2019 Phillies Season Discussion

tom81 2019-05-26 03:15:58 UTC #421

And did you notice how the Braves lost today? Lots of teams are struggling at times with their relief pitchers.

Austinfan 2019-05-26 03:31:53 UTC #422

Hitters have adjusted to 95 MPH FBs, ironically, the shift to hard throwers out of the pen forced this to happen (weeded out the slow bats), which has caused hard throwing starters to run up pitch counts, and force teams to overuse their hard throwing RPs, which then leads to arm injuries and replacement level pitchers.

Hammer will be interesting, his career took over when he refined his slider and added a changeup.
I think we're going to see more 3 pitch RPs, Morgan took a step up when he added a changeup.

zambonir 2019-05-26 08:49:57 UTC #423

I don't think so. VV likely shows up the ballpark today knowing whether or not he might have to pitch, and whether or not he's starting in two days. If Eflin doesn't go deep it's probaby not a close game and you've still got De Los Santos.

It's very enticing to convert Velasquez but what if Pivetta still isn't good? Eickhoff is still a big question mark too. Bottom line is Velasquez is still one of the five best starters, and currently the 4th-best. Strictly by small-sample ERA and WHIP he's actually #2. Just can't see pulling a guy with a 3.62 ERA in favor of a guy with an 8.35 ERA who hasn't necessarily shown he's back in his time at AAA. The bullpen injury woes or or this board's intense focus on every blown lead doesn't change the fact that starters matter more.

Now, if they want to announce that Pivetta is going to start Tuesday but only go twice through the order, with Velasquez likely to take over, bring on the New Age.

tom81 2019-05-26 13:14:58 UTC #424

Very good points Zambonir. I agree with your evaluation of Valesquez’s worth as a starter but there are so many factors that go into this decision. One that has to be high is Valesquez’s health. He is coming off a forearm strain and has missed time in the past with injuries. His fastball probably puts less stress on him than his other pitches. It might be best for his health to pitch a couple a times a week in the pen where he can do well with mostly fastballs. Save his bullets for the postseason.

andyb 2019-05-26 13:26:26 UTC #425

Pivetta is listed as the Tuesday starter on ESPN's schedule. Nola is also a possibility to move up from Wednesday to Tuesday because he would still have 4 days rest.

Velazquez has definitely had some trouble the third time through the order this year (only 20 PA so extreme SSS), but his career splits also suggest twice through the order is best for him. Now I think this is colored by him getting to 80-90 pitches by the time he gets to the top of the order the third time and other pitchers closer to 60.

It is a tricky question. As Zambonir noted, VV is our 4th best starter at the moment. Eickhoff has not shown this over an extended period of time since he got injured and his last outing showed that even pitch counts might not be much of an advantage because he has to nibble with his stuff (i.e. the 90 mph fastball will get hit). Pivetta is also worth salvaging because of his stuff.

The dilemma for the Phillies is that VV and Pivetta might be better in 120 innings than 180 innings. It is to the team's benefit to teach them how to pitch 180 innings. Two tandem starters that throw fewer innings just seems a recipe for disaster in today's overused bullpens. Kapler will need to learn to resist those short 1 and 2 batter outings from the back end because all that usage adds up and would have to account for more innings with tandem starters.

julio 2019-05-26 13:34:48 UTC #426

Pivetta is also listed as today's starter for the Ironpigs, both on the MiLB scoreboard and in Tom Housenick's summary of yesterday's game at the Morning Call. I guess we'll find out later today - if he's going to start for the Phils on Tuesday, he'll have to be scratched for tonight.

andyb 2019-05-26 13:40:46 UTC #427

They could also tandem VV with De Los Santos if they wanted a 4-inning limit on VV. Assuming De Los Santos is still with the team (look away for a couple of days and it is hard to remember who is still up).

julio 2019-05-26 13:41:56 UTC #428

You got that right!

Velazquez has definitely had some trouble the third time through the order this year (only 20 PA so extreme SSS), but his career splits also suggest twice through the order is best for him. Now I think this is colored by him getting to 80-90 pitches by the time he gets to the top of the order the third time and other pitchers closer to 60.

The dilemma for the Phillies is that VV and Pivetta might be better in 120 innings than 180 innings. It is to the team's benefit to teach them how to pitch 180 innings.

The challenge seems to be teaching them (convincing them?) to focus less on strikeouts, more on challenging hitters, relying on their defense. I don't know if that's achievable. VV, in particular, seems to routinely crank out 20-pitch innings, and starting pitchers simply can't do that very much and be effective... which is another reason to think of him as a reliever, because a short man cranking it up for 20 pitches in one inning can be effective (for one inning, or maybe even two).

