2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[David_Criss]

Brewers have a history of going from broke in late July and ending up broke. Even with the Phillies having deep pockets, one player taking up 35 or 40 million could limit them in many areas. During a Machado contract, Nola is not going to be cheap, Hoskins is not going to be cheap, etc. etc.

[andyb]

He has not really said anything about where he wants to play on his free agency deal. All he has said is that we wanted to play SS this year. It is only a theory that he would be offered more money to play SS. If teams think he is not a good SS they will offer more money for him to play 3B. From all reports he is a good kid and a good teammate. I doubt the SS thing will be a huge long term concern as he knows he is a big guy that will lose range as he gets older. There was no reason not to play him at SS this year with the Orioles.

Eflin also had his surgery after 2016. He has said he was only comfortable this year, but a big part of his improvement may be going to 4-seam fastballs rather than 2-seam fastballs. More of a response to all the launch angle stuff than anything else. For whatever reason he is clearly better. We just have no idea how sustainable that is.

[LoneStarPhan]

Just my opinion, but for me, Machado has more value as a third baseman than as a shortstop at this point in his career.

[allentown]

I didn't say that he did say anything about after signing his FA deal. We are talking about this year only -- the rental period. He has said he wants to play SS this year. He clearly is worth less to the Phillies as a SS than as a 3B for the remainder of this season. What I am stressing is that he is legit 2.2 WAR this year, because he stinks as a SS and insists upon playing there. That has to reduce his value as a rental. It especially reduces his value for the Phillies, because unless Kingery is traded for him, Kingery has no place to play.

[andyb]

But we are really not sure he is a bad defensive SS. 56 plays. That is the whole basis for his defensive rating and that is nowhere near enough. The defensive rating is highly flawed.

For us he basically replaces Franco defensively. If he plays SS then Kingery or Crawford would be better defensively than Franco. And if he replaced Franco then we know the lift that would get.

So his half-year value to the Phillies would be greater than 2 WAR because there is team defensive improvement whereever we put him, plus there is uncertainty that he is actually as bad at SS as the limited stats say. Shifts have just made mediocre defensive stats much worse.

[zambonir]

If - huge if - the Phillies did deal Eflin obviously they would have to replace his WAR. Maybe that mostly comes from the two guys (Arrieta and Pivetta) who barely won any games in June. Maybe from a trade. But having Machado at SS and Kingery/Crawford (or even Franco/Crawford) at 3B is obviously a better team, and Machado's bat also buys more leeway for the RFs.

And even if you do make an apples to apples comparison of Machado and Eflin, discounting the defense, it's more likely that Machado finishes the year with 6.0 WAR total than Eflin finishes the year with 5.0 WAR total. Machado's gonna play every day and keep doing what he's doing. Eflin will probably have some bad games or a down month.

Anyway, I'd put a lot more stock in the front office's knowledge of Machado, his agent, and the league then in some theory that if the Phillies don't get to the World Series he'll want to leave. How does that work exactly? He comes here, helps lead them to the NL East title, likes his teammates, likes his manager, loves the front office guys who originally drafted and developed him, and then, what? They lose in the NLDS and the Brewers play the Astros or the Dodgers play the Yankees in the WS so he'll leave for one of those teams (few of whom will even try to get him)? The risk of him staying with whoever gets him seems much higher than that scenario. That doesn't change the fact that the Phillies are only getting him as a rental now, but that's true of every team.

I probably would trade Crawford, if the front office was extremely confident about keeping Machado. But I don't think I would trade him for Machado, unless the rest of the package was negligible. He's more valuable than Eflin IMO, just based on the overall history, even if Eflin is better (and healthier) player this minute.

[andyb]

Note that the Orioles' top prospect pre-draft was Ryan Mountcastle, a 3B who just switched over from SS. He has an 875 OPS in AA this year so could conceivably be with the Os later this year or at some point next year. Thus they probably prefer a SS if they get an IF over a 3B. Their top priority in every rumor has been pitching however. That is why Eflin keeps coming up because I assume they keep asking about him.

[tom81]

That is why Eflin keeps coming up because I assume they keep asking about him.

Do the O’s keep ask about him or is it the media and the fans who keep rehashing this story because they think it makes sense?

[zambonir]

They probably asked about him once. As someone wrote this weekend, sometimes these rumors are no more than a single text message.There's certainly not been a second rumor/source/story. If anything the Crawford rumor is more solid (the one NASN guy claiming he's been included in proposals, whereas the only rumor we have on Eflin is he hasn't been).

[schillingfan]

I realize that a trade deadline buyer is a competitive team that wants to make the playoffs. They, therefore seldom trade a player who has likelihood of helped this year. So trading this year's Eflin for this year's Machado makes no sense. If you are trading for a this year only player, you trade a prospect not likely to be needed this year (remembering September call-ups. If you are trading for the future you don't trade for Machado as you can buy him next year without losing anything for this year or the future.

