2019-2020 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

[el-pietro]

The idea that we should sit and wait for these potential free agents to become available always rang hollow to me. One of the premier free agents for next season and potential trade targets for 2019 is off the market. Harper just got more valuable.

[allentown]

One of the premier free agents for next season and potential trade targets for 2019 is off the market. Harper just got more valuable

As did the value of MM, whom I still think we should have pushed beyond $300M/10 to sign.

[el-pietro]

100%. Hes a better player than Harper.

[julio]

100%. Hes a better player than Harper.

Irrelevant. Machado is signed. Life is lived looking and moving forward, not bemoaning what "might have been."

[Philsmania]

I guess we'll find out in six years. By then, I suspect Schilling will be in.

Schilling is an interesting case, I think if you take out him being given credit for "leading the Red Sox" to their first championship in 90+ years I suspect he would have come up short, but he has that intangible that will get the vote from non-analytical types

I don't think Schilling gets in on the regular ballot. The BBWA--members of the media--elects HOFers on the regular ballot and Schilling doesn't say terribly friendly things about the media in his political spots.

[allentown]

Irrelevant. Machado is signed. Life is lived looking and moving forward, not bemoaning what "might have been."

Not at all irrelevant to assessing the performance of the Phillies' PTB. Your argument is logically and perversely inconsistent: don't criticize until a deal is done, because we can't know what is actually on the table from us and other teams, but don't criticize after the fact either, because it is now history which cannot be changed. The draft decision was made quite a while ago, but it is still fair to ask "why Moniak, rather than Senzel? If the goal was to accumulate the biggest war chest possible for later picks, the great baseball name, Kieboom, would have been a better choice. We really can only validly evaluate the quality of decision-making of the Phillies TPTB through the rear-view mirror. When do you feel that evaluation and criticism is valid? Never?

[andyb]

Looks like the Arenado deal is 8/260 now. Extra 5 must be some sort of option buyout.

$32.5 million AAV.

[bkeich]

Looks like the Arenado deal is 8/260 now. Extra 5 must be some sort of option buyout.

$32.5 million AAV.

He would have been a nice pickup but not at that price. Good for him, funny since with that expense on their books I doubt the Rockies will ever surround him with a team that might win.

[mdougherty12]

Looks like the Arenado deal is 8/260 now. Extra 5 must be some sort of option buyout.

$32.5 million AAV.

He would have been a nice pickup but not at that price. Good for him, funny since with that expense on their books I doubt the Rockies will ever surround him with a team that might win.

The Rockies have consistently strong attendance numbers and decent TV ratings, and they'll likely get a significant revenue bump when their current terrible TV deal ends next year:

Colorado Rockies: Can a new TV deal keep Nolan Arenado long-term?

[allentown]

He would have been a nice pickup but not at that price.

There comes a time when we must accept that this is what the market is, not 'silly money' but the actual market price. Not a criticism of you, just another example of the Phillies need to recalibrate their thinking.

Now AF may well be correct, or at least my perception of some of his views may be correct, that after home-grown the cheapest source of WAR may be older, but not ancient, mid-level FAs on 1 and 2 year deals That worked in 1993. My fear is that the 1993 team was a one-year wonder and that this may well be an inherent problem with this approach. I guess I also question how much of the budget should go to the bullpen.

[andyb]

Cardinals give Mikolas a 4/68 extension (after this season). This one seems pretty risky to me as an average stuff/solid command guy might fare a bit worse the second time around the league and I am not sure he would have done much better after this season at age 31. Heck, Keuchel is not having much luck at age 31. This is a lot to bet on a 6.5K/9 guy one year in advance.

Source: Cards, Mikolas agree on $68M extension

[zambonir]

We don't have to wait for the Phillies to sign or not sign Harper to say they should have signed Machado, it will just be different kinds of arguments depending on what happens. And this Arenado deal suggests they undervalued Manny. Whether that error is due to their assessment of his talent, of the marketplace, of their own budgetary needs or because they just prefer Harper, we don't know.

But when the GM tells the press "he's not the last free agent who will be on the market" and now one of the two for next year is gone (and the other is more likely to stay with the Nats now that they aren't keeping Harper) it is certainly a valid thing to criticize and speculate on.

[andyb]

Just about every neutral analyst thinks these 10/300 contracts for 26 year old stars are a steal. Now they require profitable teams to establish that market, but when you evolve to a system where you cannot game the draft and international talent any more, sometimes money is the best way to add talent. And baseball's revenue DOES justify spending this on free agent since it is actually hard to spend it on younger players these days. All these analytical models are not accounting for teams making huge profits since the luxury tax line has not gone up anywhere near as fast as baseball revenues.

[zambonir]

I also think Manny is probably better than Arenado given Coors Field, but I guess we'll never know for sure! (And now Manny might be hurt by Petco).

[andyb]

Manny's stats might be hurt by PETCO but his value shouldn't. Arenado has also had solid stats on the road the last 4 years. Remember his home/road splits are affected not just by playing in Coors field. The road parks in that division are heavily pitcher's parks. So his split difference is even greater than just assuming "not Coors".

[zambonir]

Ok, hope the Cubs are bad and there's your deadline deal!

HardballTalk (HardballTalk)

[zambonir]

Manny Machado only just making his Padres debut today.

[donaldorc]

Manny Machado only just making his Padres debut today.

Loser!

[zambonir]

Nats eyeing Kimbrel per MLBTR and Rosenthal (who says maybe even a long-term deal to lower AAV). That would put them back atop the projections but they'd also be without their 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th round picks if they do it.

One funny thing about signing Harper is the Phillies no longer need a LHP to get out Harper (or Murphy. Some other guys, and of course some Braves, though).

[Squire]

My pre-Season playoff picks

NLEast: Phillies
NLCentral: Cubs
NLWest: Rockies
Wildcard 1: Nationals
Wildcard 2: Braves

ALEast: Yankees
ALCentral: Twins
ALWest: Astros
Wildcard 1: Red Sox
Wildcard 2: Indians