2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[xogfog]

Bryce Harper officially returns, Phillies shake up lineup

Not sure I like the new line up, also not sure I would start Harper in the 3 hole, I’d move him down. I find it hard to believe he isn’t going to struggle for a bit…

[andyb]

I was thinking they might put Schwarber leadoff. He just likes it there and thrives. Stott has been good but not great. He works counts but his OBP is probably not stellar once his BABIP normalizes. Now I would probably push Stott to 7th and keep Marsh 5th, but I also know Marsh as a consistent power threat is also pretty untested.

[zambonir]

Right-hander Nick Nelson (hamstring) allowed one unearned run in five walk-free innings for double-A Reading on Tuesday. The Phillies are stretching him out as a starter

Bryce Harper’s return to Phillies means it’s back to full-time outfield duty for...

[phillychuck]

Third order wins took a big hit the last two days...

[zambonir]

Gelb says that might have been Strahm's last start. I guess the good news implied in that is Walker is physically okay (with Ranger returning soon). They have some off-days to change things up/skip a turn too.

Matt Gelb: The Phillies appear to be moving forward with... - The Athletic

[andyb]

Kind of makes sense. I think that just makes Ranger's rehab one start shorter and it is not as if Strahm was good for more than 75 pitches anyway if that is all Ranger can do. I do think Ranger needs a deeper start to show he is ready. The 2 innings before a rain delay and finish in the bullpen start yesterday probably is not enough.

Definitely a weird schedule next week with the 2-game series (I guess Toronto is our home and home interleague series instead of Boston this year). Tuesday-Wednesday series with off days Monday and Thursday. Nola can pitch today and have 5-days rest for his next start even skipping Strahm.

Some Fangraphs stuff the last couple of days on Strahm and Harper:

Matt Strahm Destroyed the Market. Now He’s Smashing Expectations

Bryce Harper is Back, Impossibly Soon

[David_Criss]

Are the Phillies better with Harper at 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa and Harrison just aren't cutting it at 3B. When does Hall come back? Or does Clemens play 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa is not an everyday 3B. He is a role player and a really good SS.

[andyb]

The Phillies are probably better with Harper at 1B but the improvement might not be from giving Sosa and Harrison less time. It might be in getting Schwarber and/or Castellanos out of the outfield. The Dodger series alone had 5+ outfield balls that might have been caught by a Jake Cave (and later we could be playing Pache and/or Muzziotti out there next to Marsh).

Sosa has been good. I think he is still getting used to 3B but it is not as if he has been worse than Bohm. It is a crude measure but RF/9 is 2.43 to 1.61. Bohm catches what he gets to but does not get to much. Sosa will decrease the errors over time as he has much more experience in the middle infield. At the plate though neither offers the offense one should get at 1B. So defensive improvement (in the outfield) is the advantage we get from playing Harper at 1B.

A different question might be whether we are better with Hall at 1B once he is back. Slightly better defense at 1B than Harper, but it costs us that DH defense benefit in the outfield. Is Hall at 1B and Harper at DH better than Harper at 1B and Cave/Muzziotti/Pache/Sosa/Harrison in LF.

[Philsmania]

I think Sosa right now is the classic case of a sub who is playing too much and, as a result, is now having his weaknesses exposed.

[zambonir]

Sosa may have a few errors but he also has (significantly) better offensive numbers and a higher WAR than Bohm, so I'm not sure I see the issue. Bohm has been pretty bad for a month; as expected his bat can't but it at 1B (or DH), though I'm sure the argument is also that moving him around has hurt him.

[Callison]

Kimbrel - I know sometimes it's hard to say, "Sayonara."...

[Austinfan]

Why Thompson thought Kimbrel is still a closer is beyond me, but right now everyone is struggling.

Phillies may have dodged a bullet when Nola wanted to gamble on free agency, b/c I think we're seeing the wear and tear on a pitcher who lacked top velocity but is now struggling with both velo and command. He simply can't put together 6 or 7 consistent innings on a regular basis, his four seamer cries "hit me," he's not locating the two seamer as efficiently, nor his changeup, while he has a good curve, if hitters spit on it he's got to throw something else.