[LoneStarPhan]

Excellent point, SF.

[zambonir]

It's a unique situation though. At the beginning of the season Eflin was 7th on the depth chart behind Lively and Eickhoff. Now he's the 2nd or 3rd best guy. If you don't think that's what he'll be next year you can afford to move him. Teams do dump people from their roster in deadline deals, it's just that it's usually at the same position.

It was easy for the Phillies to trade Happ because they were trying to get to the World Series for the third time. It's not as easy for this team to trade Eflin or Crawford, and it's not because of what either of them might do over the next 12 weeks.

Right now it seems like the Phillies aren't in on Machado seriously. Key word "seems." But I think the front office's plan is pretty steady. They're not looking to act on emotion, or in the service of big gestures.They want to improve this year's team but also future teams. The "carpe diem" move isn't gonna happen, unless it can be at a price the Phillies like.

[tom81]

Ok if you can get deGrom for a package headlined by Eflin you do it as it’s both an improvement his year and deGrom is under control for two more years after this year. It makes no sense to trade Eflin just for a rental.

[Florida_Sunshine]

That is the only way I would do it also.

No way we should trade our #2 pitcher, that has helped us get to the record we have now, for a short term rental that doesn't move the marker as much as we think.

One other thought, is MM even worth a record setting contract without record setting numbers? Yes, I like him. Yes, we have the money. But, is he the best use of that money? To me, the record setting contract should go to a player that is a record setting player, leading the league in in some fashion in hits, runs, HR, RBI. Is that MM?

[phillychuck]

So, in the off-season, Machado appears to be a top option as a position player. The following are listed as free agents next year:

Name (age) pos

Machado (26) SS/3B
Harper (25) OF
Pollock (30) OF
Brantley (31) OF
Ramos (30) C
E. Escobar (29) SS
Reynolds (34) 3B
Adams (29) 1B

Machado commands an historic contract because of his age combined with production. Don't know that we can sign Matt Adams, who I think is limited to 1B, and is having a career year that could be an outlier. Is Harper an option for us? Ramos might be a bargain... Escobar is a good fit if we miss on Machado.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Phillychuck,

I understand and agree with what you are saying. My whole problem is with the record setting contract that baseball seems to think MM has already earned. So many of these contracts end up being bad, and I am not talking about at the end of the term.

We have patiently waited and developed a lot of our young talent. We have more promising prospects in the pipeline. We have money that few other teams have. In my mind, to tie up a huge chunk of it on a player like MM, instead of a player like Trout for instance, will likely come back to haunt us.

I am enjoying our unexpected success this year, but don't think we are so close that MM puts us over the top. Especially if we give up one of our best starting pitchers.

[andyb]

The history of long contracts signed by 25 and 26 year olds is pretty limited. Think guys like Arod because they came up when they were 19 or 20. Those players have tended to age pretty well (there are exceptions like Andrew Jones). Miguel Cabrera who is mediocre now earned 48.2 WAR from his age 26-35 season. Even Andruw Jones earned 25.2 WAR. ARod earned 67.1 WAR.

Now ARod is better than Machado. Cabrera is closer though (better offensively, less good defensively). Who is to say that one should not value a 10 year contract at around 40 WAR. And conservatively that means about $400 million since the price of WAR should not go down long term. Is there injury risk that could push the contract down a bit? Sure. And there are luxury cap pressures that are a bit more now than in the past. So maybe $350 million is where the contract should end up.

The main point is that long term contracts for 25-26 year old hitters have turned out to be pretty good. Pitchers get hurt and become a lesser version of theirselves much more often. The key is buying age seasons 26-35 and not 31-40.

[David_Criss]

is MM even worth a record setting contract without record setting numbers? Yes, I like him. Yes, we have the money. But, is he the best use of that money?

Agree 100%. I get it MM is a very rare player and opportunity. Would I be beyond excited if he signed with the Phillies in the off season - you bet? But I hate the idea of one player taking what could be 1/5 of a 25-man roster when some young players are going to need to be paid in the near future - Nola, Hoskins, etc. Is MM worth that 1/5 of a payroll? That is the question. Even 1/6th?

If Eflin is the price to rent him for this year, I hope they pass.

[phillychuck]

Would MM's contract be tradeable in 2-3 years? If so it's OK, because you can trade him to pay Hoskins, etc. Frontload the contract if needed.

[EDmuch]

Quite to the contrary, if we wish to compete for the NL East This year (and I think the FO would like to do that) we have no choice but to make a big move for a bat. This double header against the Mets of all teams demonstrated that we just do not have the hitters to compete long term with the Dodgers, Brewers or Cubs. I mean, they can stand pat and see what happens, but I think realistically they have to make a move if they want to compete for the post season this year.

And it does not have to be Elfin. Heck if De Los Santos has a good game tonite, he, combined with Medina could be a very attractive part of the MM deal.