2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[andyb]

The Phillies are going to have to gut it out today with the pitchers they have. Hammer, Garcia, and Davis are the relievers on the 40 and they all pitched last night. So did De Los Santos and Cole Irvin started a few days ago and is not rested. The only 40-man pitcher they could add is Medina who has been lousy his past 2 starts.

Is it worth the 40-man move to get Fernando Salas one more time? Do they have one more 60-man left (Ramos - how bad is his injury?). Not a good situation.

At least the pitching matchup could not be more favorable. Nola against Ross Detwiler back from the baseball dead with a 6.35 ERA.

[gmwannabe]

yeah, with that high era, he'll probably limit the phils to 2 runs. Sees to happen many more times than not.
gm

[Austinfan]

That's ridiculous.

Quinn was throwing in the upper 70s, pretty obvious he was instructed not to let it loose, he has more arm strength than that. Kapler was "throwing the game" in the sense he wasn't going to risk injury to Suarez or Eflin.

And given the current state of the pen, they simply can't afford to hurt another RP just to slightly increase their probability of winning one game. Klentak has pulled all the rabbits out of the hat.

[zambonir]

Seems like he was trying to win the game too hard, if anything, by PR-ing for Elfin, who was not as likely to score from 2B as VV (in addition to being sore-armed). He also arguably tried to hard to win the game by playing match-ups to get the last out in 9 innings - but then didn't.

They could still call up one of those AAA relievers if they wanted to, surely one of them can pitch two days in a row, but you gotta assume Nola's gonna go 7 unless he really fades.

I've lost track of Anderson, is he he hurt? He's still on the 40. So is Eickhoff.

[Austinfan]

Eflin said he had tricep soreness, with Hunter and Morgan going down with those kind of injuries, I'm sure Kapler didn't want him going any longer.

Eickhoff is rehabbing in the minors, Anderson is on the 7 day DL, hasn't pitched since June 23.

[zambonir]

Yeah it was a semi-rhetorical question but couldn't remember the details, thanks. Supposedly Eickhoff is close. Personally I would DFA him (or they could do the Cozens scenario of call-up/60-day) if they were desperate but they also probably intend to use him in September.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The Pirates have claimed Phillies reliever Yacksel Rios, the teams report.

According to MLBtraderumors.

[zambonir]

kind of funny, under different circumstances they could have just traded him for Dickerson

Walding also cleared waivers and remains an Iron Pig. Cozens we knew about already.

[andyb]

I'm honestly not looking to blame anyone, really just trying to point out the McPhail / Klentak era is way too new to be judged so harshly. The rebuild was started too late, I don't care whose decision that was, but it certainly left the new guys in a tough situation. The Phillies were coming off a 99 loss season when Klentak was hired in October. The same year they drafted Randolph in June.

MacPhail and Klentak aren't from Philadelphia and they certainly don't use language that appeals to Philly fans, but they are smart guys. From what I can see, things are trending slowly, but they are trending in the right direction.

The rebuild did not start with Klentak though. The rebuild started a year or a year plus before that. The Hamels trade, and trades that got us Pivetta and Eflin were all done in 2014 and 2015. 2019 is year 6 of this rebuild and there has been plenty of time for a team capable of spending $200 million on payroll to become good.

The book is definitely still out on Klentak, but let's not say we are only 3+ years into the rebuild. The Hamels trade did give us significant assets. Alfaro and Williams have both looked great at times with the Phillies. Thompson and Eickhoff had their moments and at the very least were assets that could have been flipped at certain times. Alfaro did help us get Realmuto. Klentak does deserve more time, but he has also been given time and some decent assets. He clearly judged that the wild card was not worth trading prospects this time. That may very well have been the right decision, but he was certainly given the assets where there should have been some expectations of competing in 2019.

[schillingfan]

Well we are competing this year. We still are five games over 500=and if we play .500 ball the rest of the season we’ll have 87 wins, which means we were competing.

[andyb]

More like 84 wins. And I really a meant competing for a division.

[California_Dreamin]

No, SF, if the Phils play .500 ball the rest of the season they will finish with 83-84 wins and not 87. The problem is that they have been a less than .500 team for quite a while now and show no signs of improving. As hard as it is to fathom I could easily see this team finishing with a worse record than last year [80-82.]

