2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I doubt they will sign both Smyly and Vargas but nothing wrong with a good dumpster dive or some 5th starter depth.

I don't really think the Cubs knew that much about Arrieta's condition that any team couldn't have seen (based on his velocity and performance). You don't routinely MRI your pitchers (hell, you barely do that when they first get hurt) and he didn't have a bone spur when he signed (though it was a known condition he'd had surgery for before). I think the Phillies took exactly the amount of risk they were willing to take with Arrieta. He was not going to sign a three-year deal with the Cubs. The Phillies had to overpay to get him to join a 66-win team, and to take the shorter deal (though who knows what kind of AAV was out there for him on a longer deal). They had to know Year Three was a risk (because if he pitched great, he was also going to exercise his option).

And even though he hasn't pitched like a "#2 Starter," he still wound up being the second-best starter both seasons (WAR-wise). He brought exactly the experience and stability they wanted from him, while all the younger unproven starters have been just as inconsistent both years.

[flyers19rw]

IDK that the Cubs weren’t on to Arietta having possible arm issues again. His ‘17 stats were a considerably off of what he had shown in the three previous seasons. Some said that this was due to his pending free agency. Club houses are tough places to hide issues. It could well have been that Chicago smelled arm issues. Notice that few clubs were breaking down the door to give Boras what he wanted with Arietta. What the Phillies can hope for is that he can get his elbow cleaned up and on the road to recovery. From what we’ve seen with Jake, he’s a bulldog that will be up to the challenge of taking on a strenuous re-hab.
Smyly is showing promise. TJ usually takes two full years before recovery is obtained ( hope for Gowdy?) If Smyly can hold it together for the rest of the season, he should be ready to go full bore next spring. A rotation of Nola, Hamels, and a recovered Smyly and Arietta could hold things together until younger arms like Howard are ready to step in to fill the roles. This route will probably be more reliable than pinning hopes on VV, Pivetta, a banged up Eickhoff, etc to fill out the rotation.

[zambonir]

Like you say, his '17 stats told a story and few clubs were breaking down the door; ergo, everyone in baseball knew he might have issues.

They can already sign Vargas for $6 million (with the Mets paying $2 million, which is either his buyout or the rest of his salary). I'm not sure Smyly is showing enough but he might not be worth that much on the open market either. They just have to pick is all. Smyly's younger of course.

But Nola, Arrieta, Hamels, Smyly, Eflin/VV/whoever isn't doing it for me. All three of those names in the middle are question marks (Arrieta because of the surgery/age, Hamels because of age, Smyly by definition). Give me Gerrit Cole. Maybe even Bumgarner over Hamels. Or a trade for someone better than Smyly.

[Austinfan]

Cole isn't coming here, he'll have his choice of teams and will look for a team that's ready to win now.
He's not enough to put the Phillies over the top.
He's a good bit to remain elite for 2-3 more seasons, but 32-34?

I don't see the Phillies really challenging until Bohm comes up and they build a deep bullpen.
Bohm is the key, 2 years left with Cutch, 2 years with Segura buys time for Moniak/Stephen and Stott, but we need another big bat in the middle of the order and to fill the 3B hole so Kingery can move to 2B.
So the lineup won't be filled out until 2021.

I'd be real wary of Bumgarner, how will he play outside of SF?
2019: Home FIP 3.08, xFIP 3.79, BA .223, Away FIP 4.72, xFIP 4.79, BA .279
2018: Home FIP 3.04, xFIP 3.92, BA .204, Away FIP 4.99, xFIP 4.74, BA .272
2017: Home FIP 3.99, xFIP 3.98, BA .228, Away FIP 3.92, xFIP 4.16, BA .247

Think I'd take Hamels for less money and term.

[zambonir]

We know you don't see the Phillies challenging but what do the Phillies think? Given how this season went (and, particularly, that they didn't get Corbin) will they stick to their long-term aversion or will they just view the dead years of a Cole contract as a sunk cost? My guess is that whether there's a new manager or it's Gabe's last season (potentially) or Klentak's job is on the line, 2020 is playoffs or bust, not "wait until 2021."

If Hamels is available for less money and terms, i don't necessarily disagree. But if so, he's not our only new pitcher.

You can't actually build a deep bullpen. You can try, but guys drop, whether they are young or old. Neris, Morgan, Arano, Dominguez and Seranthony was more than half of our deep bullpen and four of them are gone. It won't be any different in future years with Garcia, Hammer, Dohy etc. They will continue to need both vets and youngsters.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are running away with it this year with mostly non-homegrown starters and multiple expensive aging relievers (but much better homegrown hitters). Their guys just stayed healthy (though they still didn't have enough starters).

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Neris, Morgan, Arano, Dominguez and Seranthony was more than half of our deep bullpen and four of them are gone.

