2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[Squire]

The 2008 Phillies had 2 guys not named Utley who won the National League MVP in the two preceding years. They weren't stars? Who knew.

[California_Dreamin]

AF...Victorino? And Howard and Rollins were very much stars on the 2008 team, heck Rollins was coming off an MVP season and Howard had as recently as 2006 hit over 50 home runs.

You need at least one big star, a guy that can say,"boys, climb on my back for awhile." This was what I felt MM would have given the Phils....Hoskins, Scottie, Alfaro, Crawford, Herrera and Williams all would have benefited from having a major bat in the middle of the order.

[julio]

Thanks Julio for getting me back on.

Umm... You're welcome? Which is to say, "I have no idea what you're talking about, but I'm glad you're here."

[julio]

Oh, please, I am not sure I [we!] could all go through this again! I am unsure how many napkins I have ruined over the past 2-3 days

Umm... Is that the British usage of the word "napkin"? (Sorry; first thing that came to mind when I read this!)

[Florida_Sunshine]

I’m thinking we send him some notepads for Christmas?

[zambonir]

AF...Victorino? And Howard and Rollins were very much stars on the 2008 team, heck Rollins was coming off an MVP season and Howard had as recently as 2006 hit over 50 home runs.

You need at least one big star, a guy that can say,"boys, climb on my back for awhile." This was what I felt MM would have given the Phils....Hoskins, Scottie, Alfaro, Crawford, Herrera and Williams all would have benefited from having a major bat in the middle of the order.

I would not call Vic a star. Or Werth. But they both had some big seasons. And Rollins and Howard definitely.

But if Vic and Werth are stars, that just goes to show you stars can be acquired and developed via unexpected ways. And they can also be drafted in the 2nd and 5th round (Rollins,Howard).

Manny would be a great get, given his age and position and the history our front office has with him. But there are others paths. Including trades, and waiting for guys to develop.

And Hoskins is the guy who needs to be a star. If he's not, they surely do need a good consistent power bat going forward, the IF is not providing that and as promising as Williams is he's probably not going to be that either (just a nice piece a la Marlon Byrd).

[andyb]

Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge were stars also on that 2008 team. Lidge has less WAR because of the few innings of a reliever, but in terms of positional rankings he was the best in baseball that year. Plus we should also remember in that we were not the top team in the league in 2008. We added more stars in 2009 and 2010 to win more games.

While it is true that every WAR matters and teams cannot ignore any position, it is also equally true that they need stars. Stars make the lineup around them better because of the effort a pitcher needs to expend to get them out. Stars can also pitch more innings in the rotation and in more high leverage situations from the bullpen - little things that don't necessarily contribute to more WAR (a pitcher constantly going 7 or 8 innings might give up some runs - but help the bullpen with less overuse and overexposure) but do contribute to better teams and more wins.

IMO it is a significant blow to not get Machado if we could have done it for Medina and 3 or 4 lesser prospects. Machado's impact on our lineup and our defense would have been synergistic. It is a lost opportunity that probably will be hard to replace and patch together with a lesser 3B and pitching help.

[allentown]

It was an off year for Howard, but he was in the middle of a 6-year stretch, which saw him with OPS+ from 125 to 167. Also not Rollins' best season and the last of his very good year s, but he still had a EAR of +5.5 -- to me that is star value, and was ending a 5-year span in which he averaged 5 WAR a season. Lidge had one of the top seasons for a reliever of that decade -- he hadn't done nearly as well before or since, but he was a star in 2008. Hamels ERA+ of 143 and WAR of 4.3 and almost equally good the prior year makes him a near star,

I don't see Santana as such an inspired addition and the path the Phillies should follow (as AF does) -- he's got an OPS+ of only 102 and is on track for a WAR of about 1.5. We got Arrietta, which was the big get, so I don't mind Santana. We spent a lot on expensive relievers who haven't helped at all.

