2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[California_Dreamin]

PC...your memory is correct, my friend. The 1980 Phillies crawled out of Pittsburgh in mid August with a 55-52 record, 6 games behind the Expos. Remember that was the weekend where Dallas Green went ballistic after they were swept in 4 games. Their season looked over and Green really took them to task.

They won 2 of 3 in Chicago but it was what came next that turned the season around. They went to New York for a 5 game series with the Mets and absolutely demolished them. I remember every game...8-1,8-0, 11-6, 9-4 and 4-1. Even more impressive was that 5 starters all pitched well...Espinosa, Christenson, Walk, Carlton and Lerch.

Miraculously, they picked up 5 games that week and came home back in the race. But they still displayed inconsistency, winning only 4 of 9 games in their homestand against the Padres, Giants and Dodgers. They left for a crucial West Coast visit and here came THE MOMENT.

They won the first two games in San Diego but lost the last two and particularly galling was that Maddux lost a catchable fly ball because he had forgotten to put on his sun glasses.

They showed up on Labor Day in San Francisco and to their surprise [irritation?] Paul Owens really gave them ■■■■ in the clubhouse before the opener, Carlton vs Blue. He called them lazy, selfish and underperforming. Players said this stunned them, they had always viewed Owens as an ally, now he was the protagonist. The was THE MOMENT.

They went out and beat Blue, swept the Giants and finished the road trip in LA. Though they won only 1 of 4 games in LA they played well and on the final game, in the final inning [I know because I was listening!] the Phils introduced a reliever just called up...a guy named Marty Bystrom. Vin Scully mentioned that the Phils were thinking of using him as a starter going down the stretch. Indeed, to the tune of a 5-0 record in September.

They also introduced another hurler that day, veteran lefty reliever Sparky Lyle, just acquired from the Yankees. He also played a key September role.

The Phils played well and with enthusiasm the rest of the way and the game that told me they were going to win it came on the final Monday night of the season. Montreal still had a .5 game lead on the Phils and had won earlier in the evening. Phils played a long, long game [think it went 15 innings] against the Cubs and the Cubs scored 2 in the top of the 15th to take a 5-3 lead.

I remember watching the sports show and the announcer said Cubs look like winners, 5-3. I was so disappointed and went to bed thinking the race was over, 1.5 behind with only a few games left. Shocked the next morning to find out the Phils had scored 3 in the bottom of the 15th to win 6-5.

I knew, just knew right then they would win the division and they did, clinching it on the last Saturday of the season on a Schmidt homer in the 10th.

[Austinfan]

The difference was that was a squad that had been a contender since 1976, had underperformed in 1979, and was under performing again - so they needed a swift kick.

This team is more like the 2003/2004 teams, not really young, but with some young players on the way.
2003: Lieberthal (31), Thome (32), Palanco (27), Rollins (24), Bell (30), Burrell (26), Byrd (25), Abreu (29) and Utley (24) at the end of the season
2004: Lieberthal (32), Thome (33), Palanco (28), Rollins (25), Bell (31), Burrell (27), Byrd (26), Abreu (30), Utley (25)
After 2004, a serious of bad decisions kept them a tier below for 3 more years:
let Millwood leave in free agency in 2005
traded Byrd in May 2005 for Endy Chavez
traded Polanco in June 2005 for 4 months of Urbina in the pen
let Wolf leave in free agency in 2006 after injury marred season, he'd have four solid seasons from 2008-2011
traded Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Garcia in the winter of 2006
traded Abreu in July 2006 for trash as a salary dump
lack of starter depth then forced them to move Myers from the pen in 2007 back to the rotation in 2008

Howard and Utley became starters in 2005, Hamels in 2006, Ruiz and Victorino in 2007.
Had they been more patient, and spent more money, and didn't try as hard to win now, they could have had a heck of a team by 2006 which would have improved each year.

[andyb]

This is actually a team where the vast majority of the offensive core is in the prime of their career. Harper, Hoskins, Segura, Realmuto, Cesar, Dickerson. And most have played better in the recent past. Pitching is sketchier but this offense could totally catch fire and it would be playing up to expectations.

[teabag259]

This definitely is a team that if the main guys all get hot for a month or so...they could simply mash their way into the postseason.

Here's to hoping...

[zambonir]

We're 63-58 now. .521 WP.

We were 64-56 on this day in 2007. .533

2008: 65-58, .528 (but not so far out of first).

'09 and '10 teams were in better shape (though not In July for the latter year, IIRC).

The wild card format really is unfortunate, even as good as the Dodgers are I gotta think they would have been more aggressive at the deadline for more than a one-game shot. I think even the addition of Dickerson and the recent contributions of Haseley and Quinn show just how hard it was for them to produce when they were short two bats most nights.

[Austinfan]

Klentak was right not to make panic moves, patience is often the best policy.

Problem is you have to have the right players to be patient with over the next couple years.
If Nick Williams could play defense, I'd see if he can hit, but he's a subpar LF.
If Franco was a plus defensive 3B, I'd see if he can turn it around.
Quinn is certainly worth figuring out how to keep him around and see if he can stay healthy.
Eickhoff is worth seeing if he can get past his injuries and be an innings eater.

Some of these decisions are driven by roster limits and UFA status, but often teams make changes for the sake of change.

