2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[zambonir]

As the schedule lightens next week, they intend to go back to five starters. But manager Rob Thomson wouldn’t say for certain that lefty Cristopher Sánchez will move to the bullpen. It’s possible the fifth-starter spot will be shared by Lorenzen and Sánchez, both of whom have surpassed their top single-season innings total.

Phillies’ Michael Lorenzen feels ‘10 percent more sore’ a day after his...

[zambonir]

Don't look now but Phillies have cruised into the top wild card spot and are 4 games up for the last one. And only five road games the rest of this month, with 12 at home. Including the Giants.

[Austinfan]

I'll give Dombrowski credit, he didn't panic, he went through 5th starters until Sanchez delivered, then traded Lee for Lorenzen. Lee is a nice prospect, but expendable with Simmons, Bergolla, Rincon and Caba in the low minors. He refused to listen to offers for his top prospects, and patience has paid off.

[Callison]

As the schedule lightens next week, they intend to go back to five starters.

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Biggest news yesterday was that Nola looks strong in the 6-man. Nola came up big. Suffered A FEW important, bad calls at the plate, suffered some comical defense, but just hung in there and in there and in there. The Phils aren't going anywhere without him, so it was really great to see him regain his chops. If the 6-man works for Nola, don't fix it.

IMHO, Wheels needs it too. And Big Rob likes to send his starters out for one more inning, even if they've thrown a lot of pitches and the shut down pen is rested.

But it doesn't sound like we're voting on this...

[allentown]

I'm a big proponent of keeping the 6-man rotation. We want our top pitchers to be strong going into the post-season. At the moment, all 6 of our starters are at least adequate. I know the original thought was to transition Lorenzen to a multi-inning reliever for the playoffs, but he's better than that. We have to use the whole staff, since it would be a major stumble not to reach the playoffs. I realize that pitchers want more starts to better their record and IP for a bigger next contract, but this is a team sport and with the extended playoffs its very much about having a still strong pitching staff firing on all cylinders going into the playoffs. That's one reason i didn't like seeing Lorenzen throw so many pitches in getting his no-no. Great personal achievement, but we want him to be a solid, sufficiently rested top 3-4 guy going into playoffs. Using 4 starters, at least in the early playoff rounds, is an advantage if we manage to reach WS again. Wheeler/Nola/Walker/Lorenzen are all good enough to be legit playoff starters. Wheeler and Nola were both gassed when we entered WS last year. The Phillies need to learn from that.

[zambonir]

As it was reported - abandon the six-man but let Sanchez and Lorenzen split the #5 spot - it seems like semantics. Would that be a tandem? Would they take turns? Either thing would stress the bullpen, I'd think, while not resting the other starters.

That said, in 2019 didn't they make a big deal of trying to get Nola an extra off-day for all of September and he was actually a lot worse on an extra day's rest?

Right now missing the playoffs would take a disaster. Keeping the pedal down to stay in the top wild card spot important of course. But not sure the approach to the rotation will be a factor either way.

We'll see how everyone looks as the season ends. Lorenzen looks great but would he actually start a playoff game ahead of Walker or Suarez? Nola? Seems like just a few months ago Suarez looked like the Phillies' second-best starter and you didn't even mention him above.

Having either Suarez or Lorenzen or both as relievers in the playoffs may also be semantics. The so-called fourth starter wouldn't get more than one start before the NLCS. And of course the best way to use fewer starters is to win your series as quickly as possible.

I'm just as curious to see how Sanchez ends up. Does he become a trusted playoff reliever or off the roster?

[bkeich]

To me you stick with the 6 man as long as you can. As Allentown points out, really all 6 have pitched well and it isn't even clear who you would drop. Besides, it is 6 players, odds are very good (sadly) that we will have an injury before long. By sticking with them we don't have to stretch out a pitcher that was sent to the bullpen or to AAA.

It is a long season, it will save a couple starts for our top 3 guys (whoever they are) for what seems like an almost assured shot at the playoffs.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think they are trying to figure out how to effectively control their innings between now and EOY since both are over their historical highs in innings pitched.

And since we will need Lorenzen to replace Nola next year, that would be a good thing. Just kidding Z, well not totally!

[andyb]

No Harper tonight. Still must be working through the back issues (though there is a LHP tonight and we still can't play all our RH bench bats (Wilson and Sosa get the nod tonight).

[bkox]

According to Baseball Reference, no team has done more to boost their postseason odds over the last 30 days than the Phillies (47.2% increase to 92.4% overall).

Next best : Cubs (37.1% increase)

— Bob Wankel ( @Bob_Wankel ) August 11, 2023

[bkox]

Alvarado said his live BP today went well. He threw about 20 pitches. Says he’ll throw a light bullpen on Sunday, take a day off Monday, pitch Tuesday on a rehab assignment (likely in LV). Says it’s possible he could return by the series in Washington next weekend

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) August 11, 2023

[bkox]

The #Phillies have been on a home run tear, particularly with men on base.