Not saying he's finished, rather, Nola always had a smaller margin for error, and he's being exposed - he'll probably pitch another five years, but he's likely to be a 3/4 most years, with maybe a 1-2 year rebound.

Phillies need to trade Schwarber to a team who wants a power hitting DH, you simply can't put both him and Castellanos in the OF at the same time. And Harper's OF days are probably over (was below average defensively before TJ).

[BostonRoss]

Are the Phillies better with Harper at 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa and Harrison just aren't cutting it at 3B. When does Hall come back? Or does Clemens play 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa is not an everyday 3B. He is a role player and a really good SS.

At the moment, Sosa is far better offensively and defensively than Bohm and Clemens. If Harper could play 1B, it would be better to play Guthrie in the OF and Schwarber at DH.

[BostonRoss]

I think Sosa right now is the classic case of a sub who is playing too much and, as a result, is now having his weaknesses exposed.

I’m more worried that Bohm’s weaknesses are worse.

[zambonir]

Phillies need to trade Schwarber to a team who wants a power hitting DH, you simply can't put both him and Castellanos in the OF at the same time. And Harper's OF days are probably over (was below average defensively before TJ).

Or they could trade Castellanos though he is signed for longer and obviously Schwarber was much better last year.

This team is still built to outslug everyone; just a bit harder to do that with no Hoskins or Harper or Hall. If you can get Harper to 1B by the all-star break you could upgrade the bench OF spot at the deadline. Or maybe Harper will get cleared to play RF. Agree he's not that good but he's still better than anything else the Phillies have, and that will likely be true for a while. He could also move to LF if Pache & Rojas and Marsh all pan out in full.

I’m more worried that Bohm’s weaknesses are worse.

Bohm is having a weird year with the reverse splits, but yeah, he has not been any better than Jake Cave or Clemens for the past month, and I still find it curious we (and the Phillies) talk about him like he's a fully formed player. I could still see a future where Turner ought to play 3B, with Stott and Sosa sharing the middle IF along with a Harrison type (but when he was good). Sosa is probably going to put up a higher WAR than Bohm at 3B even if he sinks back to being an average bat, and Bohm is never going to do enough as a 1B/DH.

[andyb]

Roster moves.

Hoffman recalled.
Marte optioned.
McArthur DFA
Nelson activated and optioned to AA (guess they are serious about the starter experiment)

Looks like they did not move anybody to the 60 so they are being cautious or maybe Hall is closer to returning than anticipated.

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/philadelphia-phillies-announce-roster-moves-thursday?src=rss

[David_Criss]

Why? Hoffman has issued 7 walks in 9 innings and has a 7.00 ERA. Marte has been decent except his one back-to-back time and everyone got shelled on this trip to Chavez Ravine. This is just a strange move, especially when Nelson could have come back as the long man. Wondering if their are some issues with Walker that aren't being discussed allowed. Then again Suarez would just replace him....McArthur, I don't think is ever going to be a Major League stud, but what has Hoffman showed that makes this a great move?

[Lucky_Beagle]

Hoffman had an opt out for 5/1. He chose it so the Phillies had to add him or lose him.

[andyb]

Hoffman has really good stuff. High 90s fastball. Former first round pick that has now recovered from TJ surgery I believe.

They only had to put him on the 40 though I do think they wanted to take a closer look at him for a week or two. Maybe only until Nelson is ready if he does not do well.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Hoffman has really good stuff. High 90s fastball. Former first round pick that has now recovered from TJ surgery I believe.

They only had to put him on the 40 though I do think they wanted to take a closer look at him for a week or two. Maybe only until Nelson is ready if he does not do well.

per mlbtraderumors article:

It was reported earlier today that Hoffman had an opt-out in his minor league deal, which he had triggered on Monday. The club then had 48 hours to add him to the big league roster or release.

I assume he is out of options?