2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[Austinfan]

Wonder if there was a philosophical difference, watching the big league team, it's obvious that Long changed the approach for a lot of players, teaching them to sit on FBs early and to use the whole field instead of trying to pull everything.

Some strange things, Simmons looks like crap, then takes off when he's promoted to JS, Rojas and De La Cruz hitting better at Reading, and so on. Maybe it's ballpark, maybe the coaching changes are more evident higher in the system right now. Inquiring minds want to know.

[allentown]

It's not at all unusual to hit better at Reading than at Jersey Shore, especially for a power guy like De la Cruz. Obviously less so for Rojas. Over the years, Lakewood has been the pits for hitters.

[zambonir]

Good morning. If the Phillies go 12-12 the rest of the way and finish 88-74, Milwaukee would need to go 16-7 to finish 89-73 and beat the tiebreaker

— Paul ( @paul_boye ) September 10, 2022

(both teams won since that tweet. Phillies will be ahead of San Diego after tonight, unless Heath Hembree - yes, he is on the Dodgers - blows an 8-2 lead in the 9th. He's already made it 8-4 with three hits and a sacrifice fly.)

[Aquapong]

If we don’t get the game in today, it looks like both teams have off tomorrow. I wonder if the Nats would just stay another day?

[Patchmk88]

Our schedule gets pretty brutal for a couple weeks after today. We have three at Miami against their three best starters, the 9 games against the Braves or the Blue Jays. These next couple weeks are going to be big for securing a playoff spot.

[zambonir]

I think the scenario in the tweet I posted above is probably about how it's going to play out (without the Brewers actually making it tough). Hopefully they won't squander today the way they did the Marlins series, especially with Nola on the mound. If they don't I reckon it will be:

2-0 Nats
2-1 at Marlins
1-2 at Braves
1-1 Blue Jays
2-2 Braves
2-1 at Cubs
2-2 at Nationals

That would be 12-9 and so long as the Brewers haven't gone on a tear they won't need to win any games in Houston. If they go more like 10-11 maybe they do. But either way they don't have to play like they did in August (18-11. They are 4-4 in September so far).

For sure the Braves (who could easily sweep us in Atlanta or win a series in Philly) are the biggest wrinkle, along with needing to play the Cubs much better than last time (or how they played out west).

[nycphils]

Bohm this season:

.957 OPS vs RHP
.646 OPS vs. LHP

[mdougherty12]

Bohm this season:

.957 OPS vs RHP
.646 OPS vs. LHP

I think you've got those reversed.

[zambonir]

Heh, yeah, that would be a very confounding reverse split! The problem, of course, is that he faces RHP twice as often (more, even: 377 PAs to 157). Were he actually a LHB who couldn't hit couldn't hit LHP you could easily sit him for a better defensive player on those days but he's not (and our current defensive upgrade is also a RHB).

I would like to know how much that also correlates with what we perceive to be his slumps and hot streaks month-to-month (though it's also easy to see his torrid August involved a lot of BABIP luck).

[nycphils]

Whoops, of course, apologies for the error. He is of course better v LHP - I just was surprised by the extent of it

[zambonir]

So when do we start a specific wild card race or magic number thread? I believe it's currently 20 (Phillies wins/Milwaukee losses). And hey, we didn't have a uniform number Opening Day countdown this year.

Ironically, it also seems like the Phillies' success or failure in their seven games against the Braves will determine whether or not they play the Braves in the first round. Win enough of those games and not only will they likely stay ahead of the Padres but it will help the Mets. Lose enough of them and they return to 6th seed which I still can't hate, and Braves might also win the East.

[BostonRoss]

And hey, we didn't have a uniform number Opening Day countdown this year.

Probably because we weren’t sure when Opening Day would be!

[zambonir]

That we actually did find out pretty quickly but of course those countdowns were usually for pitchers and catchers reporting. By the time there was any notice of that we were probably at Bob Boone or Ryan Howard.

[zambonir]

Still gotta do another move (Sanchez presumably) tomorrow

The Phillies have reinstated RHP Zach Eflin from the 60-day IL. Additionally, the club has recalled RHP Mark Appel from Lehigh Valley (AAA) and placed him on the 60-day IL with right elbow inflammation.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) September 12, 2022

[andyb]

Sanchez already optioned. Next moves will be position players. I think there is a good chance they will bring Hall back for the 3rd catcher now that he got hot this past week. Castellanos unfortunately is further away.

[el-pietro]

I think its currently 19 for the final wild card spot over the Brewers as the Phillies hold the tie breaker.

[gmwannabe]

heading out of the country for 2 week. I guess by the time I get back this should be finalized. hopefully for the best. hope harper gets hot and wheeler returns to top form. also, I hope eagles aren't 1-2 when I get home. Red October here we come!
gm

[zambonir]

Strictly speaking I suppose that is true. I imagine MLB.com would have to manually correct that in the official standings.

At least we're not worrying about a Game 163.

Seems to me this team is exactly as good as it appears to be, which is both the good news and the bad news. They are the 4th or 5th best team in the NL, just like the record says (with the resurgent Cardinals rather than the Padres as the other). Some might say they've been better that since June 1 but so have the Braves (and Dodgers all along) while the Mets haven't actually been worse.

So, anything can happen. But I don't think we're looking at a stressful stretch run, just some suspense over seeding and some frustration if our .500 record against the Braves doesn't hold up for the seven left with them.

[Austinfan]

With SD and Eflin back, I think they can avoid "overworked bullpen syndrome," where you have a cascading effect as pitchers throw too many innings, and their ineffectiveness force other pitchers to throw too many innings . . .

[zambonir]

That starts with the starters. Eflin will help there in whatever his role turns out to be. Wheeler will help more. The rest of them are still unpredictable (and the offense plays a part too, Thomson will stick with a struggling guy longer if he feels like the bats can get him five runs, which is what the offense is built to do).

The reality is, the Phillies really just had a bad west coast road trip, not an extended period of struggle. They lost Seranthony on the 21st (as the Mets series ended) and Wheeler on the 25th but still are 12-7 since 8/21. Mostly over bad teams but that's not news either.