2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

LoneStarPhan 2022-09-14 23:22:35 UTC #321

Looks like there will be a large number of players to sort out to get the winter 40 man roster set. The 60 day IL works for now, but all have to be accommodated after the season ends.

zambonir 2022-09-15 00:32:09 UTC #322

There will be some choices, but when you factor in the free agents and fungibles they probably aren't going to have more than 32 or 33 guys before the process (of protecting the new people) starts. Emanuel is one of the goners, I'm sure. Guys like Appel and Damon Jones will be on the fence. Camargo and Munoz will be gone. Eflin, Robertson, Knebel, Gibson, Hand, Syndegaard, Segura all gone (maybe not for good, but at least initially). Eventually they'll probably have to cut a catcher.

And Harper might end up on the 60-day the minute spring training starts, alas.

julio 2022-09-15 02:59:35 UTC #323

Not as many as you might think.

There are currently seven players on the 60-day IL (and 40 on the roster). So they're seven over the winter roster limit. But five of those 47 players will be free agents (Gibson, Syndergaard, Hand, Robertson, Knebel), and will come off the roster after the World Series.

After that, Zach Eflin has a mutual option, which he may decline. Nola and Segura have club options - Nola's will presumably be picked up, but Segura's may not.

Now, the club will want to make some space for serious minor league prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. There are a lot of guys in the minors who will be Rule 5-eligible...but frankly, when I look at the list, not a lot jumps out at me as guys we can't afford to expose to the draft.

In the minors, the domestic rosters currently show a total of 197 players who aren't on the 40-man. They have to get that down to 190 in the off-season - but they'll lose many of the AAA players as "six year" minor league free agents after the World Series ends, so that really shouldn't be a problem either.

Bottom line - they may have to part ways with a couple of relievers on the 40-man (Damon Jones?), to free up space for a minor leaguer or two who they want to protect, but I don't see any need for large-scale purging (unless they just want to clear out some guys who aren't in their plans, of course).

zambonir 2022-09-15 04:44:51 UTC #324

I don't think Eflin is the one who'll be declining it. He was probably going to be had he stayed healthy.

andyb 2022-09-15 05:27:58 UTC #325

Guys like Tayler Scott or Nattoli are only remotely likely to be protected over the winter. They are 30+ year old career minor leaguers who were useful depth for the very short term but the type that can be signed for pennies as minor league free agents over the winter. They do not complicate any of the important 40-man questions. The more important ones are things like Carlos De La Cruz worth protecting and whether someone like Hans Crouse (who did just come back) still merits it.

Florida_Sunshine 2022-09-15 13:07:51 UTC #326

At $15M for 2023, Eflin would jump at that. Phillies either decline or renegotiate. His days may well be over in Philly.

But, why not bring back Hand and Robertson?

andyb 2022-09-15 13:27:39 UTC #327

The Eflin mutual option was always a starting point in negotiations and had a tiny chance of being accepted. Eflin had to be worth exactly $15 million and not be healthy enough to get more than a 1-year contract. He is probably not worth $15 million off this past season though I could see him coming back for like $10 million with incentives on innings pitched that could push it to $15 million or even a bit higher.

Who knows? Some organization might think they can buy low on a 3-year deal. Eflin might prefer the 1 year make-good contract. Or he might realize he'll never have healthy knees and take 3/30 if he can get it.

Austinfan 2022-09-15 15:55:43 UTC #328

Doubt anyone offers Eflin more than a one year deal until he starts 25+ games.

The knees are more concerning than an ACL, for example, with the ACL, once a veteran has shown they've regained their velocity and command, move on. The knee will always be an issue.

Aquapong 2022-09-15 16:26:13 UTC #329

Yeah someone will pay him assuming they’ll get 20 starts from him, not 33 starts.

zambonir 2022-09-15 16:49:47 UTC #330

They may well bring back one or both, but for the purposes of a 40-man roster management discussion, not an immediate issue. Aging relievers (and non-ace starters for that matter) are not the sort of free agents you have to lock up in the first few weeks (and if both sides are already on the same page they can also quietly wait untl after Rule 5 to formalize it).