[zambonir]

It is a lost opportunity that probably will be hard to replace and patch together with a lesser 3B and pitching help.

For sure, but you are talking about as a rental. No question there's no one better out there. (And we have no idea if that Medina + package would have gotten it done, especially since they preferred a position player headlining the deal).

But if they miss on him in free agency there will be options we can't possibly know about yet.

[schillingfan]

When I read Austinfan's post about the 2008 team, I scratched my head at Felix and had to look him up. While I am almost social security eligible, It does show that a team can win a WFC with some holes.

[schillingfan]

Oh, please, I am not sure I [we!] could all go through this again! I am unsure how many napkins I have ruined over the past 2-3 days

Umm... Is that the British usage of the word "napkin"? (Sorry; first thing that came to mind when I read this!)

Ouch. And here I was reluctant to make a joke about what my eyes see when I read the Clearwater Threshers are playing the Tampa Tarpons.

[Philsmania]

Not getting Machado is definitely a missed opportunity for 2018 as it would have made us the favorites to win the division and, as they say, hey, you never know what might happen if you get to play in October. Sometimes a team just gets perfectly hot at the perfect time and wins it all even if it is not the best team on paper when the October field is set (see the 2011 Cards). Yes, getting Machado would have opened the window of opportunity in 2018.

But, saying that him playing here in 2018 would have given us a leg up on the competition in the free agency derby this winter is pure unsubstantiated conjecture, or just another "hey, you never know". The risks, at the same time, were eminently real, sending away top prospects for what ends up being just a rental and a 2018 season which ends up short of the Postseason or with October disappointment (because, as I said, hey, you never know what might happen if you get to play in October, see the 2011 Phillies). It would be just as possible that we show up in Clearwater next February with no delightful October 2018 memories to live on, no more Machado and fewer prospects coming up. That is why I erred on the side of not giving away the pharm, pun intended.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Howard had 48 HR, 146 RBI. That is a star....

[Austinfan]

Howard hit .251, .881 OPS, yet only 1.8 WAR (BR) in 2008. His fielding and baserunning was that bad.
Santana has 0.8 WAR which projects to about 1.4 WAR.

Point is simply that you can add guys like Howard in free agency pretty easily.
Rollins (5.5) had a big WAR season primarily based on defense, which also helped Victorino (4.4).

MM would be a nice addition, but there are numerous ways to skin this cat.
If Crawford is a plus fielding SS, he just has to get his OPS > .750.
If Kingery can regain his hitting touch and move to 2B, he could be a major player.
Alfaro has unlimited potential on both defense and offense, worth waiting a few years to develop.
Hoskins will eventually move to 1B, if he settles in offensively, he can be far more valuable than Howard.
And so on, some of this improvement needs to be internal, some from strategic acquisitions.

It is nice to have stars, but you can also dominate with a lineup with no weaknesses - i.e. that keeps the pressure on every inning. So if you can't land/develop the outlier, you develop solid starters and use FA to fill a hole or two (and keep Polanco).

[LegoDoom]

I'm guessing that AF has an odd definition of "star" in order to dismiss a potential HoFer like Rollins as not a top player.

[andyb]

Defense clearly does not count - unless it is to say a star offensive player like Howard is bad. Stars DO matter. They make their teammates better. Our offense really needs a star. We really do not have a good cleanup hitter to knock in runs with all the positive OBP we are generating. It is clearly an offense missing a piece.

[zambonir]

It's done (this is follow-up tweet)

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[fish]

Seems like a lot of crap after Diaz, that makes it a bit more disappointing. Phils couldn’t top Diaz, but surely the other pieces would have been better.

[Patchmk88]

Didn’t even get the good pitching prospect that was rumored. Haven’t checked out these other guys other than Diaz.

[zambonir]

If there's any truth to Medina being the Phillies key piece I would assume they didn't offer much that was better beyond him either. They were probably never going to make that rumored deal, not even for Britton too.