2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[BostonRoss]

Most of Westin Wilson’ offensive value came when the opposition wasn’t getting any hits.

[zambonir]

Made myself curious mentioning the weighted advanced stats so had to look, Castellanos is tied for fifth in the league with 103 RBIs. He is tied with Betts, and ahead of Muncy (102), Juan Soto (101) and Schwarber (100).

But if you go to WOBA or WRC+ (which is mostly based on the former but league/park-adjusted) you'll find Betts, Soto and Harper in the Top 10 for both but Nick is 71/73 while Schwarber is 36/50 (and Muncy doesn't fare as well either).

Hardly news that all those players are better than Castellanos of course. Also not news that Schwarber is a better offensive player than Castellanos these days. And you definitely want your team to lead the league in scoring and driving in runs. Doesn't matter how you do it. But you use advanced stats to figure that out, and try to understand what's sustainable/repeatable.

And if you want to keep it simple, at the end of the day getting on base and hitting with power are the two things that are most sustainable/repeatable. RBIs and runs scored and BA - and indeed, RISP - are subject to a lot more variance and luck.

[Austinfan]

There's a synergistic impact that even advanced stats don't count with hitters who take a lot of pitches:

1) starters try to get by with 2-3 pitches first time or two through the lineup and save a "surprise" pitch for later - but 9-10 pitch PAs can foil that strategy
2) running a deep count allows the players in the clubhouse to get a good look at a pitcher's stuff in early innings
3) running up pitch counts can get a tough starter out of the game an inning or two early

[zambonir]

Well I'm not sure you actually need an advanced stat for that. Hitters who take or foul off a lot of pitches are generally good. Hitters who have good OBP skills probably do that. Hitters with OBP skills and power, even more so. Even if the guys who strike out are likely to do it in deeper counts, after being pitched to carefully. And hitters who can fall into an 0-2 hole but then get back 2-2 or even 3-2 are also good.

I would think quite a bit of the Statcast data (and even pitches-per-PA) can tell you plenty about this. The "synergy" isn't complicated.

[Austinfan]

But I don't think it shows up in the common measures of performance, OPS, WAR, etc.

In the same way, defensive stats probably underestimate the value of top defense - it's not just preventing hits and runs, it's one less batter a pitcher has to face, keeping his pitch count down and protecting the bullpen.

[zambonir]

But I don't see how it really has to be quantified. You wouldn't need to tweak DRS or or defensive WAR to account for this. A good defensive player helps make more outs, which by definition means his pitcher faces fewer batters. It's not a separate stat. Same with a high OPS player helping to wear down pitchers given it weighs OBP.

[andyb]

Pretty sure the defensive stats that measure the number of runs saved are accounting for not facing extra hitters.

Nobody disagrees that there is value in starters that can go deep in games and have the variety of stuff to face a lineup a 3rd time. That is why Nola will slot in as the number 2 starter because he offers the best chance at that.

But let's not overthink this. The counting stats have value too. A player needs to be good enough to get more ABs or more starts. Marsh for instance really isn't good enough offensively to start against most left-handed pitching. So his OPS (and probably oWAR) are artificially high. Schwarber is a 3 WAR player at DH. That is how I value him. And I also appreciate the long counts that help everyone else.

The problem exists when people overrate ANY single stat. Old school baseball people get this and is probably one reason they get annoyed with all the analytics types who measure isolated things but not all the connecting tissue.

[bkox]

One reason why it’s important to #Phillies to squeeze in a game today: They plan to flip Zack Wheeler’s and Taijuan Walker’s spots in final turn through the rotation. After today, Wheeler would pitch Thursday, lining him up for Game 1 of wild-card series on normal rest on 10/3.

— Scott Lauber ( @ScottLauber ) September 23, 2023

[zambonir]

Or they could just skip Wheeler's last start entirely, except he's made it clear he prefers the routine/regular rest.

[Jazzhead]

There's some truth in what Nick Castellanos said recently - he believes driving in runs and scoring runs are the two most important stats that lead to winning baseball games.

I agree. But I think a lot of folks evaluate players on what they bring to their fantasy teams. That's great, but it's not the game of baseball.

[Jazzhead]

Mission accomplished. I'm gratified that they got today's game in, and the work performed by the pitchers. Let's line up this shot and make it.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I agree. But I think a lot of folks evaluate players on what they bring to their fantasy teams. That's great, but it's not the game of baseball.

Good point. But also it’s important to remember that the ultimate goal is to win baseball games, and not build up great looking stats, whether it’s the traditional, easy-to-understand ones, or the newer, more obscure ones.

[zambonir]

I guess I really don't know much about fantasy baseball if runs and RBIs don't count for a lot!

Of course Nick's quote applies even more to the people who think it matters that Kyle Schwarber only hits .200, even as more "advanced" stats like Schwarber (I put those in quotes because I first learned about OBP and OPS on the Phillies listserv in '93, and it was only 10 years later that Moneyball came out).

[zambonir]

Sunday game moves to 6:05pm

[Sabin]

(I put those in quotes because I first learned about OBP and OPS on the Phillies listserv in '93, and it was only 10 years later that Moneyball came out).

The movie? That was 2011.

[tom81]

I’m sure he is referring to the book. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball

[zambonir]

Have you never read the book? It's okay, neither did the Phillies

[Jazzhead]

guess I really don't know much about fantasy baseball if runs and RBIs don't count for a lot!

There are different fantasy games. The league I'm in is an APBA league, the cards-based game where a season of baseball is played with dice and cards which replicate players' performance from the previous year. It's a keeper league, so part of the fun is watching players accumulate stats for next year. I'm pleased as punch, for example, that TJ Friedl may be my starting CF next year.

But card grades don't care about team-based measures like runs and RBIs; they're based instead on individual measures including, critically, fielding grades. So, frustratingly, Trea Turner's season is tarnished for APBA purposes with every error he makes. In the more common Rotisserrie (spelling?) stats-accumulation game, I don't believe that player fielding counts for anything other than how it affects playing time and position.

[Sabin]

Lol, I actually haven't. Figured you had to be talking about that, but got more caught up in a momentary 'you're getting even older than you thought' over the notion the movie might've been nearly ten years older than I thought.

[bkeich]

guess I really don't know much about fantasy baseball if runs and RBIs don't count for a lot!

There are different fantasy games. The league I'm in is an APBA league, the cards-based game where a season of baseball is played with dice and cards which replicate players' performance from the previous year. It's a keeper league, so part of the fun is watching players accumulate stats for next year. I'm pleased as punch, for example, that TJ Friedl may be my starting CF next year.

But card grades don't care about team-based measures like runs and RBIs; they're based instead on individual measures including, critically, fielding grades. So, frustratingly, Trea Turner's season is tarnished for APBA purposes with every error he makes. In the more common Rotisserrie (spelling?) stats-accumulation game, I don't believe that player fielding counts for anything other than how it affects playing time and position.

I just found my 1980s APBA and bought a few updates. Now I just need the time to play​