2019 Phillies Season Discussion

bkeich 2019-04-08 17:16:17 UTC #41

This to me is a classic case of small sample size and someone trying to make a conclusion or suggestion on it. Hernandez has reached base in 8 of 32 plate appearances. If it was 11 of 32 (.344 OBP) than he would be off to a pretty good start. So a few extra balls fall or he takes a ball 4 somewhere that he didnt. 32 plate appearances is nothing, trust me there will be times this year that Harper reaches base in 3 out of 32 (less than 0.100 OBP), does that mean the signing was a mistake?

Talk to me around 150 - 200 PAs, when 1 good game cant change the conclusion.

zambonir 2019-04-08 17:37:45 UTC #42

Well, I think that's true, but the sample size also includes last year (that he was injured or what his overall hitting profile was isn't simple either, of course). And really it's just time to get Kingery in a game, so they made a story out of it. But the reality also is that they are not going to sit Franco or Segura. And that last year Hernandez barely ever got a day off, let alone this early in the season.

The other difference is nobody thinks Harper is going to lose his job to Williams whereas the clock is ticking on Cesar's Phillies career regardless.

bkeich 2019-04-08 17:53:47 UTC #43

I agree that it is time to get Kingery in a game. Funny how Kapler has gone from a guy who seemed to throw names in a hat every day for who starts and where they hit to "these are my 8 guys and I am going to win or lose with them".

Hernandez was not good last year in the 2nd half, he is off to a slow but not terrible start. That said, I wouldnt really say that Kingery is "pushing him" based on his performance last year, which was atrocious by any measure. Kingery needs to get to 2-3 starts a week giving rest to guys, he can be our supersub and should be, they just need to start using him. that way.

The start of the season is always odd like this, guys are 100% rested and you want to get them going, there are usually extra, odd days off in the schedule that players really dont need yet. First weeks stats always look weird, I still think Kingery, if healthy, will get 300+ PAs this year, he needs them and the Phils need him to get them.

zambonir 2019-04-08 17:57:25 UTC #44

Funny how talent dictates managing!

bkeich 2019-04-08 18:04:50 UTC #45

Must really be a nice feeling for Kapler to be honest. To have a clear cut, possible All Star added at 4 positions in one offseason and a clear #1, #2, #3 and #5 hitter must really be nice for the manager.

Last year was all "who should be the starter at xxx" as we had few clear starters. This year it is pretty clear who the better player is everywhere.

andyb 2019-04-08 19:09:33 UTC #46

It will be interesting to check in a few months to see if he is still doing this. Workload with Realmuto could be an issue, but I also wonder if anyone on the bench will be any good if they typically get a start every 2 weeks.

zambonir 2019-04-08 19:20:54 UTC #47

It may or may not take care of itself with injuries, slumps, interleague games, make-up doubleheaders. Knapp will still get 35-40 starts certainly, question is will he get 50. Kingery and Williams should still be able to start once a week, just not at the same position. Quinn will get his looks if he can stay on the roster.

It's been an unusual two weeks with the off-days. After Thursday they won't have one until the 29th.

zambonir 2019-04-08 19:24:31 UTC #48

Kingery is starting tonight, btw. Batting 7th.

I wonder if Altherr will somehow get one start before they have to make a move.

andyb 2019-04-08 20:33:30 UTC #49

Amazingly it is only Kingery's 3rd start ever at 2B in the majors. I really wish they had given him more looks there last year so we would know more about his defense there.

I do think Kingery will get 20-30 starts outside of injury. Once a week for somebody in the infield. Less sure any OF will get regular starts unless Herrera falters. Quinn might double switch in games regularly, but right now to play Williams you sit a corner OF that is better than he is. I imagine he'll get 2 starts in every DH series (with maybe the 3rd going to Realmuto). But it is still not a whole lot of playing time.

zambonir 2019-04-08 21:18:46 UTC #50

You can find a few starts for Williams over McCutchen based on pitching match-up but never for Harper. I figure Herrera will get more off days, assuming Quinn is actually around to play.

I feel like there is good chance neither Williams nor Quinn are on the post-season bench (Quinn hurt, Williams traded at deadline, they'll have added a veteran bench bat. And a back-up CF if Quinn's out.)

andyb 2019-04-09 17:01:09 UTC #51

Nice breakdown of Velasquez last night and how he worked with Realmuto. A veteran catcher that he trusts may be exactly what he needs to succeed instead of trying to think too much out there. He has the best moving fastball on the team coupled with 2 different breaking pitches that could be plus with better location. There is a lot there to work with and enough success in the past that it is a project worth investing in.

