2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I say shocking because this was on Klentak (for not replacing Arano when the bullpen was already short a man) and Kapler for wasting Seranthony on a 1-batter outing knowing he had only 1-inning pitchers and a tired Nicasio behind him.

I'm guessing Klentak didn't know. He pitched on Friday, they probably figured he was a little sore, and at that point they didn't plan on ILing Segura (let alone lose Kingery). It says the Phillies had decided "earlier in the game" that Arano couldn't go. Can't make a roster move at that point. He probably hadn't fessed up about how bad he felt. I still think he's probably not really injured, "inflammation" from a week-old massage is something you ice, maybe take a day or two off. But they couldn't afford to do that (plus it allowed them to get Anderson, and not forcibly IL someone who wasn't even "sore").

So yeah you can say Gabe screwed up, though I don't think you ever manage for the 12th inning (and someday soon you won't have to). But also I don't think we can say it was obvious to let Seranthony bat in a 2-2, game, top of the 7th, man on second base, two outs. Williams hits there and you don't have extras. And obviously if Franco hadn't gotten on Seranthony would have stayed. Double-switch probably not much of an option with Kingery and Segura and Cutch already out, would have meant putting Williams in CF or pulling Harper probably.

And Nicasio still should have won the game. He didn't lose it because he was tired, or even bad. Sounds like Gabe and JT were as much to blame for that fastball, in fact.

[andyb]

You don't use Seranthony in that potential 1-batter situation if you know you have a short pen (1 pitcher short, 1 pitcher injured). You use Neshek. While it is not ideal for Seranthony to go 2 innings, his flexibility to do so on proper rest is a resource you don't waste on an outing that might be for only 1 batter.

Gabe manages for the short term and not the long term. He is better this year. But he is still not really that good at it.

[zambonir]

But Neshek gave them three outs so it seems immaterial. I also don't think Seranthony is an option for true multi-inning work anymore.

Won't disagree Gabe can have tunnel vision, but again, it's situational. 2-2 with a man on second is a high-leverage situation (both for Seranthony to enter the game and for Williams to PH in it) and had Franco not gotten a hit Seranthony still could have pitched, then maybe Morgan is available later too (though we both know he probably gets the lefties there anyway).

The mistake Klentak made was riding it out with one less reliever regardless, or not getting rid of one of the non-optionable guys in March (even though lots of people here hate the big bullpen to begin with). But at that point they obviously figured being a man short was better than swapping Arano for a less effective guy (and then losing Arano for 10 days).

But really you are still talking a hypothetical. Nicasio pitched well enough to win the game. He lost the game. They didn't run out of pitchers. (Had they, I might have just put Pivetta out there and called up a new starter today. But that would have been bad for Pivetta.)

[VoteForKalas]

We need another starter, the pen has been worked hard the whole season and especially this week. They will be dead by June at this pace.

[zambonir]

I agree a rotation upgrade is ultimately going to be more necessary/meaningful than a bullpen upgrade, though I still don't think there's a rush. If you had to spend their $ tomorrow though,
I'd do it on Keuchel or even a Gio flier over Kimbrel (and if you do that then Pivetta may ultimately be relief fortification, as Anderson already is and De Los Santos likely will be).

To me this week was on the offense, injured thought it might be. A rotation that gives you 5-6 innings and allows 4 runs should be enough most nights in 2019 (heck, a classic "quality start" is a 4.50 ERA), even if the pen costs you one every once in a while. With our offense we should (and can) ding other bullpens too.

5-5 in the last 10, 4-5 on the road, turn that last number into 6-6 this series and that's fine. You take two guys out of this line-up though and it ripples, you notice more when the big guys faile and the 6-8 spots in the line-up become holes (especially on a day that Knapp starts, and with Quinn a non-factor for now).

The pressure on the pen would be relieved if they cut Alvarez or Nicasio, I'd have no problem seeing Rios or Ramos or Pazos getting some of those lesser innings, cycling up and down. But one's a lefty and one makes a lot of $ so they may just intend to ride it out, at least until Robertson and Arano are back (Arano will certainly be back soon).

[zambonir]

Guess I'll skip the ESPN team tonight to see how he sounds.

Jimmy Rollins to call tonight's Phillies game, Stephen A. Smith calls himself an...

[andyb]

I think they really need to find a way to put Williams in the starting lineup, even if it is for 3 AB in CF replaced by Quinn in the 5th or 6th inning. We are almost a month in the season and he has a grand total of 1 game where he got a 2nd plate appearance and 4 innings in the field.

He is not a 40-year-old Jim Thome that can only hit. The team needs to manage for 162 games and that means occasionally getting each bench player in a game every couple of weeks. Quinn clearly needed another week or two of minor league at bats (which he can't get now). They should at least try to make the best of these injuries by getting something from their one bench player with some offensive upside.

[zambonir]

Sounds like they'll try Cutch in CF and Williams in LF, maybe tomorrow.

[andyb]

That is probably good. Hard to know which of Williams or Cutch or Harper would be best in CF. Lesser of three mediocre defensive CFs I guess.

There is a DH series coming in May, so Williams will play most of that. I just think the team is offensively challenged now so he needs to play more since he is most useful on offense (and adds another LH power bat against the RHP we are constantly facing).

[zambonir]

Well, Cutch has played a lot of CF, and Harper actively does not want to/admits he isn't good at it. Plus Williams is better off in LF anyway.

It was certainly reasonable to hope Quinn could contribute right away, and to want him in that big OF, but it did not work out.

