2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[andyb]

Seranthony is in 2-3 days. It was beginning of September. Saw they moved an appearance down to Jersey Shore. I don't think he has pitched well enough to call up. VV has a better chance depending on tonight.

Velasquez did not start in AAA tonight like Girardi has implied. I wonder if they knew tonight was going to be a bullpen game so they are just calling him up tomorrow (which of course will get rained out).

[bkox]

VV has a better chance depending on tonight.

VV ended up not pitching tonight. Joe was wrong.

Indeed, it is RHP Mark Appel is starting tonight for @IronPigs

Manager Gary Jones said RHP Vince Velasquez will be pitching for the club this week, but not tonight.

Velasquez last pitched 2 innings last Wednesday for @Threshers

— Tom Housenick ( @TomHousenick ) August 31, 2021

[zambonir]

But would they put Seranthony back on the 60 or activate and option him?

Not really a big deal about Vince but I'm sure the chain of command/division of labor is a bit bumpy right now.

[el-pietro]

2.5 games back in both the division and the wild card right now and they don't need to overtake anyone else in the wild card race.
But with injuries mounting and covid a threat to take out half the roster at any point its hard to feel confident they make it.
If they did make it as the second wild card it would most likely be a one game playoff in San Francisco which would be very interesting. Winner of that would play the Dodgers I assume (or the other way around if LA can't run down the Giants in the last month).
Win the division and its the Brewers and a game 1 Cy Young showdown between Corbin Burnes and Zach Wheeler.

[zambonir]

The wild card is still a challenge, it's a four-team race (Padres, Reds, Phillies, Cards). Certainly one game at SF or LA would be better than nothing.

It would be great to get out of this week down 1 1/2 (another win over Nats and another Braves loss to LA) but things will probably reverse again after that. Road series in Milwaukee could be both a turning point (either way) and a litmus test. We do still have a slightly better schedule so the key is to just try and stay within two by the last six games, three of which are head-to-head.

Feels like COVID can mess up any team at this point. I almost wonder if the Phillies' status is a plus rather than a minus now, since they have to follow stricter protocols (and must not be doing too badly at that, since no unvaccinated players were close contacts of the three breakthrough guys).

[Austinfan]

One off the more bizarre aspects of this hot streak are a series of guys hitting better in the ML than in AAA, maybe the memo about checking for foreign substances never made it to AAA?

[el-pietro]

Fangraphs gives the Phillies a 30.8% playoff chance, with a 24.6% chance of winning the division and an 6.2% chance of winning the wild card spot. They project 84 wins.
Baseball Reference gives the Phillies a 29.8% chance, with a 23% chance of the division and 6.8% of making the wild card. They also project 84 wins.
Even if we do end up missing the playoffs, a winning record would be something...

[Philsmania]

Hey, wasn't Corbin someone a few people wanted to pay to add a couple years ago?
Just shows you why you have to be wary of most pitchers in FA.

But, he did help the Nationals get a ring so it worked out for them at least, even if he is an albatross the next couple of years.

[el-pietro]

Just looking at the remaining schedule and allowing myself to get excited before the inevitable September collapse. The Phillies only play 7 games against teams with a winning record currently. 4 games against the Brewers (.609) and 3 games against the Braves (.534).
They play as many games against teams with winning records below .400. They have 3 vs the Orioles (.313) and 4 vs the Pirates (.364) back to back.
Even more encouragingly the upcoming opponets record is even more pronounced in August than for the season as a whole. For example the Cubs have a .436 record for the season but a .259 record in August. The Marlins have a .414 record for the season but a .393 record in August, though they also have something like a .800 record against the Phillies in games that matter in recent years.
Obviously recent form is just that, and the Mets won't continue their .321 August record into September, but looking at the remaining schedule its not inconceivable to imagine the Phillies winning 20 games to get to 88 wins.

Meanwhile the Braves have tonights final game vs the Dodgers, as well as series against the Giants and Padres on the road, and the series against us and the final series at home to the Mets. On the other hand they have 7 more with the Rockies, 3 with the Marlins and 3 on the road in Arizona. Maybe that 13 game west coast series right before the host the Phillies makes the difference.

