2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[allentown]

I won't disagree with that, but I think it illustrates how tending toward some 'mean' over a full 162-game season is a meaningless concept. For this to have any meaning, the teams would have to be constant throughout the season. As you say, early on -- SSS or not, the Phillies were a good team. Now they aren't a good team. It's not that we were super lucky early and through some cosmic, statistical balancing have now swung to super unlucky. Yes, injuries can be viewed as luck, but primarily they effect the real quality of the team fielded. Today's Phillies aren't at all the same team that existed early in the season, meaning this isn't the same statistical sample population, meaning there is no mean to revert to.

[flyers19rw]

In defense of Klentak, the MLB channel just flashed the best five BP eras for August and the Phillies are number five. He has done a good job of adding relievers for the stretch run as well as picking up Dickerson.

[Austinfan]

And he did so without sacrificing assets from a thin farm system (at least at the top).

[andyb]

All left-handed OF tonight against a left-handed starter. I am guessing they are hoping to get Johnson out of there quickly. He has only gone more than 3 IP once this season and is for all intents and purposes an opener.

I kind of like Kapler doing this. It is thinking ahead rather than starting an obvious RH bat (Rodriquez) and he has the switch-hitting catcher in there already. Realmuto is at 1B tonight with Hoskins the DH. It is a really thin lineup against LHP but that might only be the first 3 innings.

[andyb]

Phillies might start Nola every 5 days the rest of the way, skipping others. Probably the right thing to do though Nola has wavered under the workload at times. This pretty much solves the Arrieta slot in the rotation. They can skip his next turn (day off Thursday) and basically do occasional bullpen games in September since they will have a larger pitching staff.

https://sports.yahoo.com/phillies-prepared-ride-aaron-nola-001046739.html?src=rss

[zambonir]

But they already replaced Arrieta with Eflin (though you could say that's the same thing as a bullpen game) who still has to start this weekend. Starting Nola Sunday means moving Vargas. I guess they can rethink it from there if they want to. I assume we'll still see Strailey get a proper start, just not before roster expansion.

(Also the optimist in me asks, after Nola beats the Marlins on 9/29 who gets the wild card game start? I guess the answer right now, both in terms of effectiveness and rotation, would be Vargas. Though it would also end up being a bullpen game a la the Brewers last year I bet.)

[andyb]

In practice in the future though it means skipping the 5th starter as much as you can. Maybe they push back everyone, but I probably would not be shocked if they drop whomever the worst starter is when they can. Or drop LHPs against teams that are good against LHP.

Basically we have 1 good starter and 4 guys who are 5th starter types at the moment, so not sure it really matters. In terms of recent performances I would rank them VV, Vargas, Smyly, and then Eflin in terms of effectiveness, but that soft ranking of 2-5 could change every day.

[Philsmania]

In defense of Klentak, the MLB channel just flashed the best five BP eras for August and the Phillies are number five. He has done a good job of adding relievers for the stretch run as well as picking up Dickerson.

In 2007 and 2008, Romero and Eyre were valuable contributors after arriving off the scrap heap. Maybe Morin will do something similar this season. It's undeniable that he has been good for us. Parker has been much-improved here too.

[zambonir]

Speaking of 5th (or 6th) starters, Eickhoff came off the 60-day yesterday (swapped for Arrieta), optioned to AAA.

[andyb]

Eickhoff has given up 11 ER in 12.1 IP in various rehab outings so he'll need to be better than that to get a September callup even if he would fit into their tandem starter scheme in September.

[zambonir]

I wasn't seriously suggesting he should get a start but he'll probably get a call-up. Otherwise he needs to be off the 40 to make room for Vincent or Strailey (or even Bruce).

[andyb]

If he pitches poorly in AAA they could always shut him down and call it an injury recurrence and put him back on the 60. Agree that they'll bring one or two pitchers up off the 40. Vincent seems pretty likely to me.

[LoneStarPhan]

Didn't Strailey get bombed in AAA this week?

[EDmuch]

Eickhoff is DONE. If it were not for AF's quixotic efforts to continually resurrect his career, I think the vast majority of fans would recognize that while he has worked hard, his body has let him down.

[zambonir]

Are you saying AF has singlehandedly kept Eickhoff on the 40-man roster and in the minds of Philies phans?

There is certainly no reason to believe Strailey will be better than Smyly. Or Eickhoff. Let alone Eflin (or Pivetta). But he's a controllable arm (if you put him on the 40) so could still be worth a look.

I suspect tonight's game will be a model for September. Which is great if it keeps working!

[andyb]

We are now kind of average defensively! Most improved defense in baseball. Big changes are Harper, Realmuto, and LF. We also are saving 6 runs on shifts after being -10 last year. Maybe they are learning how to do this better.

We are only at +12 DRS overall, but that is much better than the record-breaking -146 last year. Hey, maybe the difference in our final 5-game series with the Nats will Asdrubel Cabrera in the field for them.

Which teams are the most improved defensively in baseball?

[BostonRoss]

There was nowhere to go but up, of course, but it is nice to see. The Sox cost themselves a run by trying to steal on J.T. right before Bradley's home run. Kingery also looked good last night.

That said, it seems to me that the Phillies have trouble turning double plays. They had a DP attempt early on where Segura seemed very slow to get the ball to Hernandez, and the runner beat the throw at first. Later, Bogaerts hit into a DP where both Segura and Hernandez seemed to juggle the ball, but they got the DP because Bogaerts didn't hustle.

[andyb]

On that first DP the Red Sox announcers noted the player got down the line in 3.9 seconds which is really good. Ball was only hit medium-hard but I think it was more the speed of the runner rather than Segura and Hernandez.

The steal clearly was only in the 50-50 expectations range against Realmuto so agree that was a dumb move by Boston.

[Austinfan]

I think the way Realmuto has come around extending him should be the first priority before looking at FAs.

I'm happy to let Segura play out his contract and walk, with Stott and possibly Simmons and Garcia as options in 2-3 years, but I doubt we can replace Realmuto in the foreseeable future.

[zambonir]

I never doubted Realmuto would get extended and this off-season would be the time to do it obviously.

Zero chance Segura is here past his current contract, I doubt his 2023 option will even get picked up. He could even be traded before 2022.