Perhaps you meant Hunter in place of Seranthony or Dominguez? Or if the criteria is homegrown, is it Rios?

[Lawman]

Wednesday game is on ESPN and should be Nola vs Hamels.

On a personal note, I'm heading down to Philly from NY and plan on going to the game tomorrow night.

[Lawman]

I'd be more inclined to bring up Howard then Bohm.

[julio]

I'd be more inclined to bring up Howard then Bohm.

Same issue. Spencer Howard isn't Rule 5-eligible until the December 2020 draft. Bring him up now only if you actually think he can help you get to the post season this fall, or if you expect to keep him on the 25-man roster in 2020. Otherwise he ties up a 40-man roster spot unnecessarily.

[andyb]

The real issue is whether either could help now. I would probably say each has maybe a 10%-20% chance of being able to help at the major league level after a small amount of time at AA. It is probably the same equation as making trades at the deadline - is it going to help us compete for the division and if not is the wild card worth it.

The cost to bringing up these players now as opposed to next May or June is a year of service time. That is a small cost but is it worth another game in the wild card standings? This is less about the rule 5 draft. We'll muddle through that and the cost of not protecting someone is really not that great. Each is performing well in limited time, but of course an 853 OPS is something we have seen before and Howard has only thrown 14 innings there He could help as a high leverage 2-inning reliever perhaps, but do we want to have a valuable and fragile arm change roles for a month to help us get the second wild card.

Better to leave both down there and win the Eastern League playoffs IMO.

[Lawman]

Agreed.

[julio]

The real issue is whether either could help now.

...

The cost to bringing up these players now as opposed to next May or June is a year of service time. That is a small cost but is it worth another game in the wild card standings? This is less about the rule 5 draft. We'll muddle through that and the cost of not protecting someone is really not that great.

I don't really agree with this, andyb. But I guess it depends on how you view where the Phillies are today, and what you expect between now and September 30th.

I don't really see a service time issue. It's late enough in the season that if you brought up a Bohm or a Howard today, they wouldn't accrue enough service time to trigger a super-2 status, much less a full season (necessary for FA). It only becomes relevant if you anticipate the player bouncing around on optional assignments, and so losing ML service time. But it seems to me that if you really think either of these guys is ready, you aren't anticipating optioning them out next year (well, perhaps Howard, if your calculus is that he's better than what we have now, but we'll add pitching this winter). We're talking about 45 days service time - that's a long way from a full year's time (172 days).

But I see the Rule 5 issue as more relevant - I guess because I've concluded that bringing either (or both) of these guys up wouldn't get the Phillies into the post-season in 2019. Since I don't see a significant service time issue, what's left is the Rule 5. In my mind, the question is, do you tie up the roster spot this winter in order to "reward" Bohm or Howard for an outstanding season... because that's all I see it being about. I wouldn't do it - unless as GM, I'd already made my winter roster decisions, and I had extra slots - keeping in mind not only the players I currently have on the roster and in the system, but any possible additions/deletions I might pursue before November 20th (when winter rosters are set). I wouldn't be inclined to reduce my flexibility this fall just to "reward" one of these guys just yet. Give 'em a Paul Owens award.

[DurhamBull]

Having seen the Phils schooled repeatedly by better teams, I wouldn’t expect them to get far at all in the postseason so I don’t think competing for a wild card spot is worth much cost or sacrifice. I think a wild card spot would have positive psychological value for the team and fans, but no matter what I feel confident the Phils will be spectators in October.

[Lawman]

I am inclined, however, to have Bohm be in AAA by season's end.

[allentown]

I don't think that helps. Reading will be in post-season and Allentown won't. That will be a good experience for Bohm.

[julio]

I am inclined, however, to have Bohm be in AAA by season's end.

If that's going to happen, it had better happen soon. The IronPigs have 23 games remaining (in 21 days).

The R-Phils have 21 games remaining (in the same 21 days).

However, Reading will be in the post-season. Lehigh Valley will not. Do we want Bohm (and Howard) to get post-season experience?

[Taudawg]

Yes, what Atown said.

Lehigh Valley isn't going to the playoffs while Reading is. I think the Phils should leave Bohm and Howard in Reading. Let them play out the season on a winning team, and gain additional experience in AA playoffs. Don't start Rule 5 or service time clocks until needed. Let's see how the Phillies can improve this team in the off season before we pencil these guys in for next year. No sense in them starting in Philly next spring if there isn't significant improvements to the big league squad, before adding them.

[julio]

No sense in them starting in Philly next spring if there isn't significant improvements to the big league squad, before adding them.

Yes. Neither Bohm nor Howard (nor the two of them) are miraculously going to make the Phils significantly better in the short run. Given that, they should be promoted to the majors when they force the issue. That may well be sometime in 2020; it may be later.

[system]

This topic was automatically closed after reaching the maximum limit of 1500 replies.

[julio]

See continuation of this thread here.