You got that right.
Nola's struggles this year are not that surprising for many of us long time Phillie phollowers. The list of hurlers who struggled the year after pitching arguably their most arduous seasons one year previously is a fairly long one.
My first experience with this was young Ray Culp in 1964. Rookie of the Year in 1963, Culp labored most of the '64 season and was a shell of himself all year, one of a myriad of reasons the Phils collapsed that year.
In 1972 Steve Carlton had what I still think was the greatest year I have ever witnessed in a hurler, winning 27 games on a team that won 59. The following season? Carlton was the 4th best starter on a team that might well have won the NL East with a typical Carlton season. losing 20 games.
Most of us recall the terrible 2009 season that Cole Hamels had, against possibly costing the team another WS victory. His 2008 year was brilliant but taxing and he labored all of the '09 season as a consequence.
There are others and if I was so inclined I could probably name them but the point is that history should well have prepared the Phils for this likelihood. My guess is that he will struggle all season, with varying degrees of outstanding games with more than his share of difficult ones.
I am among those who felt the Phils showed way too much faith in their 5 man rotation, anyone of them of whom seemed to have at least one big question mark following his name...Nola for reasons I just chronicled, Arrieta because of his advancing age, Pivetta and Eflin because of their terrible Septembers and Velasquez simply because he is Velasquez.
This is a very talented Phillie team but their pitching issues are likely to become the teams Achillies Heel.
This team has the look of one that is going to have to win by outslugging everyone due to what is probably a very pedestrian pitching staff, though the staff will have its moments like Efflin's first two starts and the bullpen on Sunday.
Hamels 2009 is definitely what comes to mind, but I would look at it another way. He ended up as a .500 pitcher who was no better or worse than Moyer or Blanton and the team still won 93 games and made enough moves to get to the World Series, where Hamels only made (and lost) 1 start (compared to two by Pedro and 1 by Blanton - the pivotal Game 4 where Lidge lost it on that Damon play). Obviously, if he's 2008 Hamels he and Lee might have won four games between them, but that ship had already sailed (and Phillies won Games 1 and 5 behind him in the NLCS).
Getting another Cliff Lee (or even another Pedro) is easier said than done but they were always going to have to get another pitcher regardless. A merely average Nola just puts a lot more pressure on Arrieta, and on the two of the three young guys to actually get locked in. Of course if he is hurt or looks more like Brett Myers in 2008 than Cole Hamels in 2009, you call Keuchel. (Also Gio's opt-out is Saturday but I'm sure they'd give Eickhoff a look before that.)
Need a long man after 2 extra inning games. And the continual need to rotate guys with options makes this move acceptable. Of course Eickhoff does not have much experience in relief, but I imagine he could go 2 today if needed.
The strategy makes sense and we could see De Los Santos next too. Otherwise it would just be Ramos or Pazos or Rios. Either way, without Robertson (and Hunter) the pressue is on Neris, Neshek, Rodriguez and Morgan for the higher-leverage spots.
Also: day game tomorrow.
As long as they choose to keep Nicasio and Alvarez (and any other pitcher without options), the reality is that we only have a couple of spots to rotate pitchers with options through. Since we can rotate more than 2 pitchers into these spots, the 10-days-in-the-minors limits don't hurt them that much as Anderson, Eickhoff, De Los Santos, Ramos, and Arano are pretty even talent-wise and interchangeable if the purpose of these moves is to make sure the bullpen has a fresh arm available whenever they have a stretch where they are collectively overused (like the last 2 games).
Did Hoskins hurt himself on that slide into second? Might explain the rest against a LHP. Which makes the Altherr move understandable also as they probably have been trying to get him a start. Would not be shocked if Williams played for Cutch in the day game tomorrow against Wheeler, a RHP.
Certainly seems possible he's banged up, plus he had a rough night last night. But also a novel way to get Kingery a start.
Hoskins probably got bruised from the play and second base last night. He lay on the ground for a while and the trainers came out. So an off day probably makes some sense.
Certainly are giving Altherr every opportunity to try and prove he belongs on the squad when Quinn is activated. Looks like that question maybe answering itself.
It will be interesting to track Segura's injury. I know they call it a mild hamstring, but any hamstring injury needs rest. Would they consider bringing Quinn up for Segura for 10 days and go light on infield backups? I am sure they don't want to do that. And Quinn has not played much if any infield this year. I guess they could designate Altherr and bring up both Quinn and one of Gosselin/Romine if they needed to.
I'm guessing Walding gets a recall--I believe he's on the 40. Still we really have no back-up middle infielders (Hererra?).
Gamboa, Guzman and Brito are bringing into question sizeable bonuses for scrawny LA infielders.
Maybe we should just sign LA pitchers and buy starting players?
From Matt Gelb:
Look for a further move - Walding? Quinn? Guessing the Segura hamstring thing may require the IL.
UPDATE: And the next shoe drops:
