2019-2020 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

[Philsmania]

Wasn't there talk of the Reds being an up-and-coming team this past season? Now, it appears they are letting Bauer walk and selling off parts.

[zambonir]

Agreed. The owners don't care, and it's not even about short-term P&L, it's all about keeping the squeeze on for the next CBA.

I do think travel does make a difference in terms of overall health though. You are going to have a lot more strains and sprains and poor performance (in that sense it's gonna be like the first year they stopped putting out greenies in the clubhouse), and long flights/road trips/jet lag will exacerbate.

The Reds and the Phillies are in pretty similar situations really. They are both built to win now, could both continue to try and win within their respective payroll parameters, and should be taking advantage of the opportunity presented by other teams crying poor. Instead they're joining the line for alms.

I feel bad for Reds fans, though at the same time, the small-market inevitability of waving the white flag may well put them in a much better place than the Phillies in a couple of years. The Rays appear poised to do the exact same thing, except the Rays always do that, and always make it work, even in the worst market in baseball, so they won't get criticized.

[flyers19rw]

Its interesting how these names in rumors get out to the public. The Iglesias trade probably opened up a Pandora's box for scuttlebutt on them. Maybe the Reds are shopping people or maybe the Reds are being shopped by other clubs. Not too long ago, the rumor mill had the Phillies shopping Wheeler, highly doubtful, and Segure, a definite probable. Tis the season for creative thinking.

[Taudawg]

Interesting move by the Nats - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/pirates-trade-josh-bell-nationals.html

He has a good stick, yet a butcher in the field. Only a career 2.6 WAR (BR). Feels like they are counting on DH to be back in 2021. Also giving up prospects #3 and #6

[flyers19rw]

Bell has been a heavy bat in the past. Then he went to the HR Derby in '19. Since then things have dropped off a bit for him. If he can get back to his earlier track, he's a good guy to add. If not, its a wasted acquisition by the Nats.

[zambonir]

Still youngish and not a free agent until 2023, hence the slightly high trade price. I think teams aren't going to read too much into 2020 numbers in either direction.

If you told me I could trade Rhys for two Top 6 prospects I'd certainly listen, though obviously it depends on the system/prospects.

[zambonir]

Padres getting Blake Snell

BREAKING: The Padres have an agreement in place to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, sources tell @JCTSports , @Ken_Rosenthal and me. Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox would head to Tampa. Deal pending review of medical records.

— Dennis Lin ( @dennistlin ) December 28, 2020

[andyb]

Remember when the Padres signed over a dozen high priced talents in the international market for only a financial penalty in 2016? This is what that allows you to do 4-5 years later. Patino was one of those players and the overall depth of that international class has allowed much of what the Padres have wanted to the past few years.

Edit - Looks like the Padres are getting Kim (the Korean SS/2B) also. $7-$8 million annual range (plus posting fee one assumes).
https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1343582641791102976

It is a little annoying to see the Phillies not even being mentioned with one of the 4 top SS on the market when there is a clear need at SS on this team. I am not saying that Kim can play a decent SS. The Padres have a SS and will play him at 2B. It just seems the Phillies can't get beyond conventional wisdom in their quest to improve the team. This is the type of thinking that has led to bad decisions in other areas like the bullpen. We can't seem to think out of the box to acquire new talent.

[zambonir]

It seems like we've just never had a serious presence/interest in Asia. Obviously not in Sal's wheelhouse, and the Klentak regime didn't change that. Of course the Pacific time zone teams do generally have an advantage (with some obvious exceptions).

[Philsmania]

It seems like we've just never had a serious presence/interest in Asia. Obviously not in Sal's wheelhouse, and the Klentak regime didn't change that. Of course the Pacific time zone teams do generally have an advantage (with some obvious exceptions).

It seems like we haven't tried sniffing around Asia since that Korean fiasco in 2001. There are all kinds of interesting urban legends about what happened there (kickbacks on top of con jobs, maybe a little extortion thrown in).

[zambonir]

They've certainly tried to give the impression that they were in on some of the bigger posted names, but I'm not sure they ever seriously were. You would think scouting those types of guys would not be difficult (i.e. there's plenty of video and stats) and I do seem to recall the executive suite level people making a trip or two, but it just doesn't seem to be an area of effort.

One also assumes whatever scouting or negotiating calls they made on Kim as a front office was already made before Dombrowski entered the picture. Especially if it's true that they only want a SS on a one-year deal (they certainly don't need a 2B at the moment).