I do not expect them to win more than 2-3 games on this upcoming 7 game road trip. Arizona has historically been a tough place for the Phillies to win and SF is still playing very well, notwithstanding what happened in Philadelphia. Added to that, Nola will only go once on the trip and in SF, a place he has not pitched well.

Look, this team has been living off of their early success for quite some time now, take away their 5-1 start and they are a .500 club. Arrieta is unlikely to finish the season, I do not believe Pivetta and Eflin will be happy with their moves to the bullpen, regardless of how they do, Franco will be missed in the clubhouse and I believe the team feels the front office should have done more to try and get a playoff berth.

I continue to believe the Phils are poorly, if not terribly, managed. Kapler is a snake oil sailsman, players can tell a phony when they see and hear one and I think they have completely tuned him out. Having a lineup with Quinn pitching and Velasquez in the outfield in a tie game is simply inexcusable, I am frankly amazed at how little this complete mismanagement of assets was discussed, probably because Velasquez did such heroic deeds in the outfield.

And today! Morin is removed a few days ago after 4 pitches and yet is allowed to pitch a second inning today after clearing struggling in his first inning. Even pulling Nicasio on Friday night with two outs and a chance to save the game rankles me and it did when Kapler did it. Nicasio had good stuff and has some experience saving games. By using Alvarez, who failed and having to bring in yet another hurler he used 4 pitchers to get 6 outs. Pathetic mismanagement of assets.

Look, there is so much I can't stand about Kapler's managing, he may be the worst I have seen since Nick Leyva. And there are so many qualified guys out there right now...Showalter, Girardi to name two. And they are more traditional, something I think the Phils need in spades. I understand the analytics aspect and encourage the Phils to continue to use it.

But when it becomes so all consuming and causes players to be viewed as nothing more than chess pieces on a chess board, it becomes counterproductive to the state of a franchise. This organization is a mess and I believe once Kapler gets fired he will never, ever get another managerial job again.

Never. He is that bad.

[Austinfan]

w

You can't buy your way through a rebuild. $200M just isn't enough, when a 3-4 WAR OF costs $26M a year. A 1 WAR SP is costing you $25M. FAs, if you're lucky and don't have a couple injuries/flops, are only going to get you 15-20 WAR at best (you need to reserve $50M or more for the rest of the roster)

So it required good trades and the farm system.
Alfaro and Williams were flawed players, lack of plate discipline, when they were obtained, and since then those flaws have limited their value, Williams is a flop and Alfaro on his way to one. Last year's unsustainable .406 BABIP is down to a still high .366 and his RC+ down from 96 to 88.
Eickhoff ironically was the only asset of value in that deal.
Diekman 2.2 WAR, Eickhoff 6.3 WAR, Alfaro 2.3 WAR, Williams -1.9 WAR, Thompson 0.3 WAR, Asher -0.4 WAR,

Hernandez for Arano
Revere for Cordero and Tirado
Papelon for Pivetta
Byrd for Lively
Rollins for Eflin and Windle
Giles for Velasquez

Klentak
Stewart, Sanchez and Alfaro for Realmuto
Crawford, Santana & Nicasio for Segura
L Garcia for Alvarez
Mills for Bour
Kilome for Cabrera
Galvis for De Los Santos

[andyb]

You can't buy your way through a rebuild. $200M just isn't enough, when a 3-4 WAR OF costs $26M a year. A 1 WAR SP is costing you $25M. FAs, if you're lucky and don't have a couple injuries/flops, are only going to get you 15-20 WAR at best (you need to reserve $50M or more for the rest of the roster)

Why do you keep insisting other posters are saying you can buy your way through a rebuild? Klentak was given a top 10 system with some high draft picks. And the ability to spend $200 million. He was also given a bad major league roster. So significant assets along with a bad current roster.

I get you hate Williams. But Williams was pretty good before they messed him up this season. And Alfaro is having virtually the same season as last season being a slightly above average starting catcher (tougher ballpark means the same offense). You are the only one on the planet who considers him a flop.

Why are we not allowed to judge Klentak's term on the assets he was given and the decisions he made? He was given significant assets and he turned them into this roster. Segura and Realmuto, the 3 young pitchers being counted on for the rotation, and the reliever free agent signings are all Klentak. Are we not allowed to even ask the question of whether other strategies might have produced a better roster? And Middleton has nothing to do with this. Klentak is the GM. He bet on this core. Maybe he should have built a different core.

