2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

A healthy Painter in April was still a longshot but a healthy Painter in Mid-May was not. Even Strahm wasn't seriously in the mix until Ranger got hurt. If Walker does end up on IL they are very thin. They can win some games scoring six runs but not with too many starts like last night

[andyb]

I guess it is possible they might keep Strahm in the rotation on something like a 70-80 pitch count and bring Nelson back as his caddy. That just limits what you can do with the bullpen though. It is great that they are getting innings from Wheeler and Nola now at least. I wonder if they should space them out in the rotation to spread that depth out some (i.e. don't have the heavy bullpen days back to back like they now do with Falter and Strahm).

[David_Criss]

Strahm right now is the third starter on this team. There is something off with Walker and Falter is hot or cold. When Suarez returns he can be a dominant bullpen piece or a decent starter. If he goes to the rotation then Falter or Walker should be the odd man out whether its an IL stint (Walker) or a move to the bullpen or to AAA (Falter).

With Harper, guessing it is Cave who gets sent down unless they are serious about Harper playing some 1B, then its Clemens.

[andyb]

I think they are serious about Harper playing 1B. Just not now.

If he does then Cave is a better fit. Hall is a wild card in this too though we could have this weird situation where Bryce is approved by the doctors to play 1B a couple of months before he is approved to play the OF.

[zambonir]

Suarez is starting. They are even building him up to 90 pitches (though I bet they just skip his last rehab start if Walker is out).

[zambonir]

It's actually a pretty logical progression. Cave hasn't hit especially well and now there's no playing time for him in LF (not probably not RF either unless they want to give Nick an off-day against RHP). There's also none for him in CF, nor have they ever tried him there. And if you keep Clemens you can just replace him with Hall straight-up if you want.

I didn't get the impression that Harper was planning to play RF this year at all. When he starts playing 1B and/or Hall comes back they can shufffle things again.

[schillingfan]

That is good news on Pache. Thought it would end up more serious. And we'll be able to get him a good week or two of rehab before deciding whether to recall him after the rehab.

Meniscus is a muscle tear. Muscles heal faster than ligaments. They will sometimes heal themselves with rest. It only seems that tears always lead to surgery.

[zambonir]

Meniscus is cartilage, no? Easier to treat (or heal on their own) than a ligament or tendon but not exactly like a muscle either.

If he wasn't a pro athlete he might not have needed surgery.

[schillingfan]

Ahh. I was going by what I remembered when I went to Penn for my knees. I knew Meniscus was not ligament, so assumed it was muscle.

[bkox]

The Phillies reinstated Bryce Harper from the 10-day injured list prior to tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. To make room for Harper on the 26-man roster, outfielder Jake Cave was optioned to triple-A Lehigh Valley following last night’s game.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) May 2, 2023

[zambonir]

I confused it with the MCL myself.

At least Jake Cave has that sweet inflated AAA salary, whatever it might be.

[xogfog]

Bryce Harper officially returns, Phillies shake up lineup

Not sure I like the new line up, also not sure I would start Harper in the 3 hole, I’d move him down. I find it hard to believe he isn’t going to struggle for a bit…

[andyb]

I was thinking they might put Schwarber leadoff. He just likes it there and thrives. Stott has been good but not great. He works counts but his OBP is probably not stellar once his BABIP normalizes. Now I would probably push Stott to 7th and keep Marsh 5th, but I also know Marsh as a consistent power threat is also pretty untested.

[zambonir]

Right-hander Nick Nelson (hamstring) allowed one unearned run in five walk-free innings for double-A Reading on Tuesday. The Phillies are stretching him out as a starter

Bryce Harper’s return to Phillies means it’s back to full-time outfield duty for...

[phillychuck]

Third order wins took a big hit the last two days...

[zambonir]

Gelb says that might have been Strahm's last start. I guess the good news implied in that is Walker is physically okay (with Ranger returning soon). They have some off-days to change things up/skip a turn too.

Matt Gelb: The Phillies appear to be moving forward with... - The Athletic

[andyb]

Kind of makes sense. I think that just makes Ranger's rehab one start shorter and it is not as if Strahm was good for more than 75 pitches anyway if that is all Ranger can do. I do think Ranger needs a deeper start to show he is ready. The 2 innings before a rain delay and finish in the bullpen start yesterday probably is not enough.

Definitely a weird schedule next week with the 2-game series (I guess Toronto is our home and home interleague series instead of Boston this year). Tuesday-Wednesday series with off days Monday and Thursday. Nola can pitch today and have 5-days rest for his next start even skipping Strahm.

Some Fangraphs stuff the last couple of days on Strahm and Harper:

Matt Strahm Destroyed the Market. Now He’s Smashing Expectations

Bryce Harper is Back, Impossibly Soon

[David_Criss]

Are the Phillies better with Harper at 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa and Harrison just aren't cutting it at 3B. When does Hall come back? Or does Clemens play 1B and Bohm back to 3B? Sosa is not an everyday 3B. He is a role player and a really good SS.

[andyb]

The Phillies are probably better with Harper at 1B but the improvement might not be from giving Sosa and Harrison less time. It might be in getting Schwarber and/or Castellanos out of the outfield. The Dodger series alone had 5+ outfield balls that might have been caught by a Jake Cave (and later we could be playing Pache and/or Muzziotti out there next to Marsh).

Sosa has been good. I think he is still getting used to 3B but it is not as if he has been worse than Bohm. It is a crude measure but RF/9 is 2.43 to 1.61. Bohm catches what he gets to but does not get to much. Sosa will decrease the errors over time as he has much more experience in the middle infield. At the plate though neither offers the offense one should get at 1B. So defensive improvement (in the outfield) is the advantage we get from playing Harper at 1B.

A different question might be whether we are better with Hall at 1B once he is back. Slightly better defense at 1B than Harper, but it costs us that DH defense benefit in the outfield. Is Hall at 1B and Harper at DH better than Harper at 1B and Cave/Muzziotti/Pache/Sosa/Harrison in LF.

[Philsmania]

I think Sosa right now is the classic case of a sub who is playing too much and, as a result, is now having his weaknesses exposed.