2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[xogfog]

That sucks. Really wanted Kimbrel. been a big fan of his. Cubs just made themselves a lot better. Maybe the Phils can trade for a closer. Big thing now is getting healthy and getting Robertson, Hunter and Neshek back. Hopefully Dominguez is not hurt bad.

[andyb]

Well, Velasquez was good today. Maybe he can be a major piece of the back of the bullpen

[Lucky_Beagle]

.....Phils can trade for a closer. Big thing now is getting healthy and getting Robertson, Hunter and Neshek back. Hopefully Dominguez is not hurt bad.

Do they really need a closer? What's wrong with Neris.

[zambonir]

Indeed, they just need an arm. It's mostly happenstance that Neris is closing, because Robertson's been gone and Seranthony hasn't been great. It's still meant to be a committee (Morgan and Neshek have closed too I believe).

Probably Kimbrel signed a three-year deal. I can't really quibble with the fact that the Phillies choose not to respond to injuries to three well-paid over-30 relievers by making a long-term commitment to another one. On the flip side, it's only money, whereas a trade will cost talent.

[LoneStarPhan]

I just have a feeling that had the Phillies signed Kimbrel, we would end up disappointed. What we need is to find the Kimbrel of six years ago. The pitcher who will have the success in the next six years that Kimbrel has had in the last six years. Of course, knowing who that is going to be might not be easy.

[xogfog]

What is wrong with Neris? If the Phillies make the playoffs, it is likely that the other playoff teams will have patient hitters that will lay off his splitter and feast on his fastball. I'd prefer a closer with a proven postseason resume, which is why I wanted Kimbrel, who I'm not as down on as others on this board. I hope I'm wrong and Neris is the closer that can flourish in the high pressures of the postseason.

[zambonir]

Whenever I think of a closer with a proven postseason resume I also think of them losing. Lidge, Broxton, Jansen, Giles (though I guess he collapsed before he could even have a postseason resume). Oh, and Kimbrel! And the best way to become a closer with a proven postseason resume is to pitch in the postseason. It's unfortunate that Seranthony, even more than Neris, doesn't look like the guy.

He's getting three years, $45 million. Yeah, he could help this year, maybe he wouldn't even have any issues at all, but I don't mind avoiding that commitment. There will be options this deadline and also options next year when Hunter and Neshek (presumably) and Nicasio are off the books.

[LoneStarPhan]

The point to consider is that to be a top team, the bullpen has to have at least five strong relievers with the way teams depend on the bullpen today. Neris is one. Dominguez is another. Morgan was doing very well before hitting the IL. Robertson was expected to be another. Hunter and/or Neshek were expected to be there as well. Arano would have been in this group too if he could have matched his performance of last season.

The other spots in the bullpen would go to pitchers such as Nicasio, Alvarez, Ramos, Rios, or Davis.

Going into spring training, it looked like they had the bullpen well covered. Nobody would expect to have six relievers on the IL at the same time and now perhaps a seventh if Dominguez needs some time to recover. The Phillies have almost a full bullpen disabled.

[Austinfan]

Neris is a closer, I can't think of any other closer with a better success ratio since last year's Allstar break.
And he's learning to throw the splitter at the knees for strikes, not just bury it.

SD can't pitch two days in a row, not blaming Kapler, not a lot of viable options right now.
Hunter and Morgan should be back soon, then Robertson at least by the Allstar break.

Neris, Hunter, Morgan, Velasquez, SD could be a pretty solid group.
That allows Alvarez and Nicasio to be your LR guys, and a revolving cast eating innings (Davis, Rios, Hammer, Garcia).

After the allstar break, this could be a deep bullpen.

[zambonir]

It could be. Or it might not be. No telling when the injured guys will come back or how well they will pitch. The downtime might be a plus for some of them though (including Seranthony). Developing Velasquez would be big.

[Lawman]

The point to consider is that to be a top team, the bullpen has to have at least five strong relievers with the way teams depend on the bullpen today.

That's the crux of it. Modern day baseball, for better or for worse, is heavily bullpen reliant. Starters are expected to go 6 innings, and then teams better have good bullpens to be able to pitch a minimum of 3 innings nightly. Look at the NYY and how they spent their money - their SP are nothing special, but they shored up their bullpen - Britton, Ottavio, Chapman.

[Patchmk88]

Keuchel to the Braves. Didn’t really care if we got him but didn’t want the Braves to get him.

Looks like a 20 million annual salary - prorated to about 13 million for the rest of the year.

[bkox]

Phillies remove Odubel Herrera banners at Citizens Bank Park

[teabag259]

My guess is that the brass was looking for some way to rid themselves of Odubel. And when he provided it to them they jumped.

[phillychuck]

My guess is that good management never looks for a way to "rid themselves of" an asset. I do agree that he was frustrating them with his diminished performance, and that the incident in AC would have been treated differently if he had a .900 OPS at the time, but in no way were they looking to "dump" him. Trade him? Maybe. But they could have released him at any time if they were looking to get rid of him.

[zambonir]

Well, we'll find out what he's worth soon enough.

And we may find out what Franco's worth before that. Obviously, unlike Franco, an Odubel who wasn't arrested still would have had a place on the bench, but wouldn't have had much trade value in-season (off-season, sure, throw in some money, find a team that can live with the ups and downs and hope there are some ups left).

Franco, of course, can just be non-tendered if he isn't traded.

With Osuna and Chapman, teams couldn't trade for a guy accused of domestic violence at the deadline fast enough, but that's probably not the case here. I still don't really see the Phillies releasing him, even with this symbolic gesture.

[Philsmania]

Perhaps we shouldn't read to much into this. Public relations-wise, Herrera is toxic. Even before the AC incident, he was probably the most unpopular guy on the team (if social media is any indication). Whether he's on the team or not, he's not a guy you want to promote.

[andyb]

Cot's adjusted their numbers after the Bruce trade and it changed a bit more than I thought. Down to $13.5 million available under the luxury tax line.

Google Sheets

Now their numbers are likely not perfect, but I also noticed Sean Rodriguez has a $1.5 million deal and Gosselin is at $1 million. Every time we add someone to the 40-man roster (like Haseley) and call them up while moving someone to the 60-Day DL does take away a few hundred thousand of cap room when those players are on the ML roster.

[nycphils]

I wonder if they could get someone like the O’s to take on Odubel’s contract for nothing essentially - at this point, if they want him gone I’d rather just get the tax line room ($6.1M AAV).

[tom81]

The 1st $20 million over the line is only taxed at 20% for 1st time over the threshold. I think Middleton wouldn’t blink going $20 million over if it increased the chances of getting his *#+%$&@ trophy back .