[David_Criss]

The bench is: Knapp (.235), Williams (.158), Quinn (.095), Altherr (.042) and Walding (strikeouts)
Knowing that Quinn can't be optioned without the risk of losing him, the options are pretty thin. I can't help but wonder if Cozens or Robinson might be called up pretty soon. I know Robinson isn't on the 40-man, but that is easy - Cut Altherr now or cut Nicasio and Altherr and bring up Robinson and Garcia. Just a thought. If you find a spot for Cozens then you have your choice of him or Williams to DH.

[andyb]

I think they'll probably end up cutting Altherr at some point if everyone gets healthy, but focusing on the batting average of the bench players is really the wrong issue. Setting aside catcher (Knapp's issue is defense, not offense but who is better), we really don't have an awful bench. We know what Quinn can do. They just rushed him. We know what Williams can do. We just have not started him in a single game. And either Kingery or Cesar would be perfectly fine as a backup middle infielder.

Shane Robinson, a 34-year-old CF with a career OPS of .580 is not the answer, especially if any 40-man move might cost you a player. We probably should have recalled Romine over Gosselin but at the time we did not know that both Segura and Kingery were hurt. Romine is more of a defensive SS than Gosselin. But that is a 1-week issue.

The bench is fine. Maybe we upgrade catcher at some point. But if we do not trade Cesar we have the best backup in Kingery. And Williams and Quinn are our 2 best OFs. We just need to play Williams a bit because we are a month in the season and he has not started a game and hitters need some chance to actually hit. Since he is reportedly in the lineup tonight that is a good change.

Now on the bullpen, I could be talked into getting rid of both Nicasio and Alvarez. We don't need to do it today, but both need to be better and we might just need to eat the contracts.

[zambonir]

Yes, I think Quinn will be okay, and KIngery, brief as it has been, might be a revelation. But the difference between Kingery and Williams is they have found playing time for Kingery. My guess is still that Williams will be included in a July trade, and they will bring in a more experienced 4th OF. Professional pinch-hitters are few and far between, it's a tough job, but someone who can more easily play that Matt Stairs-type role is probably in order.

With so little playing time available Cozens or Walding really could just as easily be the LH PH, they are obviously not as good as Williams and being a bench player always means small samples, but if the only thing that is going to get him untracked is more ABs he's not going to get untracked.

Altherr hasn't had much of a chance either but he's ultimately making it easier for them to release him, they really have no choice if and when the moment comes.

Not sure if Williams is playing tonight, latest article I read said during the Marlins series. But given the recent results (for both the team and Quinn) maybe a change is in order.

[andyb]

If he does not have a good game tonight, I might actually consider giving Harper a night/day off in the Marlins' series. His bat is not quick at the moment. He is missing too many fastballs.

[Squire]

RHP Drew Anderson optioned back to AAA
INF Mitch Walding optioned back to AAA
RHP Enyel De Los Santos called up
INF Sean Rodriguez called up and added to 40 man roster
LHP James Pazos DFA'd

[el-pietro]

Rodriguez is starting at SS tonight.

[andyb]

I saw this coming after his 4-4 day last week. Not sure there is evidence that Rodriguez has more range at SS than Asdrubel Cabrera did though. Or more evidence than a week that he can actually hit balanced by the last 2 years of data that showed he couldn't.

[David_Criss]

So Drew Anderson will be this years Jake Thompson. When you look at the very small sample size at AAA Rodriquez and Romine are fairly similar. Walding got a shot because he was on the 40-man, but how many times can he strike out? And he was struggling out of the gate. Gosselin was the better hitter of the three when he was called up, but is a 2B. He had only played 42 games at SS at the minor league level and 16 at the Major League level, while Rodriquez had played 379 and 176 respectively, but Romine played 603 games at SS in the minors and 188 at the Major League level. Given the start of this season, the fact that we are still a week away from finishing April and Mitch Walding, Sean Rodriquez and Phil Gosselin have had stints with the parent club-----ouch.

             AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	.OBP	.AVG	.OPS

Phil Gosselin 31 7 13 3 0 0 6 1 0.538 0.419 1.055
Shane Robinson 37 10 13 1 0 2 5 2 0.478 0.351 1.019
Roman Quinn 18 6 6 0 1 0 2 1 0.4 0.333 0.844
Andrew Romine 49 6 15 0 0 3 10 3 0.346 0.306 0.836
Sean Rodriguez 45 7 12 2 1 4 12 0 0.327 0.267 0.949
Mitch Walding 50 9 11 2 1 3 13 0 0.298 0.220 0.778
Dylan Cozens 52 14 10 1 1 6 14 3 0.348 0.192 0.945

[andyb]

It looks to me like they are using that last relief pitcher with options slot to rotate a long man through. Eickhoff, then Anderson, then De Los Santos. Whenever one of those goes more than 2 innings we rotate another one in for the next game to have a long reliever ready.

Sean Rodriguez is not likely to help much, but this is a game where we should feast on a bad pitcher. Jason Vargas. We rarely faces lefties and we have been having issues with good fastballs lately. Do not have to worry about that against Vargas. Pretty close to a must win for an early season game IMO.

[zambonir]

I find it more interesting that, we now know, the Phillies were just never that impressed with Pazos. Couldn't knock Alvarez off the roster, couldn't beat out Davis for a call-up, and there are obviously other guys in AA or AAA who could rise up the ranks mid-season. Hard to believe a lefty reliever loses his 40 spot so the Phillies can have two aging back-up utility guys tho.

I also wonder, since Pazos was also in the deal, how much of getting Nicasio was because they liked him and how much was to make the Santana deal work? But he's clearly not going anywhere.

With Robertson and Hunter both out they do have two optionable bullpen slots, so one is for a short man (started with Ramos, then Arano, then Davis briefly, now Ramos again) and the other for the long (which Anderson actually started, followed by Eickhoff, then Anderson again when Eickhoff left the bullpen. Hopefully De Los Santos is not needed tonight and will contribute at home).