2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

Callison 2023-05-26 15:09:45 UTC #537

Thanks for the Ohtani story, z. He's such an amazing player, I'm really disappointed the Phils aren't even in the competition. OTOH, we're talking 2017! There's still time to make an EPHPHORT - as in give it all you got!!! It could happen!!!

When I first posted about Ohtani, I thought the Phils would be outscoring everybody, and in that case, Philadedlphia would attract his attention. Conversely, the present level of play shows the team isn't ready to compete for championships and stars like Ohtani will look elsewhere.

But, ya know, they hit yesterday. The lineup worked for a change. Against the team the Phils have to beat. They could get exciting any minute. Maybe Soto should have been an accountant...

zambonir 2023-05-26 15:34:08 UTC #538

Ohtani would come to Philly for the same reason Harper and Turner did. Big bucks and the chance to win. A chance that still exists this year just as surely as it did last year (and way more than in 2019). The team we watched last year on September 15 - never mind May 15 - did not look "ready to compete for championships" either.

I just suspect that is not at all his sole motivation. Most of the Japanese players gravitate to the West Coast for both cultural and practical reasons. The fact that he rejected the Yankees in 2017 seems a lot more telling to me than the fact that the Phillies were never in on him then in the first place.

He also never would have signed with the Angels in the first place if all he needed was championship caliber team/organization! Any great player is going to believe they'll help make it happen, not that they should simply be plugged into an existing powerhouse. Bryce being the best example of that recently.

zambonir 2023-05-26 15:51:06 UTC #539

It's funny, at no point did I feel like the NLDS win meant anything other than the Phillies were extremely fortunate to win a game in Atlanta (and Game 1 at that) that enabled them to take the series. The teams were evenly matched against each other all year, but the Braves were obviously the better regular-season team and still are.

But anyway, I posted this because of this note:

It’s hard to see the Phillies going anywhere without production at the top of the lineup. Consider this: They entered Thursday with a .272 on-base percentage from the No. 1 and 2 spots in the batting order. That ranked as the fifth-worst figure since Major League Baseball expanded in 1961. It’s an unfathomable stat. It has to improve. The Phillies are making outs from the two spots in the order that bat the most at a higher rate than just about any team in the last 60 years.

Seems to me they had the exact same problem last year at the top - Schwarber only had a .285 OBP in his actual first AB of a game and was just bad for the first two months in general. But it's not like they have a better option this year either. Because Turner is slumping of course, and Stott's OBP as a lead-off hitter - in all ABs - is .297. It is probably worth just riding it out and hoping Turner does grow into the role.

The #2 spot, of course, is where they're missing Hoskins, who was there for 118 games last year.

andyb 2023-05-26 16:05:43 UTC #540

Bryce at leadoff? It is never bad to get your best hitter more plate appearances.

zambonir 2023-05-26 16:29:11 UTC #541

I was thinking just 2nd actually.

Mostly I think Thomson just has to stick with a line-up because that is what seemed to work for him - and the players - last year. You want your best hitters to get the most plate appearances but "best hitters" doesn't necessarily mean "hottest hitters." I think he could have kept Schwarber there all along - his OBP is already just about back to its 2022 level, which is also the same as Stott's OBP.

And Turner is still a guy with a .351 OBP (including that exact number for his 486 games as a lead-off hitter). Would giving that spot back to him challenge him to be more selective and be a vote of confidence, or keep the spiral going? Should he have lost it in the first place?

If you keep tinkering JT's always an option for either 1 or 2 as well. His bat still has to come around.

Bryce does seem to just prefer hitting third.

BostonRoss 2023-05-26 17:16:28 UTC #542

I want Bryce batting with people on base. So far, unfortunately, batting third in this lineup means he usually isn’t.

zambonir 2023-05-26 17:53:47 UTC #543

Lead-off would have worked great when Marsh, Stott and Sosa were all red-hot at the bottom of the order!

andyb 2023-05-26 18:52:59 UTC #544

Some more Turner discussion here. Clearly he is pressing as his swing rates are higher outside the zone. Not having trouble with high velocity really. Bad thing is that the swing rate stuff started last year so he may have learned some bad habits and gotten away with it last year. But a winter of opposition video analysis might mean other teams are exploiting this.

