2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[zambonir]

And if he's not right about roster regression that could be 92-93 wins, especially if they also make other upgrades.

To chase the wild card, they shouldn't give up a lot. But if the division is in play...

I still think the deal they make in the end, whoever it's for, will be more like what the M's gave up for Cliff Lee than what the Phillies got for Hamels (and even in that trade Thompson and Williams were not the first choices).

[Lawman]

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

[David_Criss]

What is the over and under the Phillies trade for a starter in advance of the July 9 opening? Good bet it is a lefty if they add a starter with Duffey, Minor, Hamels, Happ, Liriano and Richard being discussed.

[zambonir]

I'd bet against that. The value of having a starter for just that one game is lower than the value of waiting out the market (or even paying a salary for two more weeks, though in the Phillies' case that shouldn't matter). Who knows, if the right early deal came along.... but I don't think they can deal for a starting pitcher until they know what they gave up for a bat (and a reliever might come first too).

[California_Dreamin]

Naw, the Phils aren't worried about July 9th and for goodness sakes, Thompson is not the worst option in the world. He was solid Sunday and I still think he is a potential asset for the team. Maybe its because I see so much of Gavin Floyd in him but I really believe if they ever simply gave Thompson a true opportunity to simply relax and pitch, he would be fine.

Look, I know he has some hellaciously bad games but it seems every time he has one, he gets optioned down. Who could perform well under those circumstances? Floyd was the same way, was eventually traded and then went on to a solid career in Chicago.

For once, just let Thompson get comfortable for a month or so and see what he becomes. He has been very good at LHV, seems to be throwing harder and had all the talent in the world a couple of years ago.

Let him start on the 9th and tell him to go as long as he can. I suspect he would do just fine.

[zambonir]

My guess is Jake Thompson is, if anything, the next Ryan Madson, not the next Gavin Floyd (unless it's because he gets traded). He's a reliever now, and a spot start is unlikely to change that. Would be fine to see if he could give you four or even five innings but given how Kapler uses his bullpen that would mean not having a reliever available that day (even though you do get the 26th guy).

Depending on how Garcia and Ramos are doing there could be lot of bullpen shuffling between now and then anyway. Thompson or Leiter will likely give them innings in a game at some point and then get sent back down for a fresh arm. They're not being punished for pitching badly, that is just the role they are being asked to fill (and at least they both beat out Hutchison).

[David_Criss]

Matt Gelb reporting Ryan Goins has signed with the LeHigh Valley squad. Me thinks this is a precursor to the next move.

[julio]

Matt Gelb reporting Ryan Goins has signed with the LeHigh Valley squad. Me thinks this is a precursor to the next move.

It appears to have been a precursor to releasing Alexi Amarista - which occurred immediately after Goins signed.

What are you thinking? Cesar Hernandez and JP Crawford to the Orioles for Machado?

[zambonir]

Yeah I think they just need bodies with Valentin up and Crawford and Florimon both hurt.

[nycphils]

I don’t have any issue with a deal, even for Machado as a rental, but reflecting on where we are today, I don’t want to gut the system for anything. I think it is good where we are, but I do think the optimism is a bit too high regarding the team’s record. It’s good, but mostly a product of having a 17-7 record in one run games, which is bound to turn around somewhat (as we saw on the flip side last year). Some of it is a product of a team with good pitching but poor offense, but a decent portion is just luck. Don’t want the farm gutted in the wake of that.

[Lawman]

@jonmorosi just said on MLB Network that if the Orioles asked for Zach Eflin in a Manny Machado trade the Phillies would NOT accept that offer.

[andyb]

@jonmorosi just said on MLB Network that if the Orioles asked for Zach Eflin in a Manny Machado trade the Phillies would NOT accept that offer.

Given their lack of pitching depth I wonder what an offer built around De Los Santos and maybe Lively might bring. Of course I imagine they will want Crawford too (while we offer Franco).

[tom81]

I would include Eflin in a trade for Trout or Judge, not many others and certainly not for a rental.

[andyb]

Though a year ago you might have said that about Eickhoff and included Eflin in just about any possible deal.

While the optics of trading a young arm who is pitching well are bad, the reality is probably that Eflin is one of 4-5 depth arms we have that can easily fill the back 2 spots in the rotation. It is possible that Eflin could be overvalued in today's market which might make him one to trade (like De Los Santos). This is not me advocating to trade him - just realizing that if we want Machado (and potentially a relief arm packaged with him) then we are going to have to give up something significant. If we decide not to give up something significant we probably get Moustakas rather than Machado.