If you were going to bring back one of Eflin, Gibson or Thor, who would you bring back? Not sure the answer is clear. I might still like Eflin best as the lowest-cost/incentive-laden option vs. an aging inconsistent Gibson and a diminished Thor. Eflin's ceiling is probably highest, if not easily reached without perfect health.

Aquapong 2022-09-15 16:55:30 UTC #331

Eflin for me.

Austinfan 2022-09-15 19:14:42 UTC #332

Probably depends on cost on all these guys, and whether they can work out of the pen.

You'll want at least 6 SPs, but 2 have to work out of the Pen in April and 1 for much of the season.
Eflin is showing he can do that right now. Can Thor or Gibson work out of the pen? Will they be willing to?
Falter seems to have locked up one starting spot, but I don't see any of the kids starting in April.
So there are two spots available.

Meanwhile, you really don't want Hand or Robertson closing games going forward if you can develop a better young arm to go with SD (Brogdon has added a nice cutter to go with his change and FB, and Alvarado has taken a step up). So you want to pay them like 7th inning guys.

andyb 2022-09-15 19:17:35 UTC #333

I think the chance of Thor coming back is like 1%. Nice guy, but until the stuff comes back he'll want more money and more of a role than we will give him. You do not bring Eflin or Gibson back as a reliever. You simply don't. Maybe they move Suarez to a bullpen role, though guessing they want to see if he can handle more innings next year.

Austinfan 2022-09-15 19:34:12 UTC #334

We'll see about Eflin, he seems to have embraced the role, and it might be easier on his knee to pitch 1-2 innings then take a day or two off. As a spot starter, he can avoid overworking the knee. He has the stuff to make it work, he was hitting 94 and I'll bet in a couple weeks will be up to 96 or so in a relief role.

Gibson and Suarez both have stuff that works better as starters, especially since the LOOGY role is obsolete.

andyb 2022-09-15 19:46:13 UTC #335

Who said Suarez has to be a LOOGY? He can be a 2+ inning weapon out of the bullpen especially if he follows a right-handed starter.

He has run out of gas this year. Maybe he is not a 170-inning starter. He could be a really valuable 80-90 inning reliever over 50 outings. Eflin has never relieved really. The constant warmups and more frequent appearances could be even worse on his knees. Maybe he gets converted there eventually, but nobody is going to give him $10 million a year to relieve. Somebody might give him that to start.

zambonir 2022-09-15 20:05:43 UTC #336

He's embraced the role for about as long as I've embraced my mid-day cup of coffee.

But I do concede there is a certainly a scenario where he does well and considers that he might have just as much success/make as much money as a higher-end reliever as a starter. He certainly wouldn't be the first (heck, just on the Phillies alone we had both Myers and Ian Kennedy, as well as myriad fringe starters like Madson and Morgan - and Suarez! - who made the change).

I guess I don't see Eflin getting $10 million. Maybe $7-8 with IP/GS incentives.

andyb 2022-09-15 20:18:09 UTC #337

The main point on the salary is he'd get like $2 million if signed to be a reliever. There are just much cheaper options with track records out there (like Andrew Bellatti) if all you want is a middle reliever. Eflin has been good enough when healthy that someone will want him as a starter even if the contract is mostly incentives.

zambonir 2022-09-15 20:21:05 UTC #338

I was thinking more like $4-6 million but I guess he'd have to establish himself as a reliever - and a late-inning reliever - (like Kennedy) to get that.

andyb 2022-09-15 20:33:19 UTC #339

He actually looked OK in the role last night. I was actually expecting him to finish rather than 1 inning and then Brogdon in the 9th. He'll just need to be a reliever for at least 20-30 games before someone will sign him to be that. Has he ever pitched on even 1-day rest in his career?

andyb 2022-09-15 21:08:46 UTC #340

Gelb chat on various topics:

He thinks Falter is the odd man out when Wheeler comes back. That does make some sense and they can still give Falter the start in one of the double-header games that last week.

Now as to our game 3 wild card starter, Gelb recommends using Eflin as an opener followed by Suarez. Not the worst strategy IMO.