2018 Season MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

zambonir 2018-04-16 18:51:28 UTC #21

Only been three weeks since this one

Six respondents predicted that Harper will surpass $400 million, and multiple insiders think he will at the very least surpass Giancarlo Stanton's MLB-record $325 million deal with the Miami Marlins.

It's worth noting that Machado, with a big walk year, could outearn Harper on the open market. Machado turns 26 this summer, has three All-Star Games on his résumé, plays a premium defensive position and has appeared in 475 of a possible 486 games since 2015. Machado's agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, negotiated Albert Pujols' $240 million contract with the Angels and Joey Votto's $225 million agreement with the Reds, so he has a track record for landing mega-deals.

mdougherty12 2018-04-16 19:01:27 UTC #22

Donaldson is a great hitter, but he turns 33 in December, missed ~50 games last season, and is already on the DL this year. I wonder how long he'll be able to stay at 3B.

andyb 2018-04-16 19:10:13 UTC #23

Early one was surveying reporters. New one is more analytics.

On Harper I just think the projections don't fully account for his value. His injuries have been a little freakish (like running into walls) and Machado's (knee surgeries) may be more long term than the short term statistics imply. And that would lower Machado's defensive value.

Then I also come down to the point that everyone pitches around Harper now and they don't do it as much to Machado (in an inferior lineup). I'd feel safer with either in a DH league over 8+ years, but Harper is just the better bat to me.

andyb 2018-04-16 19:11:00 UTC #24

That is why it is 5 and not 8 years for a lower average price.

Austinfan 2018-04-16 19:28:06 UTC #25

Baseball economics are changing with analytics, don't be surprised if we don't see the same thing we saw this offseason, where the big numbers aren't as big as expected.
It's one thing to sign a play to "win now" and eat a couple seasons, quite another to eat 3-4 seasons.

andyb 2018-04-16 19:49:05 UTC #26

It is another thing though to win fewer games because you decide to spend less money. There is not a simplistic answer that analytics has changed everything. Clearly the market this winter was different but much of that is coupled together with issues like the luxury tax and waiting for the better free agent class. The fact is though, that revenues are not going down. Maybe they won't rise 10% each year, but they will rise and I would guess that 5% is a reasonable prediction.

That money needs to go somewhere. Under the current system it will go largely to older players. Maybe future systems will rightfully channel more of it towards younger players but that is not the system we have now. If the only way to add wins without giving up prospects is to sign free agents, then the money will eventually go to those free agents.

Austinfan 2018-04-16 20:09:25 UTC #27

More teams are staying out of the free agent market and rebuilding, because you can't buy enough wins to make a big jump, and this reduces the number of suitors with "cap room" to bid up salaries.

And with analytics, GMs can see how past contracts worked out, and identify the sweet spot both where contracts have positive expected value and where they have a high probability of working in a "win now" strategy.

Analytics have also identified that there's a post-PED drop in performance by older players, which has discouraged long-term deals for players over 30, but also ultra-long contracts (out to age 40) for younger players.

zambonir 2018-04-16 20:20:22 UTC #28

Not reporters.

43 general managers, assistant GMs, personnel directors and scouts

Everyone knows Boras wants to break that record for biggest contract, and Machado might too. But we also saw how things went this year. Will the return of the big $ teams to the market change that? We shall see. Machado changing teams (which would mean no QO and perhaps, getting re-signed by his new team) will also have an impact.

BostonRoss 2018-04-16 22:38:12 UTC #29

The game in Toronto was postponed even though they play in a dome. (Or maybe because everyone will be watching the Maple Leafs.)

andyb 2018-04-16 22:45:42 UTC #30

Attendance is way down. Earlier start and weather delays obviously did not help, but some argue that this is also related to the so-called tanking around the league. Maybe pace of play too. The Phillies are down though that is more due to WHO we have played at home so far.

https://sports.yahoo.com/10-degrees-mlbs-enormous-attendance-drop-due-bad-weather-something-far-worse-baseball-152051024.html

andyb 2018-04-17 14:55:36 UTC #31

Interesting story on Jordan Hicks, a guy that is not all that different from Sixto Sanchez (though almost 2 years older). Sixto might have a little more command of his pitches, but there are definitely some physical similarities. By no means would I advocate for promoting Sixto to the majors any time soon, but I also would think about it if we were into August competing for a playoff spot and Sixto was pitching well in Reading. I clearly want to develop Sixto as a starter also, but playoff competition might demand some out of the box thinking.

mdougherty12 2018-04-19 00:51:25 UTC #32

I hadn't realized that Jose Bautista wasn't on an MLB roster. I was also unaware of how bad he was last season.

BostonRoss 2018-04-19 01:53:45 UTC #33

I wish Bautista had been playing 3B for the Braves tonight.

tom81 2018-04-20 02:51:03 UTC #34

It’s April 19th and Baltimore is 11 games behind Boston already, 12 in the loss column. That is hard to fathom.

xogfog 2018-04-20 03:11:15 UTC #35

If Baltimore is so far out by the trade deadline, they will certainly looking to move Machado I know he really wants to test free agency, but if I were the Phils, I'd still take the gamble to trade for him and hope you can make a good enough impression on him that he would sign the following year, and if not you'd at least get a high comp pick and make a run at Harper.

mdougherty12 2018-04-20 04:44:14 UTC #36

Players traded during the season are not subject to qualifying offers, and consequently don’t have comp picks attached.

xogfog 2018-04-20 05:02:01 UTC #37

Oh, right, I forgot those changes in the new CBA. Then it would be a huge risk to trade for him, and it appears Machado is really hell bent on testing free agency. Well I wonder if with these new compensation rules, if teams will pay as much in trade value for pending free agents.

andyb 2018-04-20 16:08:38 UTC #38

The Ringer on the minor league pay problem. Interesting comparisons to the other sports is that the NBA G league now has a $35,000 minimum and the AHL is at $47,500. Looks pretty bad when baseball is about $6,000 (and less in the short season leagues).

allentown 2018-04-20 16:43:37 UTC #39

Minor league baseball has FAR more players per organization than any other sport, so they are unlikely to every match these other leagues, but it is still a disgrace that they fall as far short as they do, especially once guys get beyond the rookie leagues.

Austinfan 2018-04-20 21:23:36 UTC #40

AHL is equivalent to AAA ball.
So the rest is junior (amateur hockey which is expensive for families) v lower minors (where low salaries but equipment, food, etc. provided by teams).
Hockey players tend to play two junior seasons where they don't get paid before going to the AHL.
A few sign an ELC, but it doesn't start (get a salary) until they finish junior hockey. How bonus payments are handled I don't know.