[Lawman]

All this talk of looking for bats for the 3B or SS positions, and yet RF remains an offensive liability as well. Perhaps it would be easier/cheaper to strike a deal for a RF player?

[zambonir]

RF is a tough one. Do you completely give up on Altherr and just get another RHB to share time with Williams? Do you include Williams or Altherr in one of the trades if you go for a starting-caliber OF (Williams only if it's for a controllable SP or OF)? So long as Kapler wants his big bullpen it's a little harder to accomodate everyone (though if Franco or Crawford are included in a trade that eases one logjam).

If you did have to trade a current member of the rotation right now, would you rather lose Eflin or Velasquez? Or Pivetta for that matter.

Either way, I don't think the Phillies can do that unless they have their other move worked out at the same time. You can't trade Eflin for Machado and then just hope a deal for Hamels (or Duffy, or whomever) works out. But if you are going after a starter who will be here next year (or beyond) you definitely can afford to lose one of the current guys.

[allentown]

Trading a serious asset for a rental, whether done by the Phillies or the Sixers, would be a big mistake IMHO -- the sort of mistake which could significantly set back the rebuild. I'm in the minority, but I see both Eflin and De Lost Santos (and Sixto) as serious assets not to be traded. I'd rather trade Crawford than one of those 3.

[California_Dreamin]

While I agree that Eflin should NOT be included in any non contract extension deal involving MM, I found the news promising because it indicates that the give and take normally involved before a deal takes place has now accelerated.

I understand that on a cursory level this has already been taking place but it sounds to me like the Phils/Orioles talks are now getting serious as it involves players. Look, it well be that the Phils don't get any of MM, Britton or Hamels but right now, from where I sit, it is just as likely that they do.

I know its still incredibly hard to believe [I sure didn't expect it] but this Phillie team, with the additions of MM, Britton and Hamels, could very well not only win the division...but get to the World Series. I have already mentioned how I believe MM would help this young Phillie lineup immensely but adding Hamels to the rotation would like push VV to the bullpen and having him and Dominguez as a lights out duo might prove devastating.

Add Britton to the equation [and I believe he pitched yesterday so the Phils could watch him throw] and this Phillie staff could be playoff tough. Hamels has pitched very well this year away from his home Texas park and I think a Nola-Hamels-Arrieta trio would be very impressive.

These next 11 games are SO important. If the Phils can stay within 2-3 games of the Braves [not to mention the possibility of moving into first place] I think Middleton almost implores Klentak to take a few risks.

The Phils are thisclose to winning back the phans and as zambonir mentioned before, Manny would own Philadelphia, not to mention the love affair that Hamels has with the town.

I do expect the D'back/Dodger rivalry to cause both of them to explore a Manny deal and I certainly think it is within the realm of possibility that the O's owner might not want Manny dealt to a team on the East Coast but, goodness gracious, it is easy to close your eyes and envision a scenario where MM, Britton AND Hamels are wearing Phillie uniforms by the end of the month.

[zambonir]

I'm more with andyb, while it's important to have quantity as well as quality, all these guys can't pitch for the Phillies, and they all can't pan out either. The trick, of course, is not moving the wrong guy, and also getting value at the right time. Two years ago it would have seemed unthinkable to trade Eickhoff, or even Thompson. Last year Eshelman was probably not untouchable, but he's a guy we wanted around.

If the Phillies are going to add a starter this year or next year (or get someone now who can stay) at least one of these guys is going to be unneeded, even if you also move VV to the bullpen (a pretty intriguing notion at this point for sure).

But, it's also not gonna bother me if the Phillies come up short on Manny while one of the NL West teams overpays for him. We shall see how the market plays out. The next 11 games aren't going to matter either way, whether the Phillies go 4-7 or 7-4 they're still going to be in the mix, for the division as well as the WC.

I'm also not going to mind watching Washington trade away assets to try and desperately win during Harper's possible last season (and for their 90something owner). The Braves are likely to be more conservative but that is all the more reason for the Phillies to not be passive.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...I agree with much you say but disagree with you about the importance of the next 11 games, it does matter. If there is one thing we know its that the Phils are now analytics driven, almost obsessively so. With that in mind they probably have processed in their minds that a Machado might be a +3 in the won lost column over the final 70 games based on what others on this site have written.

So it is important that the Phils stay within 3-4 games of the Braves as the All-Star break approaches. While not the most difficult road trip they have ever encountered, their recent history in both Pittsburgh and New York have not been that successful and this trend needs to change.

I may be wrong but I think Klentak/McPhail are following this final road trip with extreme interest. I also believe that if a MM deal does take place, Medina will be one of the pieces.