Austinfan 2019-04-09 19:58:02 UTC #52

I'm still in the "show me" phase with Velasquez, there's a number of issues that so far he hasn't really progressed, and while he settled down, Velasquez has a history of one or two "wow" starts followed by a bunch of bleech. He'll be 27 in June, it's past potential and time for performance - if we have to watch an electric but erratic young SP, at some point if he doesn't produce it's time to promote De Los Santos. De Los Santos is 23, has a FB, changeup and curve (slider is under construction).

Velasquez is a maximum effort thrower and that hurts his command.
While his four seamer has more movement that the other young SPs, unlike Eflin, he hasn't developed a 2 seamer.
His breaking balls and changeup are erratic. His slider has promise, the other pitches? If he doesn't develop another pitch he has a future as a FB/slider RP.

zambonir 2019-04-09 20:10:58 UTC #53

I'm in the "show me" phase with all three young starters. The perception is that Velasquez has had more chances to succeed and hasn't, but not dramatically so - only 100, 125 more career IPs than Eflin or Pivetta. Patience, right?

andyb 2019-04-09 20:36:07 UTC #54

I probably lean a little to Pivetta if I had to pick one of the three to be the best long term, but it is still close. Eflin still probably will need to prove he can keep his K rate up in the long run which is directly related to his secondary pitches. Velasquez has less command but more stuff. Pivetta is a bit in between.

No reason to pick between them now. Lots of reasons to start all three regularly at least for the next few months as long as the team is playing well and near the top of the division.

I also think we need to figure out how to get our starters into the 6th and 7th inning more often. Like last year, long term accumulated bullpen usage is a problem to watch out for.

Cakes 2019-04-09 20:50:41 UTC #55

All three young guys should have some leash again this year. De Los Santos did not showcase a major threat to anyone last season when he got his chance. His short arm style bothers me a lot too. This guy is an elbow injury waiting to happen. The good thing is that the offense and defense should give the existing trio of 3-4-5 more room for error and to pitch through the doldrums when they come again this season. Vince is probably most on the bubble due to his inability to effectively pitch to contact. He is to 3-2 counts what Kingery is to two strike counts.

The guy I've turned the page on is Eickhoff. I think it's more likely that the team goes in on Keuchel if someone falters than to dip into the minors. Vince or Pivetta could easily supplant someone in the pen if they become inefficient with pitch counts.

nycphils 2019-04-09 21:11:26 UTC #56

Given how much offense we appear to have (SSS, I know), absolutely let them start regularly. If we finish in the top two or three in the NL in runs scored, our pitching could easily be enough to win it all - remember the ‘08 Phillies had Hamels, but also Blanton, Moyer, Myers (a 4.55 ERA/96 ERA+ for the season) and the fabulous Kendrick and Eaton for a combined 32 starts.

Austinfan 2019-04-09 22:34:48 UTC #57

I think Eflin is the most advanced of the three, he added a good 2 seamer to his repertoire and has a nice changeup.
Pivetta has the most hittable FB, he's almost strictly 4 seamer, and while he has a good curve, his change is meh.
Velasquez has the best 4 seamer (good late break) but no 2 seamer, a potential plus slider but another with a meh change.

Better defense will help them this year, but I think they're keeping a close watch on the Allentown rotation.
De Los Santos throws just as hard, we'll see if the new PC made any adjustments.
Irvin has the junk, can he sustain 91+ velocity? Is Romero ready? Anderson struggled his first couple starts after a strong spring, coming back to earth or bad weather? Suarez and Eickhoff should be in the mix.
Only need one or two out of six to get hot and take the next step.

el-pietro 2019-04-10 16:11:41 UTC #58

Roman Quinn being moved to LHV to continue his rehab. Imagine hes only a few days away from the big league team. What happens when he comes up do we think? Altherr waived? They could send WIlliams down right?

fish 2019-04-10 16:57:33 UTC #59

Altherr stopped looking like a big-leaguer ever since Matt Stairs left town. I'd cut ties and wish him he best. If he's going to become anything again, he needs regular playing time and he's not going to get that here.

andyb 2019-04-10 17:22:43 UTC #60

Most likely outcome is an Altherr trade for a low-level prospect. Not someone in a top 30. Think college reliever with good low minors stats against younger competition.