They’ve now hit multi-run HRs in 10 straight games.

Before this streak they had played for almost 141 years, and the longest such streak they ever had was 8 games in 1922.

🧵1/4 @thegoodphight

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) August 11, 2023

They’ve also hit a 2-run HR, specifically, in each of those 10 games.

Their previous longest streak of games with 2-run shots was 7, also in 1922.

Those have replaced solo HRs.

7/28 to 8/6 they went 10 games without a solo shot, their longest such drought since June 2015.

2/4

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) August 11, 2023

In the Nationals series they hit 11 HRs, tied for 5th most in any series in franchise history.

That included 8 multi-run HRs, tying the franchise record for a series, which they’ve done 3 times:

1922: 5 games vs. Dodgers
2002: 3 games vs. Nats
2021: 4 games at the Cubs

3/4

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) August 11, 2023

Of their 8 multi-run HRs in the series, 7 were 2-run shots.

That set a new franchise record for 2-run HRs in one series.

They had twice previously hit 6 in one series:

-1922 home vs. Dodgers
-1993 in Colorado

4/4

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) August 11, 2023

[zambonir]

And I thought I was generally an optimist!

Since the All-Star Break
The Braves are 12-12
The Phils are 16-11

The Phils are now within 9.5 games
Still have to play the Braves 7 times

Could we………. COULD WE??! pic.twitter.com/PLwE6DFz8X

— UK Phillies ( @UKPhillies ) August 11, 2023

[zambonir]

I'm guessing another reason the team doesn't see a need to stick with a six-man rotation is that the awakening offense and favorable schedule - as we're seeing this past week-plus - is going to put less pressure on the pitching too. Obviously plenty to worry about, including playing down to weak opponents and this Harper injury, but if they can keep playing like this, the starters will not be overtaxed in September (and the last two weeks specifically).

[bkox]

The Phillies have won 39 of their last 59 games, which is the second best record in baseball going back to the start of June, and I feel like not enough people have noticed that.

— Jared Carrabis ( @Jared_Carrabis ) August 11, 2023

[zambonir]

Like I just said in the game thread, as big a believer as I am, I'd just as soon not turn into a favorite/trendy pick.

I mean, arguably they were just as good last year in a similar time frame, but since last year happened they will be a lot more hyped this time.

[RolenRules]

But do you think their playoff opposition (hopefully not jinxing us here) will actually take us more seriously if we are a "trendy pick"? Or that they did not take us seriously last year?

[bkox]

Thomson says it's a foot contusion for Schwarber. He's sore. They're going to re-evaluate in the morning.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) August 12, 2023

Phillies could be without Harper and Schwarber tomorrow (havent heard any updates on Harper) against a tough right handed pitcher

[LoneStarPhan]

I just noticed that the run differential for the Phillies is now +43. Seems like not too long ago, it was negative.

The Phillies have been playing winning baseball since June, but I think those of us that follow most games sometimes take the loses too hard. There is always the game where we point to this or that happening that cost the team a win. We want them to win every game and when they don't, we sometimes overestimate the negative. We won 3 of 4 in Miami but lost one by a score of 9-8. Should have won that game as well. Lost the first game against KC, clearly a game they should have won. Of course, they went on to take 2 of the 3 games with the Royals. Then the four games with the Nationals. Again, winning 3 or 4, but losing the second game of the doubleheader. Everyone knows we should have won that second game. I think that was the one where we had some bad fielding that probably cost the game. Winning those series is great. We cannot realistically expect more, but somehow we do.

So keep winning series and the Phillies will make the post season. No team in the post season should be taken lightly. We will need good pitching and good hitting and the best fielding we can get. There are no guaranties in the playoffs, but if your in, you have a shot. Enjoy the ride.

That said, I am as guilty as anyone for agonizing over a loss. I especially hate an off day after a loss.

Hope Harper and Schwarber are back soon.

[Austinfan]

Phillies were a bad team in April and May, the pitching was spotty, the hitting was MIA.
Things turned around when Ranger returned, then the addition of Sanchez, Lorenzen is the "cherry on top."
Once you can roll out a solid starter every game who can go 6+, you should win the majority of games.
And it bought time for the pen, SD working his way into game shape, Alvarado rehabbing, Brogdon going south could have crippled the pen, but better SP is reducing the load on the top relievers while they wait for reinforcements.

Now if Harper, Turner, Castellanos, JT and Schwarber hit at their career norms the rest of the way, with the emergence of Bohm and Stott, and Rojas/Pache in CF, Phillies have a top lineup.

But in the playoffs, it comes down to good pitching, if a pitcher has an off day, you can quickly fall into a hole.
So giving Wheeler, Nola and Ranger a lighter workload down the stretch increases the odds of an "October surprise."