2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Philsmania]

I remember a few years back when Abreu won the HR Derby, there was concern for the rest of the season that said effort messed up his swing. His production did drop off a little bit in the second half of that season--notably, his OBP dropped off by 51 points and his K/BB also dropped off--but not glaringly. Turner hit all those HR's in the WBC. Has he tinkered with his launch angle too much?

[zambonir]

So, is this something you can fix, something that will eventually work itself out over the remaining 75% of the season, or just one of those things that can't actually be fixed but may ultimately sink them (i.e., just having a bad year/luck, like a slump/down season/freakish BABIP)?

The Phillies, through 42 games, were historically bad with runners in scoring position by OPS+, which we’ll use to account for different eras. They were 27 percent worse than the league average with runners in scoring position. That ranked as the 13th-worst figure since baseball expanded in 1969.

It is deeper than that. It’s not as if the Phillies have been bad at the plate in every possible situation. They entered Wednesday with the sixth-best OPS in the National League. Their offense has generated production. Using OPS+ to measure how a team does in a specific situation relative to every other at-bat, it reveals no team since 1969 has had a bigger gap when hitting with runners in scoring position and when not.

Phillies at the quarter mark: Historically bad with RISP. Rotation worries. And...

I do think RISP is overemphasized when "scoring position" can just as easily be home plate and 1B when you have power. But if so they need more power (and "doubles power" can also involve speed by the guy hitting the double, while not scoring a slow guy from first).

I remember a few years back when Abreu won the HR Derby, there was concern for the rest of the season that said effort messed up his swing. Turner hit all those HR's in the WBC. Has he tinkered with his launch angle too much.

Don't see how that's a comparison. The WBC were real baseball games, not a home run exhibition. I'm sure he went to the tournament following his usual routine, no different than he would have during spring training, and the Team USA coaches surely didn't have much say in their swings.

Occam's Razor here is just that he hasn't adjusted to a new city/team. Or is just struggling for unspecified reasons. But also, he is technically past his prime. The Phillies certainly didn't pay him like he was, and several of their other 30-and-over players are still producing at high levels, but you never know. Turner peaked in 2021 with a 145 OPS+ that dropped to 123 in 2022. He won't stay below average but he might not top 110-115 either (especially at this point).

He's also still playing perfectly fine shortstop. Still more valuable than Bohm or Schwarber.

[andyb]

The issue with the WBC is that more than half of the plate appearances were likely against pitchers who were not major leaguers. I don't think that the HRs there messed him up. It was more likely the 2-week gap in Spring Training when he was not facing major leaguers every day that might have messed him up.

Bad habits form when you are going against a pitcher who does not really have the stuff to get you out.

[LoneStarPhan]

The WBC pitchers are probably as good as the group of pitchers faced in that part of typical spring training games.

Evidently Turner has had slow starts in past seasons. I’m still optimistic for him heating up soon.

[zambonir]

Probably true. It was Vance Worley for Great Britain. They chased a current Texas Rangers prospect in the first inning of the Canada game. And the period of the WBC was not the period where you face major leaguers that consistently.

I don't think there has to be an explanation for it. It's baseball. The difference between a .300 hitter and a .270 hitter, especially over just six weeks, can be largely random.

[Lucky_Beagle]

What do the numbers show about getting a runner home from 3rd with 1 out? I am not as disturbed with a ground out rbi as I am with a pop up or K and no runs in an inning. How many of these recent losses could have produced wins with productive outs.

[zambonir]

That sort of failed situational hitting is frustrating, but I really don't think it's that important. Totally understandable that most players (and managers) are still going to play for extra-base hits and home runs there. And in the three-true outcomes era they also really don't get the coaching/have the skill set. Maybe that will start to change back in the new rules.

Also a hard thing to track statistically in terms of the usual offensive stats. The Phillies have eight sacrifice flies, which is 21st in MLB. But they are also 21st in RBIs and 22nd in runs overall. They could stand to have scored another 50 or 60 runs and only five or six of those would likely come from the man on third less than two out situation.

[Lucky_Beagle]

of course stats are only so good and only tell a part of the story.... knocking in a runner from 3rd with 1 out in the 8th inning of a 8-1game isn't the same need as doing it in a 1 run game in any inning. Just as getting an infield hit with RISP and 2 outs doesn't help if the next batter gets out, sure it looks better in the stats to say 1-2 with RISP but the score didn't change

[zambonir]

I just posted this on the old Phils listserv.

