2020 Phillies Spring Training News, Notes & Discussion

[bigegypt0417]

Do you think he starts at reading or back to clearwater?

I always feel like he's older than he actually is...21 years old this whole season.

[andyb]

He did not really earn it last season and did not play over the winter that I know about. While he still could earn a job in Spring Training, he probably should start at Clearwater and earn his way up. As I recall he did not really do that well in the cold weather in Lakewood.

With Herrera added to the AAA/AA mix and depending on how many non-roster OFs are kept, there is probably not any crying need to push him to AA at the start of the season.

[bigegypt0417]

I would hope he starts to make some strides but i'm not holding out much hope anymore.

[zambonir]

I'm sure if you're Edgar Garcia or Anthony Swarzak the games already mean something.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I'm sure if you're Edgar Garcia ... the games already mean something.

I had to double-check, but today's 9th inning implosion was by Julian Garcia, not Edgar. That's not saying that Edgar looked very good in his lone outing earlier this spring.

[zambonir]

Oh good,

[phillychuck]

Ortiz: He hit a decent slider way out to RF. Good for him!

[donaldorc]

With Herrera added to the AAA/AA mix and depending on how many non-roster OFs are kept, there is probably not any crying need to push him to AA at the start of the season

Over/under on Herrera’s first appearance in a spring game?

[zambonir]

I'd say either by Sunday or never. Seems to me it becomes less likely, not more, the longer spring training goes on. Playing time becomes more scarce, and players who actually have a chance to make the roster (some of whom might also have opt-outs or retention bonuses if they're not making the 26) need as much playing time as the starters. These ABs for the likes of Randolph and Ortiz and Vierling are little gifts the Phillies give their young players (even failed #1 pick). They are not giving Odubel any gifts.

Even if Haseley is out for a while I don't think there's any chance they bring him into the major league clubhouse indefinitely.

[tom81]

Over/under on Herrera’s first appearance in a spring game?

Did you leave out a comma after appearance?
I think he appears in one of the next three away spring games and might take the bet in one of the next two.

[tom81]

I’m encouraged by the reports that two of the players who who had performance issues during the season from wearing out, Kingery & Eflin, both have put on some extra weight this off-season. Also that two who had put on extra they didn’t need, Segura & Herrera, have taken some off. Kapler is such a fitness proponent but maybe Girardi is just better at leading and getting others to follow?

[allentown]

I like this answer from new hitting coach Dillon in a recent Athletic column:

How would you describe your hitting philosophy?
Very individualized, so just based on the player, how he moves and strengths and weaknesses and body types and all of that stuff. You take all those things into account and try to make them the best version of themselves. That’s the biggest way. That’s where I start from a physical standpoint. And then, I think what makes me different than some other guys out there is I focus a lot on the decision-making stuff. We train, do drills and other things accordingly to tax the brain and the way they make decisions, those type of things. So, a combination of those two things, for sure.

I'm reading much the same from the new pitching coach. It seems the Phillies have learned from some of their errors of the past two seasons. We had become too much the novice, true-believer analytics organization who decided what the perfect round peg pitching and hitting approach was and then tried to make all of our square peg players pitch and hit as if they were round pegs. No individualization. No recognition that while many pitchers have found success with high FB, this approach won't work for all, just as high launch angle won't work for all. If you truly believe that you need an organization of round pegs to win in today's game, then go ahead and draft and sign as many good round pegs as you can find, but the square peg/round hole stubbornness is a loser's game.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

This gives me the most optimism for the 2020 season.

[Austinfan]

Yep. Good thing Middleton overruled Klentak and hired Girardi and fired the pitching coach.

For one thing, they were mis-using analytics, the three outcomes is only one aspect, the other which is now getting more attention is exit velocity, more contact with less velocity is as effective as the big K pitcher.

With Wheeler and Velasquez, they should pound the top of the K zone, but show enough breaking stuff and changeups to keep hitters' timing off.

With Nola and Eflin they should work down and in and out, and use the high FB as a "show me" pitch to keep hitters from sitting on the knee high two seamer and off speed stuff.

This is how Appel got ruined, he was an elite two seamer coming out of college, Houston tired to make him into a top of the zone four seam pitcher and he never recovered.

Different strokes for different folks.

[phillychuck]

AF, there is no evidence that pitchers control exit velocity. The distribution is random from pitcher to pitcher, there's no trend toward effective or ineffective pitchers (at least that's been uncovered). It doesn't mean that trend doesn't exist, but there are, as of now, no "footprints in the butter". (Bill James quote, one of my favorites...approximately-->"When you claim there is an elephant in your refrigerator, you ought to find footprints in the butter".)

[Austinfan]

A Baseball’s Exit Velocity Is Five Parts Hitter, One Part Pitcher

In my models1 of batted ball velocity that incorporate the pitcher, batter and ballpark, the batter’s effect dominates the pitcher’s. A ball’s exit velocity after a bat strikes it is about five times more the batter’s doing than the pitcher’s. This fact seems to partially vindicate FIP — batters really are the ones in control.

At the same time, the pitcher’s effect is not negligible.2 While the best batters increase batted ball velocity by as much as 7-8 mph, the best pitchers suppress it by 1.5 mph compared with the average pitcher.

That has real significance: Such a decrease roughly equates to a 13-point decrease in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for a given batted ball.3 Over the course of a game, the pitchers who can best decrease exit velocity save about a quarter of a run (on average). A quarter of a run doesn’t sound like much? Multiplied over a season, all those quarters of a run add up to about one win of value.4

[Austinfan]

I'd also point out that that the emphasis on the three outcomes has probably reduced the pitcher effect, as we saw last year, a lot of pitchers were coached away from contact, rather than a balance between reducing contact and reducing exit velocity. The smart PCs will take advantage of a "market weaknesses" and start to coach some pitchers to focus more on reducing exit velocity (i.e., those with better command, a mix of pitches and less velocity on their 4 seamer).

Dallas Keuchel, for example, didn't build a career based on missing bats.

[andyb]

Back to Phillies player news - Robert Stock dealing with forearm tightness. He was probably 50-50 at best to make the major league roster. Obviously it could clear up so no decisions need to made for a few weeks. The silver lining is we'll probably need some 40-man spots.

https://twitter.com/MattGelb/status/1232783679895801858

[zambonir]

Stock has options

[andyb]

Thinking more of TJ surgery and 60-day DL potentially. If healthy Stock would be 50-50 to make the team and probably 90% likely to be on the LHV-Philly rotating roster spot train throughout the year.