Best thing might be for him to consciously try to use his speed more. He still should hit the ball in the air in favorable counts, but before that he should probably dial it back a bit. I definitely want to see him use his speed more on the basepaths.

gmwannabe 2023-05-26 20:04:35 UTC #545

I guess the loss of Rhys is worse than people thought. Damn the defense. That lineup that finished last year with Turner replacing Segura would be more intimidating. Sosa is ok, but not full starting material. The Rhys injury will end up being the reason the Phils do not get back. Plus the inconsistent pitching. too many innings last year for the big 2.
gm

flyers19rw 2023-05-26 21:56:39 UTC #546

I certainly don’t miss Hoskins in the field. In another few weeks, Harper will be at 1B. That will open up the DH position for Schwarber which will allow a competent glove in LF. The batting order will be improved. When Hoskins got hot at the plate it was great but his streakiness there was problematic way too often. He’s a great guy but not needed here any longer.

zambonir 2023-05-26 22:50:03 UTC #547

Over 162 games streakiness isn't really problematic. And in the playoffs, it cuts both ways. I don't think I would have wanted him to be more consistent in the playoffs, considering his "streaky" nights singlehandedly won a couple of games. Regardless, give me a guy with 30 home runs and a .353 career OBP over a non-streaky guy with 20 and .330.

And his defense graded out a lot better than we would have thought. He was not one of the three worst defensive players on last year's team and wouldn't be this year either. No reason to think Harper will be a better 1B than Rhys was either (and Bohm already isn't).

I still think he might end up back here next year. It's hard to make both the positions and the numbers work, but can't rule it out. It really depends just how strong the open market is for him. If it's not they can either get him at a more reasonable price/length, or just give him a fat one-year deal (just a bit more than the QO, perhaps).

As you would expect some of this Hayes column is nonsense (he says this year's team would already have 5 more wins with Rhys, which would make him a Hall of Fame caliber player) but not all of it is.

BostonRoss 2023-05-26 23:33:36 UTC #548

On the radio pregame show, they said Thomson says Harper won’t be playing 1B until after the All-Star break.

zambonir 2023-05-26 23:46:56 UTC #549

Yeah I kind of thought he was still at least a month away. I also think it's possible it never actually happens. He may just go straight back to RF, and/or the Phillies will make some other moves. And in the meantime they will probably give Hall a shot. Clemens could actually play LF and 3B instead of losing his spot too.

Austinfan 2023-05-27 00:56:34 UTC #550

If Clemons is still hitting, Hall is likely to be traded, maybe for a pitcher for organizational depth.
Clemons provides more roster flexibility as a LH power bat.

zambonir 2023-05-27 01:03:07 UTC #551

Oh, btw (from that story above)

_The Phillies claimed outfielder Cal Stevenson off waivers from the San Francisco Giants and optioned him to Triple A. _

Rule 5 pitcher Noah Song (low back strain) was transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room on the 40-man roster for the 26-year-old Stevenson.

LoneStarPhan 2023-05-27 02:32:45 UTC #552

Turner had an RBI hit tonight but prior to the hit, he twice fouled off what would have been ball four. He continues swinging at pitches out of the zone.

Austinfan 2023-05-27 06:08:10 UTC #553

Though to be fair, Turner was more selective for the most part, as was the whole team.
Somebody read the riot act?

Callison 2023-05-27 15:04:26 UTC #554

Sure feels great to beat the Evil Empire Atlanta Braves. Before yesterday, the nouncers said they were 11 - 3 against the NL East!!! And I can't wait for the game today. The Phils could get good at any moment.

Looks like that Shuster has just about found his groove in the bigs. Looked strong.

OTOH Walker looked strong, too - was worried after he got shelled . Stott had another nice day. Castellanos reminded us of why he's here. The lineup might finally be right somehow.

GO PHILS!!!

Callison 2023-05-27 15:14:30 UTC #555

Forgot to mention Kimbrel... the new, improved Kimbrel! You know you can close when you close the Braves.

flyers19rw 2023-05-27 18:07:26 UTC #556

Harrison needs to be DFAed. No bat or reliable glove anymore. He had a nice career. Say bye.