[bkox]

Phillies game rained out tonight

[andyb]

It actually looks like the bulk of the storm is going to miss us here in DC. Wondering if they should have waited till mid-afternoon to call it. I guess they do both have the off day tomorrow when the forecast is better, but it is not like they are going to get much of a crowd either way.

[bkox]

By Baseball Prospectus' defensive metrics, J.T. Realmuto has been the best cumulative defensive catcher in baseball this year. He leads the league in framing runs above average, and is 5th in the rate version (CSAA - Called Strikes Above Average) https://t.co/7nvBvL4nbS

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) September 1, 2021

[LoneStarPhan]

COVID remains a cloud over this team and makes it difficult to ge t excited about the Phillies chances.

An assistant football coach at Allen High in the DFW metroplex came down with COVID in early August and died less than three weeks later in the hospital. The news on tv reported the story. The final line of the report: he was not vaccinated - it was a personal choice.

I continue to marvel at the foolish reasons people use for not getting vaccinated. This is especially true when you are letting your team, your teammates, and your fans down. Nola and his fellow antivaxers have already hurt the team. I hope they don’t cause too much further damages. But the potential to ruin the season remains.

[zambonir]

Even if we do end up missing the playoffs, a winning record would be something...

It would be the same old thing, alas.

I mean, yeah, they haven't actually been over .500 in the last three years (nor the six before that!) but not much difference between 80, 81 or 82 in terms of general quality. If they are sniffing 84-85 and don't get eliminated until the last weekend of the season, I'm okay with that. If they slip back to 4-5 games out after the Milwaukee series and don't get close again, it will just annoy me that the Mets get a better draft pick.

The schedule does look favorable, but playing .650 baseball is still a big ask. I'm hoping the Braves struggle against the Rockies (at least on the road).

[el-pietro]

Would you be more frustrated if they were out of it with 5 or 6 games to go, or if they put themselves in position to win the division/WC but lose 2 from 3 in Miami? Because I feel like we're looking at another wholesale September collapse, or we're going to come up against the Phillies inability to the beat the Marlins.

[allentown]

It's better to have a chance right up to the end of the season. It would also be significant progress to win 84 games and not make the playoffs.

[xogfog]

Really? Significant? Throw out 2020 as an anomaly, they were 81-81 in 2019, 80-82 in 2018. Three games over .500 is not significant progress. 89-91 wins would have been significant, 84 is still a letdown based on manager gravitas and payroll.

[allentown]

Yes, for the Phillies it is significant progress. After so many years required to get to .500 and then completely stalling out last season, they needed to take at least a half step forward for everyone's sanity. So many organizational changes and no progress, as in even the tiny progress of the first winning record in a decade would be very bad, as would another Sept collapse. So, yes, to me 3 games over .500 is significant progress -- far from where I want them to be and where they need to get to, but the longest journey begins with a single step and we've been unable to take that step.

And I don't deny that 84 wins will be a letdown and disappointment. It will also be aa significant step forward. And without that step, you could kiss away any chance of seeing the current payroll again any time soon. I don't know that managerial gravitas is worth anything.

[xogfog]

Well, I think managerial gravitas, and you can throw in GM gravitas as well, does temper fan expectation. I also would say, I know a win is a win, but at least 6-8 wins will have come against a tanking Nationals team.

[zambonir]

I mean, you guys are just arguing over the word "significant." I would take the side that says it is progress but not significant progress. Because I don't see that they took any steps to get better per se. Just better luck, and, granted, a better (or at least more aggressive) GM at the deadline (though he was still covering for his own mistakes). I'm not too worried about them being cheap, Dombrowski and Middleton still want to win with these players, and that means spending to around the same level. If they change their mind, that means a real rebuild, and that's okay by me too.

As a fan, I want the last six games to matter. Even if I hate them.

I think we're gonna get wins against the Marlins this time. If anything stops this team other than the Braves not cooling off enough it will be health. We're doing this right now w/o Rhy and JT but that isn't necessarily sustainable against better competition (even mediocre competition is better than what we've faced this week). Even Harper's run isn't necessarily sustainable, though you know he won't take a game off even if his back flares up again.