2019-2020 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

[andyb]

Mike Minor to the Royals on a 2-year deal. Dollars not announced but assume he got less than what we all thought a year ago when the Phillies were interested. And Trevor May to the Mets. He was on my second-tier bullpen wish list.

Edit - 2 years/$18 million guaranteed for Minor. 2/15 for May.

[schillingfan]

When the Phillies were affiliated with SWB I went to the games to see future Phillies prospects. I might add I saw way more of Chase Utley than I should have! Now that they are a Yankees affiliate I go for special events, like dog days and when groups I affiliate with buy tickets. I have maybe a couple of times gone to watch the Iron Pigs when they are playing the Rail Riders, but that’s not much of a draw lately since Phillies prospects have been few and far between.

As for Williamsport baseball fans, although Julio probably knows better than me, my guess is they might go to either Harrisburg or Scranton Wilkes-Barre as they are both about an hour away if they didn’t have a team. It’s a good place for the draft team because of the Little League World Series.

[andyb]

Really good article from Fangraphs on whether the Braves lost money this past season. Since they are publicly traded there is much more transparency with them than other teams.

Highlights.
- Revenue went from $2.7 million per game in 2019 to $1.7 million in 2020
- Extra playoffs and bonus midweek games meant national TV revenue was close to the same in 2020 as 2019
- Local TV revenue gets pro-rated (though co-ownership of networks means team like the Phillies take a lesser hit)
- When games were played, the Braves made a profit on each marginal game (unlike the lies that MLB told of a longer season meaning more losses). Braves probably lost about $20 million during the season counting the 2nd quarter where no games were played.
- For the whole year the Braves losses were around $65 million though that does not consider tax benefits so the actual amount is likely less.
- Adding 2019 and 2020 together is close to break even

In short, there is no way the Phillies lost $145 million. As I said previously, $50 million is a more reasonable estimate. The payroll was higher than the Braves, but over 60 games not really that much higher. And the Phillies have much more local TV revenue and get something on the back end.

MLB and the Phillies are just flat out lying and spinning about their losses. A player might be losing 10%-20% of their career. The Phillies have a 1-year hiccup that really reduces their profits over a 2-3 year period and their franchise value should emerge intact.

What the Braves Can Tell Us About MLB’s Financial Losses in 2020

[el-pietro]

Schwarber non tendered

[Philsmania]

Schwarber non tendered

Once upon a time, Amaro sought him as the centerpiece of the Hamels trade. Or Swihart from the Red Sox.

[zambonir]

Can he still catch?

[andyb]

Archie Bradley would be an interesting target for the Phillies among the non-tenders. I think his arbitration price got too high because his clock got started after a really good year. I think he is kind of a better version of Tommy Hunter. Pretty durable, can close as a secondary option. Same type of appeal as Trevor May and likely a similar price. Not as good swing and miss stuff, but can pitch more innings.

[BostonRoss]

Schwarber non tendered

Once upon a time, Amaro sought him as the centerpiece of the Hamels trade. Or Swihart from the Red Sox.

Actually, the Phillies got more WAR out of Eickhoff than the Cubs have gotten from Schwarber.

Of course, Hamels has been more valuable than all of the players we got for him combined, including the guy we traded Alfaro for.

[el-pietro]

I'm really surprised at how mediocre his numbers look. I didn't think he was a superstar but I had a very inflated sense of his abilities based on his reputation, or my idea of his reputation at least. I'm sure there will be better players available.

[andyb]

There do seem to be lots of power hitters that draw walks (the three outcome guys) that are now hitting below .200. Maybe call it the Chris Davis phenomenon. Shifts are likely a part of it, but I thinking pitching has decided that it is OK to walk these guys (and they strikeout a lot also) as long as they don't hit a home run. So the pitching approach is lots of offspeed and very few strikes.

A Bryce Harper is just a better hitter and runner than Schwarber so he has more options at the plate (2-strike approach, bunts) and does not clog the bases when he gets on. And his defense is at least average. Finally, arbitration awards have always overrated power hitters. We saw this with Ryan Howard. Schwarber was going to get like $9 million in arbitration as the system always gives raises even off of bad seasons because service time and previous awards are part of the equation.

Schwarber will do fine in a 2 league DH world. With Cutch better off at DH he is less of a fit for the Phillies, but Nelson Cruz is doing just fine as a career DH.

[andyb]

The non tender that on the surface is a good fit for the Phillies would be David Dahl. Came off a bad season last year in very limited time but can play CF and is good in the corners. I am less enamored and think he is more like Haseley and we have 2 of them including Moniak (4th OFs likely better in a corner than CF). 828 career OPS but the Colorado split is typical (918 home/722 road). I like Rosario more even though the defense is worse.