Austinfan 2019-05-26 15:08:35 UTC #429

Eickhoff's problem isn't his FB velo (which touches 91-92 at times), but like all starters, his location.

95 MPH FBs routinely get lite up these days, so unless Velasquez can throw 97-99 on a regular basis, it's the movement and location, not the velocity, of his FB, that makes the difference.
Same for Eickhoff, when his cutter is on he's hard to hit.
Irvin got hit around his last start not b/c of his 88-89 FB, but too many pitches "dead red," waist high down the center of the plate. Pivetta had the same problem when he threw 95 MPH FBs dead red.

The real problem with a lot of the Phillies pitchers, and this includes Nola, is when they start nibbling and get squeezed by an ump, at times you have to chuck it up there and accept a couple base empty HRs rather than run up counts and hit 100 pitches by the 5th inning.

andyb 2019-05-26 15:17:52 UTC #430

You keep saying this. But it is simply not true. Statcast versus various pitch speeds:

• Vs. 92 mph: .283/.364/.475
• Vs. 95 mph: .259/.342/.421
• Vs. 98 mph: .223/.310/.329
• Vs. 101 mph: .198/.257/.214

Nobody disputes that any pitcher needs more than velocity to succeed. But none of that means that velocity is not also hugely important. Eickhoff might succeed, but it is a narrow path with less room for error. And he has started to have more trouble against better teams in warmer weather now. Which is to be expected for a pitcher with his more limited stuff.

Irvin got hit around not because his pitches were "dead red", but because like most pitchers with modest stuff he had to nibble around the strike zone. More film on him got around the league and hitters were prepared for that approach. That is when they began to tee off on him.

Velocity matters. It is why the Phillies need to give Pivetta and Velasquez every chance to succeed in roles where they pitch as many innings as possible (60 innings would be a waste for guys who have shown the ability to throw more). I am not sure if the answer is 100 or 120 or 150 or 180 innings. Or a trade for another arm or even Keuchel.

Austinfan 2019-05-26 15:43:14 UTC #431

The difference between 92 and 95 is pretty marginal, if you look at those numbers, velo only really matters now when it's "extreme" 97+ or so - and guys throwing that hard are a ticket to the IR. This is one reason bullpens are struggling, I'll bet if you can find those numbers from 5-10 years ago the split between 92 and 95 is much larger. Right now the split is small enough that one good secondary pitch more than makes up for a few less MPH in velo.

Irvin had success when he didn't nibble, when he attacked the K zone with 3 pitches.

Pitchers get in trouble when they nibble b/c they fall behind in counts, and there's a huge difference in hitter success when they're up 2-0 v 1-1 or 0-2. We've seen this with Arrieta all year, and he throws a lot harder than Eickhoff or Irvin.

allentown 2019-05-26 16:07:26 UTC #432

But pitchers nibble when they don't have confidence in their stuff/control during a particular outing. Perhaps the command isn't quite up to normal or the FB is 1-2 mph short that day, or they know the breaking pitches lack their typical bite. They prefer to risk the pitch being a ball than to throw normally and risk a fat pitch without much movement in the hitter's preferred hitting zone. If they are confident their pitch will not be in that danger zone and that it will have normal movement for them, then they don't nibble. It's a lot like over-riding the catcher's pitch call repeatedly. The catcher wants to establish or at least show a particular pitch, while the pitcher has zero confidence that day. A pitcher with less stuff, velocity and movement, has less margin for error and is more likely to fear a batter and nibble.

When Irvin felt the need to nibble, he likely didn't have 3 pitches he felt confident about.

phillychuck 2019-05-26 16:29:38 UTC #433

I don't know if that's marginal...92 is an .840 OOPS, and 95 is .763. That the difference between a 5.6-ish ERA and an ERA in the mid 4's.

Austinfan 2019-05-26 16:55:25 UTC #434

But it's not that large that one plus secondary pitch v an average secondary pitch wouldn't make up the gap.
Pitchers with 95+ velocity, like high draft picks, get numerous chances to make it work.

Pitchers who throw 90-91 and make it to the Show are a "self-selected" group, either they have good command and secondary pitches or they're soon gone, never to be heard from again (Tyler Cloyd).

Ten years ago, you could pump 95 MPH FBs all day and hitters would flail at them (how many starters averaged 94-95 a decade ago v now?), and RPs throwing hard just dominated. So command didn't matter as much.

The balance is shifting back toward "pitchers", sure a pitcher with 95 MPH velocity has a bigger margin for error, but how many guys can throw that hard, locate their pitches and develop a couple dependable secondary pitches (and stay off the IR - high velocity FBs put more stress on the arm). Since there are far more lower velocity pitchers, even if the same % develop command and secondary pitches, there will be more low velocity "pitchers" than high velocity "pitchers."