As I have said, Klentak has not been a bad GM. But we also can't say that he has been a good one yet either.

[Austinfan]

Aflaro is worse, the ballpark is why I referred to RC+, which is adjusted for ballpark effects. He's not a good hitter.
I hated both of them when the trade was made, very few hitters succeed in today's game if they lack plate discpline.

This was a top ten system only b/c of a lot of prospects added in trades, many of whom were overrated, and almost all have now graduated or flopped. The one good draft was 2014 with two college players who were quickly promoted. This merely disguised the rot for a couple years, now we know the foundations were compromised.

The core problem has been the lack of minor league talent, Klentak pushed to win too early, probably due to pressure from Middleton (I was preaching patience and told we just had to spend money, well, we did and so what?). You have to build a solid farm system before you make the win now moves to put you over the top.

For me the jury is out for a couple years, they're more aggressive promoting minor leaguers, and more aggressive releasing them, whether this "up or out" philosophy combined with an extra GCL team will increase the talent supply remains to be seen.

The one bad move was Moniak and Gowdy instead of Senzel.
The only other player doing much out of that 1st rd so far is Cal Quantrill on the Padres.

Other than that, not a lot of "whiffs" in the draft, the trades were solid if not overwhelming, the bullpen signings were a win now move that backfired primarily b/c of bad luck (Neshak the only RP with durability issues).

Problem is when you take over a bad team with a thin farm system, you pretty much have to be brilliant and/or very lucky. So far Klentak hasn't been either.

[andyb]

You are the only person on the planet who thinks the Phillies had a thin farm system 4 years ago. If the prospects were highly touted and did not develop or were not traded, then that is completely on the GM. You can't say the core problem has been the lack of minor league talent when Klentak was responsible for the most recent drafts and when he was responsible for trading talent from a highly rated system for other assets that have not turned out to be as good as we thought they would be.

You just seem to take the attitude that anything bad that happens is not Klentak's fault. One can say he has done a bunch of good things and still say he has also made moves that have not worked out (like signing Santana when 1B was not a position of need and then compounding the mistake by trading him only to see him then hit like you thought he would - one can spin that as bad luck OR one could say that Klentak messed up). Klentak has a mixed record. He still gets an incomplete grade of course, but there has been a mix of good and bad. We just have not consistently maximized the assets he was given.

2016 Prospects: 2016 Organizational Rankings - Baseball Prospectus

Not thin....

[Austinfan]

Williams, Alfaro and Appel, those were the big names that propelled this system in perceived ratings, add Lively, Pivetta and Eflin. Of these, five graduated and one was a class A head case. Crawford also graduated.

Which was my point which you ignored, the trades gave the farm system a temporary boost, but it was a "sugar rush," the underlying rot was disguised but not fixed.

Klentak didn't run a draft until 2016, who is left from 2015 and before.

AAA: Grullon, Cumana, Canelo, Pujols, Hernandez, DLS, Anderson, E Garcia, Gilbert, Rivero
AA: Gamboa, Rivas, L Williams, Randolph, Medina, Tavares, Llovera, Falter, Leftwich, G Armas, Viza
A+: R Duran, Cabral, Brito, Ortiz, Marcelino, Fanti
A: Guzman, Trejo, Matos, Troya,

[andyb]

You can't have it both ways. I guess every prospect Klentak inherited was overrated and the rest of baseball knew it at the time. And Klentak's draft since then have all been underrated since obviously the rest of baseball is wrong now.

Appel is kind of on Klentak too. He traded for him. And Alfaro who you continue to trash actually helped deliver Realmuto so it actually does not matter how he turns out unless you are saying the Realmuto trade was a mistake.

It really does not matter that much how the talent from 2016 turns out. They were highly thought of and we have not made the most of those assets. I am not even sure what your list means if it does not also include guys like Crawford and Sanchez and other prospects we have traded.

Take the blinders off. Klentak is responsible for some of what has happened.

[Austinfan]

It's the internet, I can have it any way but up.

And you missed the point, the system was fundamentally rotten, once the players who had been obtained in trade (who were in A+ and AA ball in 2015) graduated, there was nothing behind them.

[andyb]

I did not miss the point. The system Klentak inherited was better than average. Only your selective analysis considers it otherwise.