[phillychuck]

The tough task (or at least one of them) for an organization is figuring out which minor leaguers to trade, and which will become above average regulars in the big leagues. Rojas barely has to hit to be above average with his exceptional CF defense and speed. De La Cruz has to hit at about 800 OPS or more to be an above average regular. Rojas would require an exceptional offer for me to trade him. De La Cruz a fair offer. I'm not dangling either one of them. Muzziotti is another story. If he is a ~.400 OPS lead off hitter with good doubles power and 5-10 HR per season, I think he is above average, too. He's definitely a good left fielder, and passable in CF (about Marsh's level). I'm not dangling him, either.

[andyb]

The Phillies will have to make decisions. In a year or two they can't have Marsh, Pache, Rojas, and Muziotti on a team that also has Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos. Even if one of them is playing 1B.

It is logical to trade a CF or two. Rojas will get the most in a trade. Pache is needed now if Marsh is slumping. Muzziotti is basically Marsh insurance so the Phillies should make a decision there.

The article notes that they face 6 RHPs this week. And need 2 40-man spots by Thursday. Sounds like we can get one by moving an injured AAA pitcher to the 60-day IL. But they should DFA Covey for the other spot. I'd bring Cave in now. If they need to switch him up later in the week with Bellatti then so be it. That is what options and a nearby AAA team are for.

[zambonir]

If those guys are hurt badly enough they could just move two of them to the 60. Only costs money and we saw how willing they were to do it last year. They can also waive Ellis. Either way I don't think they would go with an extra hitter. Would be nice to just swap Cave for Harrison - which would also keep Harrison out of the OF - but in addition to that not being a thing that would happen yet, the Phillies' need for a RHB is bigger than the upcoming six-game stretch

[bkox]

The Phillies have recalled INF Darick Hall from his rehab assignment with Lehigh Valley (AAA), reinstated him from the 60-day IL (right thumb sprain) and optioned him to Lehigh Valley. To make room on the 40-man roster, OF Dalton Guthrie has been designated for assignment.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) June 19, 2023

[zambonir]

Haha wow. I almost said it but I figured he'd last a little longer. He just isn't needed (or good enough) as a CF and the Phillies have 2B/3B guys to spare (including Harrison, like it or not). I guess they'd rather have Ellis's power too.

[Callison]

gm - that's some high praise.

IMHO, old Goldschmidt may be old, but he could fill a void on the Phils with an All Star - a decisive upgrade over Rhys. Could last a few years! No doubt the Phils want pitching first, but the thought of Goldschmidt in the Phils' lineup - one MORE guy that can carry the team for a few weeks if he gets hot - if the Phils get that chance, I hope they take it.

[zambonir]

It will be interesting to see what Goldschmidt ends up being worth given his age and salary. If the Cardinals - not always a profligate team - aren't paying anything it might be less than you'd think.

He could certainly help, but would also extend the logjam of 1B/DH types, and leave Schwarber stuck in the OF this year. It would also definitively mean the end of Rhys's Phillies career (barring a late-season return). And if the Cards didn't pick up salary that is a big add for next year if they still want to replace (or re-sign) Nola.

It all depends on Harper really. Moving him to 1B and getting an OF would be simpler. But adding Goldschmidt would probably score enough runs to make up for the poor LF defense not being fixed.

I don't think they want pitching first, really. They need an arm, but not one that would be certain to start in a playoff game. Unless they decide they want pick up someone controllable now, who would also be a potential Nola replacement next year.

[andyb]

Good chance Guthrie gets through waivers unless another organization has an immediate need. His skillset is not too uncommon.

I did not realize the Cardinals were so far out though I would not be shocked if the winner of that division is under .500. The Central divisions are just bad and it is showing with the more balanced schedule.

Goldschmidt probably gets a pretty good return. About $40 million left on his contract including $26 million next year. Abel, Rojas, and Hall might be where I would start asking with the Phillies. We probably won't want to trade Painter but one figures everyone else is fair game.

[zambonir]

I think Goldschmidt's age and salary and there only being one year left means he can't get that kind of package. Versus, say, Trea Turner to the Dodgers (since he was young and made less money) or Machado (ditto though also a true rental). I'd just as soon pick up Cron cheap (.823 OPS against lefties, struggling otherwise).

Yeah, Guthrie might slip through. Or he could get traded off waivers. Everybody's 40-man is tight, but it's funny to think that they were more worried about losing Ellis... and that they don't want to lose Covey.

[phillychuck]

No thanks for Abel, Rojas, and Hall. Hall and a lower-level pitcher or prospect? Hall and Muzziotti? Yeah. I'm not trading Abel given his age and performance.