2021 Collective Bargaining Negotiations

andyb 2022-03-16 18:50:55 UTC #382

Looks like it applies now. The $225K draft and follow looks really interesting, though perhaps limited. It only applies to picks 11-20. The pick can sign any time before a closed period which I assume is a few weeks before the next draft. But remember if this player has a good year they can go into the next draft and potentially get more than $225K. So that is why I think it is limited. Teams won't take too many because it is only one of 20 picks now and the player picked needs to remain at that middling value of not worth more than 225K.

julio 2022-03-16 19:00:43 UTC #383

I see your point. Sounds like the most likely case would be somebody in that value range who the club picks 11-20, thinking they might be able to sign him right after the draft, but who decides to go the JC route in hopes of upping his value... but doesn't.

zambonir 2022-03-16 20:57:53 UTC #384

Gelb with another wrinkle that also affected the Phillies' thinking

The team engaged Tampa Bay about a trade for Kevin Kiermaier before the lockout, according to multiple sources. The Phillies were willing to assume most of Kiermaier’s money for a marginal prospect return. Kiermaier would have been a massive defensive upgrade for the Phillies, although he would have come with questions about his durability and performance at the plate.

The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).

Had the Phillies acquired Kiermaier in a trade, he would have counted for $14.67 million against the luxury tax payroll in 2022.

andyb 2022-03-16 21:10:18 UTC #385

Kiermaier definitely is not a fit at that AAV price. Small Tommy Pham mention in that article. Another OF bat that could help though his good defensive days are long gone. He hits right-handed which they might prefer for that last bench spot.

zambonir 2022-03-16 21:37:15 UTC #386

I think Kiermaier is almost untradeable at that price (teams were happy to shell out cash but not CBT room) but generally speaking, something of interest going forward. Will actually break in the Phillies favor late in Harper's contract, if they get there (and the CBA's the same).

andyb 2022-03-26 13:24:37 UTC #387

Fangraphs on the new AAV calculations and potential ways for teams to take advantage of the new rules. It really seems to me that there is huge incentive now to front load large contracts. I am guessing MLB will put a spirit of the rules stop to any really bad things, but remember when hockey used to have these 10-15 year deals that were front loaded but then ended with small salaries (15 year deal - 10 years at 10 million a year till the player is 38 then 5 years at $1 million a year so the total deal is $105 million for 15 years).

Now there is not much incentive for mid career players like Schwarber and Castellanos to do this, but an older player might be tempted, especially if the out years were almost guaranteed to be years when they are retired already. If I had to guess we are going to see some addendum that salaries cannot be lowered more than a small percent (10%?) over the course of a contract. For now though, if the Phillies can afford it, they should front load all their deals so guys like Castellanos and Schwarber are only making like $10 million in their final season.

zambonir 2022-03-31 00:28:42 UTC #388

Germane to the new MLB system. Pretty crazy that journalists voting for ROTY can actually affect both player compensation and teams getting draft picks.