This creates two divergent paths, high velocity pitchers who struggle with command (because they became dependent on velocity early and aren't comfortable gearing down and using location), and lower velocity pitchers who are good "pitchers" because otherwise they never get out of AA/AAA ball.

andyb 2019-05-26 17:02:42 UTC #435

To frame the discussion a bit, my point on Velasquez and Pivetta was to say that they are probably better starters and pitchers long term than Eickhoff and Irvin based upon their stuff. That does not mean they are useless major league pitchers however. In an ideal world they are ideal or perhaps even better multi-inning relief candidates than Velasquez and Pivetta. In limited exposure their stuff might not play up as much, but their variety of pitches and speeds would. Once around the lineup, 3 innings max, would give hitters one look at a pitcher very different than what preceded them.

For innovation let's always look to Tampa. They have 3 traditional starters and a bunch of mix and match. I present to you the case of Jalen Beeks. His minor league record and stuff are not the worst comparables to Cole Irvin:

12 outings this year. 36.2 IP, 36 H, 12 BB, 37 K, 3-0, 3.19 ERA. Zero starts.

A tandem starter strategy requires lots of long relievers. So if we stick to a 5-man rotation with VV and Pivetta (and frankly any starter could sometimes use a short outing) in it, we probably need 3 or 4 relievers who can go long. So one could have a staff with Eickhoff or Irvin or De Los Santos or Suarez or Anderson all in relief (or 3 at a time, rotating usage with 10-15 day option stints in the minors).

The challenge will be in usage. If we are in a 5-2 game in the 4th or 5th inning, we replace the starter with the tandem even if they are ahead (i.e. in a good start, but we are training them to throw 75 pitches and not 100 - don't push it even if they are doing well). We need to stop having teams of relievers that only pitch when you are behind or ahead. Klentak and Kapler might be the ideal team to implement a "Tampa". I actually that would be more impactful than all the extra shifts they do.

andyb 2019-05-26 17:04:37 UTC #436

The data shows the balance is shifting towards hard throwers. What you define as "pitchers" has always defined the most successful pitchers. The difference today is the mph bar is 3 mph higher than in the past.

Austinfan 2019-05-26 17:09:43 UTC #437

Irvin got to the majors, Kilome is where?
The value of velocity probably peaked five years ago. Now it's flatlined or declined slightly.
That's because the increase in velocity weeded out ML hitters who can't handle velocity.

Now it's shifting toward more of a balance between different attributes.
One of the keys is 3 or more average to above average pitches, especially for starters, but even out of the pen.
Nola didn't become a top pitcher until he developed a plus changeup, and he's struggled this year b/c he's struggled throwing the curve and changeup, not because he lost any velocity.
Eickhoff is fine, adding a cutter was a big step up for him, but if his curve isn't working, he's going to struggle.
Eflin improved when he developed a cutter to go with his improved velocity.

The biggest value of velocity now isn't in FB effectiveness, but the spread between your FB and your secondary pitches - but you still need at least average, and hopefully one plus secondary pitch, to take advantage of that spread.

julio 2019-05-26 17:16:42 UTC #438

Well, a .342 composite OBP against 95-mph fast balls isn't too shabby - for the hitters. The Phils' team OBP, per b-r just now, is .332. That's this season; last year, the team OBP was .314.

Frankly, the Statcast data suggests to me that unless you have an overwhelming fast ball, you'd better rely on off-speed pitches to get outs, because relying on 92-95 mph fastballs isn't going to get it done.

andyb 2019-05-26 17:30:27 UTC #439

Not sure it says anything that strong. It also does not go into any sort of analysis about off-speed pitches being more effective when the pitcher possesses that 95 mph fastball. It is just a fact that a 95 mph fastball is better than a 92 mph fastball (and presumably an 89 mph fastball though that is not in the chart and I would bet that the drop is not as steep when you go from 92 to 89 though likely still there).

This whole discussion is about the Phillies maximizing the innings that Velazquez and Pivetta should pitch because that helps the team. They have more potential than Irvin and Eickhoff simply because they have better stuff. There is no guarantee that they will realize that, so the Phillies need to keep their depth options around AND figure out the best way to maximize them.

julio 2019-05-26 17:34:30 UTC #440

I agree with your general premise here. I guess there's a question whether VV and Pivetta should be learning at the major-league level, given that we're talking about a first-place, "win now" ballclub. OTOH, that's only relevant if the Phils have better options to start in the short run.

With regard to Velasquez, it appears, from today's announcements, that he's going to be pitching in relief for the foreseeable future. That means fewer innings; remains to be seen whether he can learn to be more efficient with his pitches.