Phillies BA overall .261 (7th-best in MLB)
Phillies BA with RISP .232 (21st in MLB)
League average with RISP .254

I, personally, am incapable of telling the difference between those three numbers. If I watched 100 Phillies ABs with RISP and they got 27 hits they'd be one of 10 best teams in the league. 25 hits, average. 23 hits, one of the 10 worst, as they are. Mostly I think I (and all of us) would still just be upset they failed between 73 and 77 times.

But if they keep hitting, they will hit more with RISP. In the meantime, an extremely disappointing OBP (17th in the league) and surprising lack of HRs (20th in the league even though they are 11th in SLG%) are bigger - and much more frequent - problems.

[Aquapong]

Turner’s k rate is up something like 6 or 7 percent over his career average so far. His babip is actually in the .340’s which makes sense with his speed. He can run out a few more infield singles than other guys. Just watching him his swing does seem long.

[bkox]

Alvarado is first eligible to return on May 23 but his stint on the injured list will last longer than that and he will eventually need a rehab assignment.

"I'd feel safer with him going on a rehab assignment because it's going to be a while before he's back," Thomson said.

Bryce Harper also threw out to 75 feet Friday and will soon be extended to 90 feet.

Thomson said it will still be at least another month until he is able to play first base.

The Phillies have swung at 34.6% of pitches outside the strike zone, the highest chase rate in the National League.

Their only 2 starters with a chase rate better than MLB average are Schwarber & Marsh.

A major factor in the struggles with runners in scoring position.

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) May 19, 2023

Updates on Jose Alvarado's injury and Bryce Harper's timeline at first base

[andyb]

Harper at 1B timeline might be really close to the Darick Hall ready to play timeline.

FWIW I think it is only 50-50 they will go back to Hall in a platoon role. Clearly the lineup needs more power, but it also needs defense in the OF. Hall might get an extended AAA rehab to see where they think his bat is.

[BostonRoss]

Yes, but moving Harper to 1B would hurt defensively at 3B and probably 1B. And I suspect Guthrie < Sosa offensively.

[zambonir]

I'm not following you there. Sosa hasn't been great at 3B but he's still better than Bohm. And Bohm hasn't been good at 1B either.

No reason to overthink it really. Harper at 1B is an offensive upgrade at 1B that also allows for defensive upgrades in LF and RF. But it's true they don't currently have a great 4th OF. When Pache comes back he could play CF with Marsh on a corner some days. Or maybe Cave gets another look. Or Clemens is still probably a better LF than Schwarber. Ditto Harrison. But since neither of them can seem to hit it feels like an upgrade spot still.

IMO Hall was always kind of useless on a team full of DHs with Harper and Schwarber ahead of him, but obviously he would have been fine in Harper's absence. And if Harper plans to play RF in the second half of the season he'll get a chance.

[BostonRoss]

Currently we have Sosa at 3B, Bohm at 1B, and Schwarber in LF. If Harper plays 1B, them Bohm is at 3B, and presumably Guthrie in LF.

So we have better defense in LF, but worse at 3B and probably at 1B, since Harper is inexperienced there. Is that a net gain in defense? Maybe, because Schwarber is so bad, but they would be downgrading two positions to improve at one.

But we’d also be replacing Sosa’s bat with Guthrie’s. I think that’s a downgrade.

So I just don’t think moving Harper to 1B is worthwhile.

[Philsmania]

At what point do we just chalk this up as a lost season and build toward 2024?

[bkox]

At what point do we just chalk this up as a lost season and build toward 2024?

should we have done that last year when we had a worse record at this point? And what exactly do you want to do to build? Especially in May?

[bkox]

So this is the Phillies 44th game... by a quick count, they have used 5 or more pitchers in 20 of them so far... this is the eighth this season where they have used six or more

— Kevin Cooney ( @KevinCooney ) May 20, 2023

[zambonir]

Considering it's about the same as last season and they went to the World Series, I'd say September 30, and lighten up, Cassandra

[Aquapong]

I’m pretty sure my cream Cliff Lee jersey is cursed. I don’t think I’ve worn it to a win yet. I should just leave it in the corner of my closet for eternity. I left in top of the 7th and I can see I didn’t miss anything.