2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I think he'll take a one-year deal. Maybe with an option. Maybe he can do better after the deadline. I think I'd rather give up talent for a different pitcher in July. My guess is they look for controllable, not Bumgarner or Hamels. But you would have to give up the talent, whereas Keuchel is only pro-rated money.

[andyb]

Keuchel is an older, more experienced version of Irvin. Who struggled with ML hitters at age 24 and 25.
FB 89, Cutter 86, Slider 79, CH 80 MPH.
Slider and change fell off last year so could be bounceback room.

He'd be an innings eater, but not worth more than a one year deal.

Why even bring up the Irvin comparison? It is not like Keuchel doesn't have a track record of success. He is the rare guy with his stuff that has had success and comparing him to someone like Keuchel is meaningless.

Would he take a 1-year overpaid deal? Maybe to reestablish his value and play for a winner. Of course that would require overpaying him ($25 million plus pro-rated, so maybe $15 million total at a minimum. Would you offer that?

Show me a 27-year-old starter who is an improvement on what we have and would not cost major prospects and I am all in. That unicorn does not exist though. What would you do to improve the team?

[zambonir]

Unless a bidding war erupts - which is certainly possible - I think Keuchel would take a one-year deal. He may also turn down lowball multi-year deals, even with the extra security. Who knows how they really feel about the thought of hitting the open market again.

I don't know that you have to overpay him though. Give him the QO money and a signing bonus to make up for some of the lost salary. You don't have to fully compensate him for the two months he didn't pitch.

I think if the Phillies really truly wanted either player they'd have gotten one of the in the first place though. That's not about money or long-term deals or age curves per se, I think it's just the teams specific assessment of the player. Just like their assessment was that they'd rather give up a package for Realmuto than get Grandal or Ramos for free. They have plenty of pitching depth from which to trade for pitching upgrades, especially if the upgrades are controllable. They also have Williams. And while this still wouldn't be the year to do it because their value isn't high enough (and you can't trade Haseley) they also have the Reading OF.

[Austinfan]

Actually, right now I wouldn't do squat.
I'd wait and see how the young RPs look, how Quinn looks, how the SPs at LHV progress.
Because we're in 1st place and it's the end of May,
A lot can change between now and July 31.

[julio]

From the mlb.com transactions page:

5/27:
Philadelphia Phillies optioned RHP Enyel De Los Santos to Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

[zambonir]

I mean, I think that's basically correct, though even if Roman Quinn hit .400 between June 15 (which is probably optimistic) and July 15 I wouldn't be making any decisions based on him being on a September line-up card.

Beyond that, it's an arbitrage play. If Keuchel or Kimbrel are available at a price you like, for which you also get two months of production and don't have to give anything up, that has considerable value, and the area of need is pretty clear. Yes, they are in first place but also don't look likely to separate themselves from the Braves or be an NLCS favorite.

Wait-and-see also has value - you don't spend money, and if someone unexpected hits or an injured guy comes back strong, you haven't spent anything at all. If those things don't happen, you just end up paying more to fix it.

I think the Phillies will probably pay the price to get guys they like at the deadline, and they'll either be controllable or reasonably cheap if not. Of course there are also salary dump type situations. You sign Keuchel now you've got no chance of getting Greinke. Not saying they should, figuring out that contract would be rough, but, optionality.

[andyb]

The Phillies are now $17.8 million under the luxury tax threshold (see link, assume it has been updated for latest moves though not 100% sure about any small Altherr savings):

Google Sheets

One would hope that they use this payroll room before they start trading top prospects. Remember it is all pro-rated, so now it would be adding $25 million in yearly salary. After the All Star break and close to the deadline it is more like $40 million in salary.

That is a bit of a reason why a 1-year deal for Keuchel or Kimbrel would be ideal. We actually can fit Grienke under our luxury tax line, but assume we would have to pick up 75% of that contract in forthcoming years.

The team is playing fairly well, but it really does not seem to have the back end of the bullpen to compete in October. Part of that is the injuries, but maybe assuming vintage Robertson is coming back is the wrong thing to do. With the starters they clearly have a month to see if internal options work. We could also do a mini Tampa with Nola, Arrieta, and Eflin going every 5 days and mixing and matching the rest. I assume the powers that be would rather add a veteran starter than do that however.

[julio]

With the optioning out of De Los Santos and Herrera now on the Restricted List, the Phils active roster stands at 23. We know that Nick Pivetta is expected to be activated prior to tonight's game. We don't know yet how the last spot will be filled - Nick Williams is the obvious choice... but the Ironpigs have a DH starting at 4:05 PM in Pawtucket. Did they bus up there yesterday - or this morning? In other words, was Williams on a bus somewhere in New England when all this hit the fan this morning?

[phillychuck]

Where is Reading today? Do we have a 40-man slot for Moniak or Haseley?

[julio]

Where is Reading today? Do we have a 40-man slot for Moniak or Haseley?

We sure do have a 40-man slot, as of the moment Herrera went to the Restricted List.

However, neither Haseley nor Moniak needs to go on the 40-man this winter, so it could create a longer-term problem if they were added now. Randolph will be Rule 5-eligible this winter - would it make sense to call him up?

[David_Criss]

It could also be Adams or Robinson. They want Williams to get regular at bats. For the immediate time being I can see it being one of those two and Kingery being the full time cfer at least in the short term. And then replacing with Quinn when he is healthy.

Options are limited. 1 move McCutcheon over and Williams is everyday LF. Or 2. Let Kingery be the everyday CF and let Williams play everyday at AAA and callup a backup outfielder ie Robinson or Adams.

Altherr, Quinn and Cozens have to be kicking themselves for missing this opportunity.

[julio]

OK, we have an announcement of roster moves:

Philadelphia Phillies (Phillies)

De Los Santos optioned to AAA (last night)
Pivetta recalled
Williams recalled.

Lauber also reports that Roman Quinn is getting closer:

Scott Lauber (ScottLauber)

[zambonir]

They could call up Walding. Rodriguez and McCutchen still have CF covered depth-wise. But it's gotta be Williams. Putting Cutch back in CF is not something they want to do under normal circumstances but they did it when Herrera was injured and they'll surely do it now. Doesn't have to be every game, Williams could get 2-3 starts a week and that would be 2-3 starts more than he was getting before.

Altherr already had the opportunity, that's why he's not here anymore.

(Ah, posted as the news broke I guess.)

[julio]

(Ah, posted as the news broke I guess.)

Yep. It just hit Twitter.

[julio]

Betcha it's not going to take Nick Williams three days to report!

[andyb]

Though getting him to Philly will be a bit of a challenge if he was up in Pawtucket last night. Can't imagine they would have gone up this morning if they had a DH to play.

[julio]

Though getting him to Philly will be a bit of a challenge if he was up in Pawtucket last night. Can't imagine they would have gone up this morning if they had a DH to play.

Be that as it may - as of now, the beat writers are reporting Williams in tonight's lineup in LF, with Cutch in CF and Kingery at 3B:

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyNBCS)

I'm guessing the delay in announcing the moves, and the lineup, was driven by waiting to see if Williams could actually get to South Philly by 7:05.

[zambonir]

Betcha it's not going to take Nick Williams three days to report!

Well, the good news is he didn't miss his fiancee's graduation.

[Lawman]

Interesting lineup. From a defensive perspective, I think I'd rather play Kingery in CF and Franco at 3B then Williams in LF, McCutchen in CF, and Kingery at 3B.

[julio]

Scott Lauber (ScottLauber)

Scott Lauber (ScottLauber)