2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[allentown]

I doubt they can wrap up prior to the last 3 series. If we win half of our remaining games, that puts us at only 87-88 wins. We would have to go on a tear to achieve an early wrap-up.

[andyb]

As long as they can be 3-4 games up for the last wild card I think they will be OK during that last stretch. As we all know the 3rd wildcard might be better than the 2nd this year (though Albert Pujols reverting to his 25-year-old self has made St. Louis more dangerous).

[zambonir]

I don't think they can wrap it up before the entire road trip, but they won't have to have an especially good road trip, or need the games in Houston (and Houston sure won't). And it's an easy road trip compared to the West Coast (despite what the Cubs did to us in Philly).

But all that assumes returning to the previous level of performance now, i.e. dominating this home stand and going .500 against the Braves and Jays. Obviously that can't be assumed with all the injuries.

No sign of the Brewers making a run either, but that would be another x factor.

I still want the 6 seed purely for logistics. Go from Houston to St. Louis to NY (or Atlanta) before a Game 3 in Philadelphia. That is far better than Houston to NY (or Atlanta) to LA to Philly.

Either way, they could easily lose the first series in 2, or be down 2 in the NLDS going home, but still seems a hair less imposing as the #6.

[Philsmania]

Zoinks...in order to play a home game in October, the Phillies will need to get through a fourteen or fifteen game road trip.

Three in Chicago.
Four in Washington.
Three in Houston
Two or three in St. Louis, New York or Atlanta.
Two in (presumably) Los Angeles, New York or Atlanta.

Hopefully, the Astros will have wrapped up AL homefield advantage by the time we play them and the Dodgers will have wrapped up overall homefield advantage by the time the Phillies head to Houston.

[zambonir]

Yup. It's a small but not insignificant thing if they can be in the same time zone for the wild card round (going from Houston to St. Louis) and avoid travelling to (as well as back from) Pacific time.

So far I'm also finding it easy to resist buying any sort of ticket package to try and secure a playoff option...still such a long ways away/long odds that they get those games.

Will be real interesting to see how they do against the Braves. Two weeks ago we would have said, based on regular season results, that playing the Braves was preferable to playing the Mets, but that is less clear now. Braves have been red-hot forever and Mets are swooning.

But first we gotta stop swooning.

[Patchmk88]

Baring an injury, the Phillies will be unlucky enough to have never missed Alcantara in a Marlins series this year.

[Philsmania]

I'm not sure I would say that the Mets are swooning. Yes, they just lost a series to the Nationals at home but, prior to then, took two out of three from the Dodgers. And, they are 6-4 in their last ten.

[David_Criss]

Luis Garcia claimed by Detroit

[zambonir]

Yeah I realize it's more that the Braves have just been that good, but I feel like if the Mets actually do blow the NL East that will count as a swoon. Also:

The Braves are 14-4 since Aug. 15, while the Mets are 10-10 in that span.

Braves are within reach of NL East lead. How worried are the Mets?

The good news for the 5th seed is the Mets and Braves might not be able to set up their pitching if the NL East goes down to the end.

[andyb]

What would the New York tabloids say if both the Mets and Yankees blew it?

[Philsmania]

One national writers take on the underwhelming performance of NL wild card contenders lately.

Does anybody actually want to win the NL Wild Card?

[zambonir]

Wow, people still read Deadspin?

[Sabin]

Thank you for your support of Deadspin.

Been awhile since I read that.

[gmwannabe]

wow, the marlins have great young pitching! I'd trade Vierling, Minyety, Bonaifacio, Marchan and Morales for Alcantara and Luzardo in a heartbeat. No questions asked. Make up for your getting fleeced with the O'Hoppe trade, DD.
gm

[BaseballCat]

The Marlins would have to have no heartbeat to make that trade!

[zambonir]

GM likes to joke around, the trade price would obviously be very very different. But that doesn't mean they might not be available some day. Alcantara is signed through 2027 (including an option) and Luzardo is controlled that long. These are not the old Marlins, but they also don't seem to have it completely together - a future fire sale, or just a Rays-like approach to shipping out players as they get more expensive, doesn't seem out of the question.

Imagine if they also had Sixto Sanchez!

[gmwannabe]

they would be sitting pretty with Sixto doing well. Zamby, I would still make that trade.
gm

[BostonRoss]

The Marlins did trade Stanton with like 10 years left on his contract.

[zambonir]

One of the new ownership group's first moves. Rebuild hasn't gone any better/faster than it did for the Phillies, which I guess also makes Derek Jeter Andy MacPhail. But they don't lack for talent. Remains to be seen how good Ng actually is as GM (or if ownership lets her be good).

[zambonir]

I guess Stott is sitting again tonight, can Sosa do it twice?

Bryson Stott against lefties since June 1: .304/.368/.493 with a 140 wRC+.

— Destiny Lugardo ( @destiny_lugardo ) September 7, 2022

Edit: Matt takes a deeper dive

They need to play Stott more and not hide him from lefties, but also Sosa went 2-2 with a double, a home run, and a walk yesterday.

That said
RHBs vs Rogers - .299/.368/.498
LHBs vs Rogers - .210/.319/.321
and Rogers throws a ton 4S which is a Stott weakness

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) September 7, 2022

Why play Marsh over Guthrie, and sit Stott for Sosa?

Bailey Falter is running a 48.2% FB% this year which is far and away the highest on the Phillies staff, and that means putting a better defensive outfield out there.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) September 7, 2022