[Taudawg]

Hope is not a strategy.

Nick Williams can hit, but he's so bad in the field it outweighs any bat short of 3+ WAR. Plus Cutch is our LF. Trade Nick for International $$$.

Franco has had 5 up-and-down years. He is what he is, not good enough and he plays a position the Phillies can upgrade going into next year. Trade Franco for International $$$.

Quinn is a nice #4/5 outfielder and late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. If he stays healthy, he's a nice player.

I don't think Eickhoff will ever be healthy.

[zambonir]

I think AF meant it was worth keeping Williams and Franco this year though that's only half-true. Williams simply should have been dealt once they acquired two corner OFs ahead of him. While I don't think the Phillies ruined or even mistreated him it's actually shocking how he couldn't handle being a bench player, and how many LHB they've acquired to fill that same hole (now including Morrison).

I can't imagine Eickhoff gets tendered, though he certainly wouldn't be getting a big raise. I would think he's also finally out of options. Minor league deal, and probably not with us.

The current starting 8 and bench may actually be good enough now. In a one wild-card system we probably would have wanted to add a better starter than Vargas. The patchwork bullpen doesn't bother me.

[teabag259]

Unfortunately Quinn hurt again. It’s a damn shame. He is showing that he can play.

Hopefully he gets lucky for once and it’s a day to day thing. But unfortunately with his history we have to assume we don’t see him again until mid to late September if at all.

[mdougherty12]

Harper's recent hot streak appears to correlate with pulling the ball more frequently:

Shift in approach helping Harper heat up

[DurhamBull]

Unfortunately Quinn hurt again. It’s a damn shame. He is showing that he can play.

Hopefully he gets lucky for once and it’s a day to day thing. But unfortunately with his history we have to assume we don’t see him again until mid to late September if at all.

A lot of young players have gotten brief opportunities to shine this year. Quinn really succeeded in his, and I'm glad for him. I hope when he returns from his injury, he doesn't feel like he has to prove himself all over again and he can just play. His numbers for the season are still not great, but in the last month over 57 PAs he's hitting .340 with a 1.011 OPS.

Roman Quinn 2019 Batting Splits | Baseball-Reference.com

[andyb]

More importantly I think Quinn was showing his first callup was really the aberration. Remember they called him up after a handful of games and missing most of Spring Training. I really thought they were going to give him a solid couple of weeks in AAA to replace all the ABs he missed but they basically threw him out there when he was not ready. He is not the 1000 OPS guy of this month or maybe not the 800 OPS guy of the second half, but if you at his K rate by half you see the difference: 1st half 19 Ks in 50 PA. 2nd half 15 Ks in 72 PA.

Hopefully it is a day to day injury and he'll be back without an IL trip.

[schillingfan]

The Harper article is a really good read. It should be read by those, like me, have complained about launch angle. The author argues that Bryce’s hitting has improved since he stopped trying to not pull the ball because. Of the shift.

[zambonir]

Groins are rarely day-to-day alas (especially if it was enough to make him grab it and leave the game). And he's not a guy you want to rush back! Hope I'm wrong. I guess it still comes down to his comfort level and whether it could actually tear (or tear further).

Unfortunately, when you talk about Quinn's talent, the fact that his body can't take the way he plays is just part of the package, just like less control is part of certain pitchers' package.

A lot of what was said in that Harper article is what has always been said about the shift, you know Charlie is on board with that stuff too. He never wanted Howard to go the other way or settle for a single (unfortunately Howard just wasn't healthy/good by the time the shift started being an issue).

[Austinfan]

That's funny, because he's hitting HRs to left center on a regular basis the last few games.

Howard had his success when he'd focus on hitting the ball there, because it made his swing more balanced. Howard has said that after his achilles injury, he was trying to pull the ball to compensate for a decline in power, and that's what ruined him.

With Harper, I think it's a matter of balance, when he's driving the ball to center, he's not getting in front of inside pitches and pulling them foul or getting on top of outside breaking stuff and grounding out to 2B.

[VoteForKalas]

As many of us suspected, the narrative is the offense has stepped up after the firing of Mallee. We'll see if the team can sustain this momentum, but I suspect this more to do with Harper getting hot at the plate and some better pitching

[zambonir]

I think there are plenty of people who understand the narrative is just a narrative. But sports are also about the stories we tell ourselves.

I think Dickerson, Haseley and Quinn have also really helped in small ways. The pitching too, for sure.

In the end it's more or less the same quality of team, and the same as almost any .520-.550 team: good at home, not great on the road, able to compete with the best teams but not beat them regularly. Clearly we caught the Cubs at a good time. Now the big remaining questions to me are, can they continue to handle the Mets (six games coming up) and will the 10-game road trip at the end of the season (before three at home) make or break them?

What we've seen the past week is the formula they always intended though - big offense, effective bullpen.

[julio]

Philadelphia Phillies (Phillies)

[zambonir]

More often than not our "who will they cut/send down?" debates/speculations end with an injury instead. Even if Roman is 100% healthy on 8/27 (which would be rather optimistic) I imagine he'll stay put until 9/1.

[zambonir]

And, meanwhile

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

Wonder if they'll try to turn his 2021 buyout ($2 milllion) into a cheap one-year deal.