Archie Bradley would be a higher priority among these high profile non tenders. And I have no idea why Carlos Rodon has played so poorly with his stuff, but the Phillies may not be the right fit for him since there will be pressure on the back end starters.

[flyers19rw]

In short, there is no way the Phillies lost $145 million. As I said previously, $50 million is a more reasonable estimate. The payroll was higher than the Braves, but over 60 games not really that much higher. And the Phillies have much more local TV revenue and get something on the back end.

This is the type of news that can turn its phans against a franchise. Add to that losing Realmuto to a publicly stated shortage of money does not play well. I understand that the owners are tempting to put forward a solid front with a cry of economic hardship going into the upcoming CBA negotiations. However putting forward blatantly false information is not a winning strategy.
The $145 number is so Gilesean. It won't play well here for the organization or Middleton's reputation. He's stepping into the territory of being exactly the type of owner that the local phans abhor. In a year where the Flyers and/or Sixers make a deep PO run, which is a definite possibility with the rosters that these two clubs have, and the typical usual interest in the Eagles that starts around the 4th of July, the Phillies could find themselves way behind the eight ball in the city's sports scene. They really need to do things to earn the phans interest and trust.

[Philsmania]

Whenever the Phillies put an entertaining winning team on the field, the phans ultimately forgive and forget the sins of the ownership suite and show up in force. In 1993, they forgave and forgot very quickly and showed up in force. By the end of the 20th Century, however, the phanbase's shunning of the organization was quite severe and it took multiple multiple winning seasons and the Jim Thome signing to bring them back. In 2001, we had a very exciting team and one which contended until two days before the season ended yet the only NL teams that drew worse than them were the perennially attendance-derelict Marlins and Expos. In the end, however, most of this talk of "I'm never going to follow them again", "They've lost me as a fan" or "I'm going to root for [insert other MLB team's name] now" is usually just talk.

[zambonir]

Most teams and owners don't really want to win that badly. Yeah, a guy like Middleton has a passion for it, but not so much to overcome the default corporate mentality, especially because he's not the sole owner. And of course, it's great when winning boosts the bottom line with sellouts and TV ratings and merch. But those things are just gravy. Half the teams in MLB pretty much can't ever win the World Series, and historically the Phillies and many other teams (including the Cubs, White Sox, Orioles, Astros) are happy to tread water more often than not. It can't ever get bad enough for them to where the franchise loses value, especially not in the current media environment.

[andyb]

Rule 5 draft names to watch (includes Zach Warren):

10 names to watch ahead of the Rule 5 Draft

Draft is Thursday at Noon.

[LoneStarPhan]

So this is the normal week of the winter meetings. Gosh, it sure doesn't seem like it. Maybe it is me, but the discussion and news of off season dealings and signings doesn't seem to be up to the normal year.

[andyb]

It really would be nice for MLB to confirm the rules for next year. They are sending signals today about no DH in the NL but that is still really subject to negotiation. And fundamental things like roster size really should be confirmed ahead of the rule 5 draft as an expanded roster would clearly lead to more players being taken.

[zambonir]

Squeezing the MLBPA takes priority over making GM's jobs easier. I don't see how we'll get an answer on this stuff before March, if then, since it's all tied to length of season, potential salary proration, and expanded playoffs. The owners also don't just want to concede the DH for next CBA.

I doubt roster size will expand, that was really a product of the shortened season and lack of proper spring training the second time around. So long as there's still a COVID IR you can have a taxi squad and/or more easily add AAAA types to the 40 temporarily.

I'm sure some teams legitimately don't want there to be a DH because it adds payroll too, whether competitively (15 more teams could theoretically bid for Nelson Cruz) or just creating pressure to upgrade your 5th OF or second IF bench spot by a a million or two. Even JT's value is affected (and it's a big problem for the Phillies with Cutch, potentially).

[andyb]

I am not saying the rosters should be expanded. It would just be nice to set the rules before player decisions in the offseason. Now they may need more flexibility because of COVID once the season starts, but they can make that decision in April.

[zambonir]

Yeah I just think it is safe to operate in the Rule 5 as if you're going to have 26 players. The DH is another story, but there's a lot more time. For now, if you want to sign Michael Brantley or Howie Kendrick, you make your offer based on the notion that there won't be a DH. And if you're the player, you turn it down for now in the hopes that there will be movement. But that's also win-win for the owners, players will take deals not wanting to get left out and then when the rule is finally confirmed during spring training there will be some bargains left over.