2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[andyb]

Stark interview with Dombrowski on his podcast has some interesting things. It really sounds like the Phillies decided the offensive improvement of a right-handed bat was not much if there was some defensive dropoff compared to Marsh.

And they really wanted a pitcher that could both start and relieve. They probably see the playoffs as much shorter leashes on all starters except maybe Wheeler. Having Suarez and Lorenzen capable of giving them 3 innings out of the bullpen is a potential weapon in a wild card (or any short) series.

Dombrowski discusses how the Phillies landed Lorenzen and why they passed on a...

[Callison]

@Callison This is why we dont trust Jake Cave's AAA numbers

Good knowledge, bk.

Big Rob has been way patient with Cave, as he is with nearly everybody, but Cave hasn't hit his weight. Doesn't even look promising. Where's the guy that got 2 hits and made an All Star catch against the Orioles?

[bkox]

Where's the guy that got 2 hits and made an All Star catch against the Orioles?

everyone is capable of a good game. Remember Drew Ellis's 2 HR game? He went 3 for 3 in that game and 2 for 20 in every other game

[gmwannabe]

What do the Phillies get if they lose Nola through free agency? I know they must give an offer.
gm

[Patchmk88]

I think because we are over the luxery tax threshold, we’d receive a pick after the completion of the 4th round.

[gmwannabe]

wow! has that ever changed.

[andyb]

Nola won't accept the 1-year offer but at least he is good enough that we are not just offering it for the draft pick. I suspect the Phillies will sign him because the alternatives are less good and will have much less durability theoretically.

[EDmuch]

Why is Blake Snell "less good" than Nola?

[andyb]

Career WAR 30.9 vs 18.5. Much healthier and consistent. Snell has been better this one year but that is it. This will only be his second season with 130 innings or more.

Zach Wheeler had some of the same questions but even he had 3 180+ inning seasons (and 2 consecutive) when he came to the Phillies.

[bkox]

Why is Blake Snell "less good" than Nola?

He would cost us yet another high round draft pick because hes almost guaranteed to be offered a QO

[Philsmania]

It feels like the next time we get a draft pick for a QO, it will be the first in a long time. Our FA's usually seem to take the offer. Might Nola hope for a pillow year since this seasons has gone sour?

[andyb]

I feel Nola will get incentives on a long term deal rather than settle for a 1-year deal. Hoskins is actually the guy that might take a 1-year offer though he is more of a $20 million player anyway rather than potentially a $30 million dollar one.

Were Watson and Gueller (2012) our last comp picks? That did not go well.

[zambonir]

The comp pick for Nola is also barely of consequence. The comp to sign someone is of great consequence.

Equally reasonably to dismiss Nola's 2023 as a blip than to assume Snell's 2023 represents his future. They're the same age too, though obviously the durability can also be spun both ways (i.e. Nola has more wear on him).

[bkox]

OF Cristian Pache (right elbow irritation) is expected to begin a rehab assignment tonight with single-A Clearwater

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) August 8, 2023

[xogfog]

I heard some projections for upcoming free agent contracts and Nola was projected 5 years 110 mil. I think that sounds a little on the light side from what I think he'll get. I would consider bringing him back at that price, but more expensive, I let him walk and resign Lorenzen.

[bkox]

From @jaysonst 's piece today on the Phillies:

"Johan Rojas, described by one scout last week as ‘one of the five best defensive center fielders in baseball.’" https://t.co/VL0AbTzcqn https://t.co/6SawjIlO4z

— Pete Sweigard ( @petesweigard ) August 8, 2023

[flyers19rw]

I was afraid that Rojas would have a moment at the plate and Topper would sit him. I don’t care if he does. You can’t take that glove off of the field. Whatever he hits is a bonus.

[andyb]

Nats have a couple of LHPs the next 2 games so we can see if having Sosa, Castro, and Wilson on the roster in addition to Rojas makes sense. The reality is probably that we should have added a left-handed bat from somewhere else if we thought Muzziotti was slumping. Cave at least was better yesterday, but playing Castro against a right-handed pitcher just to get him at bats was not productive.

[Austinfan]

Just have to bridge until Marsh returns.

Rojas is looking more and more like a player who's going to be a fixture in CF, he's got the most range of a Phillie CF since Gary Maddox. His defense is so good it allows the team to be patient with him as a hitter, and so far Rojas looks like he belongs in the Show, worked a nice walk, has a little pop, he hasn't looked overmatched.

Rojas in CF and Marsh in LF makes an improved Castellanos tolerable in RF.

Even Dombrowski concedes that OF defense can compensate for lesser offense, and so far, Marsh/Pache/Rojas really haven't cost much offensively, the problem has been Harrison/Caves/Hall. Schwarber is going to be the DH going forward, and I think Harper is going to be the 1B.

As I've pointed out, when pitching is at a premium, defense is more valuable b/c those extra outs reduce the pitch load on your better pitchers, both reducing injuries from overuse and having to employ inferior pitchers in key situations.

[andyb]

The point is that Dombrowski's moves really gave up a bunch of mediocre right-handed bats that are not helpful against right-handed pitchers. And we can't even play them all against left-handers as we really should not be sitting Stott and Schwarber and Harper against anyone.

Rojas is helpful though I still think he'll hit a wall and be swapped with Pache in a week for the rest of the month until he gets called back in September. The team should really have added a better AAA left-handed bat or ML bench piece than Castro who in general is not better than Sosa. While there might be untapped value in Castro, it does seem they could have done a better move than that at the deadline.