[David_Criss]

Now the Padres are deep in talks to acquire Yu Darvish.

[Philsmania]

Per MLBTR, the trade is also likely to include a catcher which would take them out of the Realmuto market.

Being in the same division as the Dodgers really forces teams to push the envelope.

[allentown]

Not unless the catcher is a plus MLB starting catcher.

[zambonir]

It's Caratini. They also have Austin Nola. I don't think they were ever considered big players for JT but hey the sky's the limit!

Just goes to show how far away the Phillies are. It's true about the Dodgers thing but the Padres were the 3rd or 4th-best team in the NL last year and we're just hoping to get to 6th or 7th. (And for all the talk about GMs needing to know if there is going to be a DH, the playoff format is also something you'd think they'd want to know.)

[fish]

Padres swinging deals with a lot of well regarded international bonus babies and second round picks- two groups the Phils got virtually nothing out of during their rebuild.

[zambonir]

It's also striking that the Cubs and Astros have already started their rebuilds (the Cubs more aggressively), with or without the pandemic, whereas the Phillies are unlikely to win anything before reaching that same point on the timeline.

At the same time, it's pretty embarassing that this is all baseball is these days. Arbitrage. Not bad in and of itself but now that teams are so committed to setting valuation the CBA needs to level things for players when they are at their most productive.

I'm sure the Cubs are in much worse shape than the Phillies, as their value (and debt) revolves around the overall Wrigley complex, where nobody is now. The Phillies lack that component because the Flyers control all that stuff.

[andyb]

Seeing the Cubs do this is kind of amazing. I guess a change in leadership (no Theo) and the pandemic have given them cover. But the reality is that they play in a weak division that they won relatively easily last year. And now there is a house sale on their best players.

Keith Law is not a fan of the return:

Cubs trade Yu Darvish to Padres: Keith Law's analysis

Looks like they got a reliable back-of-the-rotation type in Davies then some kids who probably were not in the Padres' top 10 (though one just got a $1.3 million international bonus). The strength of having depth in the farm system.

The blowback in Chicago though is likely to be immense.

[Philsmania]

I'm sure the Cubs are in much worse shape than the Phillies, as their value (and debt) revolves around the overall Wrigley complex, where nobody is now. The Phillies lack that component because the Flyers control all that stuff.

Not sure about that. Yes, Comcast/the Flyers control (and get all the money from) the parking lots surrounding and adjacent to the WFC and XFinity Live. The Eagles control (and get all the money from) the parking lots around the Linc. The Phillies control (and get all the money from) the parking lots around CBP and Pass & Stowe (which isn't as much of a going concern as the old McFadden's was).

But addressing another point you made about the Cubs and Astros starting rebuilds, yeah, it does seem like windows of opportunity are not as large as they used to be. Now, it seems as if teams do everything to build for and maximize a three year run before blowing it all up. Enjoying a long run like we had from arguably 2001 to 2011 may be a thing of the past for teams other than the Dodgers and Yankees.

And Andyb, yes, it's possible that the NL Central may be baseball's worst division next year. See also the Reds who are letting Bauer walk and trying to sell off parts just when it appears that they are coming out of their own rebuild. Not NFC Least bad but likely to be won by an 82-86 win team. And the Cubs are blowing things up while their ugly stepsister, the White Sox are on the rise.

Makes me wonder. If the Darvish deal was a fire sale with the Cubs sending no cash to San Diego, if Middleton and the Bucks are willing to absorb the at least $17 million owed to Kimbrel ($16 million for 2021, $1 million buyout or $16 million for 2022), is it possible the Phillies could get him for a song (though admittedly he hasn't been very good the last couple of years)?

[andyb]

I think all the in-division play hid the weakness of the central division a bit last year. Somebody has to win when bad teams play each other (of course the Eagles and WFT could give us one of those boring 6-6 ties on national TV Sunday night).

What is sad is that even in a weak division you used to have teams positioning themselves to win it, and then maybe with a couple of hot starters they could beat a team in the playoffs kind of like the Nationals did a couple of years ago. Of course one could say that the Cubs still might be able to win their division even after getting rid of their best players, so in that case their strategy could get them in the playoffs while rebuilding their farm system. Baseball America had all of these prospects ranked 15-20 in the Padres system, so that is a shot in the arm since the Padres system is so deep (that would probably be 4 prospects 9-14 in the Phillies system for instance).