2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[andyb]

Robertson went on the IL on 4/15 so he can probably be moved to the 60-day DL since he won't be back before mid-June if the earliest he starts throwing is the 1st week in June.

And I never like seeing Dr. James Andrews' name in an article.

[Patchmk88]

Our veteran relief signings over the past couple of years haven’t worked out the best from a durability standpoint.

[julio]

Our veteran relief signings over the past couple of years haven’t worked out the best from a durability standpoint.

Veteran relief pitcher signings often (I'm tempted to write typically) don't work out particularly well from a durability standpoint. Relief pitchers are fairly systematically overused (e.g., abused) and discarded. It may be delusional to think that a reliever who has somehow survived such usage, and therefore appears to be "durable," really is - as opposed to just being a ticking time bomb.

[Patchmk88]

Right. Which is the exact reason Kimbrel hasn’t been signed with his demands. I am glad we haven’t gone above 2 years with these guys. Just a little disappointed with the amount of salary we have paid to guys that have spent most of their time on the DL.

[LoneStarPhan]

I agree that all this underlines reasons why NOT to sign Kimbrel for anything close to what he evidently wanted, both in dollars and years. While it certainly would be great to have the Kimbrel years we can see in his stats, those years are behind him and while he may be good again, he is unlikely to be as good as he was previously. What I want is for the Phillies to bring in young relief pitchers who can put up those good years in the coming years that Kimbrel has already had.

[VoteForKalas]

Our veteran relief signings over the past couple of years haven’t worked out the best from a durability standpoint.

It not just ours...it is why signing vets can be more risky.

[Austinfan]

And why the best use of draft picks from #13-25 is usually signing college senior SPs who look to uptick in the bullpen and have one solid secondary pitch. Hit on two per draft and you'll save a lot of money building a bullpen. College RPs who are seniors are higher risk b/c the best pitchers are usually SPs, though an exception might be made for closers.

The advantage of college seniors is they're cheap, and you've weeded out most of whom will break down after they've started for 2-3 years in college.

[zambonir]

Just a little disappointed with the amount of salary we have paid to guys that have spent most of their time on the DL.

You know you're signing up for it when you get them though. Same way you need 7 starting pitchers you need twice as many relief arms (because the vets get hurt and the kids are inconsistent).

They overpaid for Hunter and Neshek last year because the team had been so bad. If they get 66% value from both of them that's enough (this assumes Hunter will provide a half-season this year). If Robertson ends up under the knife that would be a real problem. But then what do you do - give in on Kimbrel or just start managing your $ for a deadline add? The salary that stinks is NIcasio's but that was to help move Santana.

Meanwhile we don't have Arano or Ramos either, so you don't even have to be old.

[andyb]

When you use cash to buy players without giving up prospects they all will not work out. But you still have your prospects. It is simply the cost of doing business for a team with resources.

Now that our overall payroll is a bit more we will probably do less of this going forward, unless our internal options do not pan out.

[Austinfan]

As young RPs establish themselves, we can be choosier about which RPs we sign in the future.

I think the contracts are staggered so that $20M or so come off the books each of the next two years, then in three years Arrieta's options kick in and the Phillies have more money they can shed if needed.

[allentown]

And why the best use of draft picks from #13-25 is usually signing college senior SPs who look to uptick in the bullpen and have one solid secondary pitch. Hit on two per draft and you'll save a lot of money building a bullpen.

Absolutely true and a way to save a ton of money. The odds of getting anything other than a middle reliever in these rounds is not at all good, but a decent shot at landing a future MLB reliever.

[zambonir]

I think the contracts are staggered so that $20M or so come off the books each of the next two years, then in three years Arrieta's options kick in and the Phillies have more money they can shed if needed.

For sure, Hunter, Neshek and Nicasio could all be gone next season. And Arrieta is gone after 2020 unless he opts out this year (which is very unlikely). Neshek is the only one of the three relievers with a 2020 option and he's not that expensive (only 5.75 million this year, option is for 7).

I'm sure if they let them all go they will sign another bullpen vet for 2020 though. You always need a mix, and Seranthony and Neris have not emerged as surefire options (plus, what's a surefire option, Ken Giles? Brad Lidge?). Morgan's emergence is nice.

Like Andy said, it's either money or prospects. I suspect there will still be prospects going in July, probably for a younger controllable bullpen arm with some experience, rather than a FA to-be.

Back in '08-'10 we paid $4-5 million for 7th-8th inning guys like Romero and Madson, what Hunter and Neshek make is no worse now (while Robertson is being paid like a closer).

[David_Criss]

I guess the silver lining is that Robertson can be moved to the 60-day to buy more time if they want to keep Gooselin and/or Rodriquez on the 40-man

[andyb]

I guess the silver lining is that Robertson can be moved to the 60-day to buy more time if they want to keep Gooselin and/or Rodriquez on the 40-man

I can't imagine Gosselin or Rodriguez have options, so Robertson would let us have another 40-man slot available when one gets sent down (i.e. outrighted) to AAA. We'll need one for Hunter in a couple of weeks hopefully.

[zambonir]

Well I guess there's no rush to add to add Dohy or Gilbert.

[andyb]

Not sure what to think of this:

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[zambonir]

Is he more prone to oblique injuries from one side or the other?

[andyb]

He was a natural right handed bat before they converted him early in the minors. Almost 200 point career advantage in OPS against LHP so I think this is about losing his confidence in his LH swing (which was praised in the minors).

Just an odd move to me and not good since with his speed you want the LH hitting to work.

[zambonir]

It is kind of odd inasmuch as, it doesn't seem to me that he's been in the majors for any sufficient amount of time to say he was struggling for any other reason than health. But, just not sure how much it matters either. If Quinn can get back on the roster Williams will be the LH guy and Quinn will do more pinchrunning and defensive replacements. Gosselin and Rodriguez are both RHBs so functionally it won't change anything.

But I have a hard time imagining him sticking around in the long run (or the medium run).

[phillychuck]

Keep in mind that I love Quinn, but at this point I have a hard time imagining 3 weeks where he plays and doesn't end up on the IL. "Availability is the most important ability..."