2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[Aquapong]

Nola is allowing easily the most hr’s of his career this season. He’s already matched the hr’s allowed for the whole year of 2021. 10 off his curve. Team’s aren’t hitting for a good average overall, but obviously the homers hurt. Is he just hanging too many curveballs? The homers have been a much bigger problem in away games at a 1.89 hr/9 clip. He’s 1.06 hr/9 at home. I don’t think Fangraphs stats include tonight yet. The two homers he allowed tonight were off a cutter and changeup which are his two least used pitches. The changeup was a hanger and the cutter didn’t cut.

[Austinfan]

The problem with Nola has been inconsistent command of all his pitches. Some innings he looks like a world beater, some he just leaves balls over the center of the plate. His problem is he doesn't have any true plus plus pitches, his two seamer is probably his best pitch, but only when he can locate it, his four seamer is good, but not special, his changeup is inconsistent, his curve is good when he can throw it for strikes, and he's working on a cutter.

The issue is whether this is just an off season or a harbinger of things to come. Without good command, Nola is a #3/#4 going forward - he has relied on painting the corners to be effective. One worrisome thing about last night's game were the long ABs with hitters fouling off a lot of pitches, tends to mean they're seeing his pitches. He's not deceptive, and his FBs don't seem to have the spin rate to make hard contact difficult - it's more hit or miss, if he fools the batter they whiff, if they see it coming they can hit it.

[allentown]

Unless Nola pitches more efficiently, he seems to be at the point in his career that he no longer is, and shouldn't attempt to be, a 200* innings pitcher. He totally ran out of gas during the playoffs last season and responded by trying to baffle hitters with a lot of set-up pitches to compensate. The 6-man rotation should help him.

[Austinfan]

When pitchers tire, command generally goes before velocity. That may be the issue with Nola, he may be more effective as a 30 start, 180 IP #3, but what do you pay that guy and for how many years?

[Aquapong]

I’ve long been of the opinion we shouldn’t resign Nola. Offer a QO and if he accepts to build value for himself so be it. If not we get some compensation. I think we’ve got the best of him at this point. He’s 3rd or 4th in innings pitched since 2016.

I don’t feel bad that he signed a team friendly deal. That’s the point…the team gets a good rate and the player gets security of life changing money early on. Some flame out like Kingery.

[Callison]

Nola is surely THE pitching problem now with the Phils, but just beneath that, there's the Marte problem. Marte LOOKS like he can pitch, but is inconsistent as Nola. We're kinda used to relievers that shut down the other team, so his performance yesterday stands out. This is another player the Phils just love - as in blind love - so he's not going anywhere, but in a better world, they would send him down and bring up the next best prospect.

[allentown]

Nola needs to build stamina. He was used to getting a breather by working slowly. He hasn't dealt at all well with the timer. It is faster than he is used to (able?) to pitch. The umpires have gotten on to him about that. He also was in the habit of giving himself a break in tough situations with multiple throws to first, but the new rules have disallowed that. Not sure he realized how much the rule changes would impact him.

[andyb]

Marte is likely going down when Alvarado comes back. He might be in the mix for the extra September spot, but he'll have to be better than Bellatti and Brogdon to earn it (which I think he will).

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think you just nailed it. All season, and even the past few, Nola had lost some of the glitter with me. I always felt he had some Greg Maddux in him and would develop into that instead of glimpses. Now, I see him as our 5th pitcher and I no longer have high expectations when he pitches. What he did in the past has been negated by his recent history. I don’t know how the Phillies can invest heavily in that. We are already having to carry Schwarber and Castellanos. Hopefully
Nola and the Phil’s can acknowledge this reality of his decline.

[zambonir]

We are still paying our ostensible #4 starter $18 million, and he is still a bit behind Nola in WHIP and FIP (to say nothing of IPs). And Ranger is still not looking like a true #3 in terms of consistency and durability.

I just don't think it matters if he's a #2 or #4, if you can afford it you pay based on the market. And in the Phillies' case they don't necessarily have a more affordable alternative, internally or externally.

Bringing back Lorenzen is a nice idea but he's a year older and less proven - he also might be up for a Walker-like deal himself. And would still be useful even if Nola does come back.

Urias will be expensive and have a QO (and probably won't leave). Giolito and Snell might not be better.

If the Phillies really don't think Nola can deliver a couple of seriously good years over the next 4-5 season by all means walk away. But they probably do. And if not someone will.

[bkox]

So would you have signed any of these pitchers to long term contracts?

Those are Verlander in 2014, Schilling in 1994, Halladay in 2004 and Hamels in 2009

Sometimes good pitchers have bad years. Last year Nola finished 4th in the Cy Young award voting.

[EDmuch]

I see Snell as a very interesting potential target.

[Florida_Sunshine]

That doesn’t support your argument very well. Nola has absolutely bombed 2 out of the last 3 years. He supposedly turned down 4/100M? I like the guy and based on inside knowledge if favorable, a hope and a prayer, I would not be comfortable with the numbers being thrown around and would offer less. I think it would be a mistake to go long term at a large number.

[zambonir]

I'm passing without much of a second thought if he gets a QO, which he probably will. That has to stop.

[bkox]

Nola has absolutely bombed 2 out of the last 3 years.

and hes been top 10 in CYA voting 2 of the last 4.

And that bombed in 2021... 5th in NL in Ks, 5th in BB/9, 3rd in K/9. 10th in FIP. 3rd in K/BB

Nola has had ONE problem in both years. HRs. Aaron Nola's career WHIP is better than Carlton, Schilling and Hamels had in their time with the Phillies. Meaning he allows less baserunners than all of them. Even this year he is 7th in the NL in WHIP

Figure out the HR problem and you have an elite pitcher

[Jazzhead]

ola needs to build stamina. He was used to getting a breather by working slowly. He hasn't dealt at all well with the timer. It is faster than he is used to (able?) to pitch.

I think this has merit. Which makes it harder to evaluate whether to re-sign him. Is his decline because of age or other physical issues, or because the rules changed? If the latter, he can work to fix it, perhaps in an offseason conditioning program. He should just trust his catcher, get in a rhythm and deal. Going to a six man should help him, and give him an extra day to work on stuff.

I still say he's our second best starter,

[zambonir]

I would also really rather not see him pitch in Atlanta, Miami or Texas. (If you believe Scherzer, the Mets won't be looking to sign him at least.)

[Florida_Sunshine]

Why is that?

History would tend to say they would have no need for a pitcher with his price tag. , except for Texas but aren’t they in better shape?

[zambonir]

Well, because I think he's a very good to great - if not elite - pitcher who would make any team better. Plus it would add insult to injury if someone other than Cotham got him back on track (or better).

And I just think that in a world where the Mets and Rangers have spent the way they have, and on much older (if also more accomplished) arms, keeping an Aaron Nola for a fair amount of money is just the price of doing business - especially when there isn't anyone as good or better for the same price.

Maybe true Atlanta or Miami wouldn't throw around that kind of money either. Of course in Atlanta's case they would just go trade for someone better and cheaper, which the Phillies also still can't do.

[Austinfan]

Lorenzen should garner less than Walker, Nola more.
But Nola at $100M for 4 years is far more palatable than 6yr/$180M.