Discussion

andyb 2018-02-28 16:15:39 UTC #141

I get why there is an advantage for the left fielder and right fielder to switch positions. If we allow shifts and a 3B to shift to the other side of 2B then we have to allow OF shifts.

But this can't be good for the time and pace of games. Do we need a "between batter pitch clock" of sorts. So it will be kind of like NFL substitutions with a 40-second running game clock. I want to see Altherr and Hoskins sprinting back and forth to their new positions....

allentown 2018-02-28 16:43:14 UTC #142

Even if a change is going to bring long term results, there are going to be growing pains, during which performance declines. The ideal time for that is AAA. The second best time is ST. For new draftees/international signees, this is handled in FIL, but when you are trying to change a system from bottom to top, a lot of older, less adaptable players will also be impacted. ST gives a very short time interval to try to accomplish the changes. If significant changes are made to a lot of players, then a slow start to the regular season should not come as a great surprise.

allentown 2018-02-28 16:45:23 UTC #143

It's months ago, so my memory is a bit fuzzy, but I think I recall that the minor league pitch clock did run between batters. I forget if the time interval was a little longer. There was a longer clock, which ran for the pitcher warmups between innings.

zambonir 2018-02-28 16:47:53 UTC #144

"Be bold" may just be a catch phrase but yeah, Kapler said he literally told guys he didn't care it they made outs right now. Process over results. And ultimately, I don't think the Astros, or the Dodgers and the Cubs (who both come from the same family tree as Kapler, Andrew Friedman) have struggled with analytics. Will just take time. Given a rookie manager, a young team and the undoing of at least 25 years of institutional philosophy, it won't really bother me if it takes them half the regular season to adjust, never mind the wild card fantasies of a 66-win team (plus, if last year's second-half was really something to put your chips on the manager who did it would still be here).

Anyway, new and scary things are just a natural thing to wonder/worry about, a sloppy first week of spring training under an entirely new but more traditional coaching staff would probably be happening anyway.

Certainly there are some players who might do better with a less cerebral approach, and if they are good enough players and that works for them, great. Right now though I'm not sure there's anyone on the Phillies roster who is established/talented enough to make that claim.

allentown 2018-02-28 17:54:01 UTC #145

I ask myself if all of this makes me wish Pete was still the manager. Not for a second. The Phillies have been bad since 2012. It is better to try something new. Even if it blows up, like the Chip Kelly experiment did for the Eagles, dramatic change can lead to something dramatically better, as it just did for the Eagles. A necessary step one is almost always to shake up the stale, old way, which aren't working. That's why I've never been that happy with the MacPhail choice. He is far to old school and far too into fighting the commissioner's wars.

bkeich 2018-02-28 20:39:38 UTC #146

Yea, I agree with you, but I fear "the process". Before it was that we werent going to really make progress because Klentak needed a year to evaluate what he had. Now Kapler needs time (maybe a season) to evaluate and to learn to manage. My issue is that if we keep in this cycle our "new core" will age into Free Agency and we will be back to the beginning again. At some point we have to try and make some progress, not just in understanding what we have but to actually win games.

Last year I put up a poll of how long this will all take, and many (most?) people said this year or next. Now we are starting to look like it will be a couple of seasons at least.

This next offseason will be VERY telling, but to be honest I think that is what many people were saying 1 year ago. Now we took an offseason off (except adding 1 player and a couple rental veteran relievers). It shouldnt take 10 years to rebuild a team, but we are going to push that boundry if we arent careful. In the meantime the owners, despite what this board thinks, continue to have the most profitable franchise without really doing much to try and win.

Austinfan 2018-02-28 21:14:00 UTC #147

I'm not worried at all.

First, much of this is just ST playing around, it has little lasting impact for good or evil, but it keeps players engaged

Second, the real impact of analytics will be on personnel decision making, from scouting and the amateur draft to trades, free agents, and promoting players through the system - that will take years to be seen.

Third, the hidden impact will be if Kapler and his staff have better ideas concerning player development, it's not like Stairs for example wasn't preaching many of the same things, but Kapler's people may be better at getting the message across - or quicker at identifying players who are unreachable and having Klentak get rid of them.

donaldorc 2018-02-28 21:28:39 UTC #148

Velásquez put in his typical Jekel and Hyde performance today.

zambonir 2018-02-28 22:32:48 UTC #149

I think the slowdown of the rebuild was more due to the talent,which you can also pin on development (or scouting). But two years ago the expectation was Franco would be a stalwart, Crawford and Williams would already have a season under their belt and we'd have more than one pitcher locked in. Klentak is not moving any more slowly than Theo did in Chicago, or Luhnow did in Houston, even if we wish this was the year they made the big move the way the Cubs did with Lester.

And there still has to be improvement this year. It's not a mulligan season.But a sloppy spring training or a slow start would not be shocking. It's also possible things click spectacularly and we'll revel in winning streaks full of launch angles and outfield shifts and fifth-inning relievers.

Lucky_Beagle 2018-02-28 22:33:04 UTC #150

Why is it such a big deal to switch Cowgrill and Joseph from right to left field depending upon the batter? What are the odds either of them see any outfield time for the Phillies this year let alone both of them? I get it if its Hoskins and Williams or Altherr but 2 unlikely to make the team players?

andyb 2018-02-28 22:53:55 UTC #151

Because the move is only needed when one outfielder is worse defensively than the other. And that outfielder among the anticipated regulars is Hoskins so by saying they will do it with Joseph they are essentially saying they will do with with Hoskins too. Altherr is certainly much better than Hoskins. Whether the team considers the difference between Hoskins and Williams large enough to do this will be an interesting question to answer.

Lucky_Beagle 2018-02-28 23:04:29 UTC #152

The point I wanted to make is what difference does it make with these 2 outfielders are switched during a meaningless spring training game. Also wouldn't they want to give Joseph as many chances to field a ball as possible during these meaningless games if he is being given a test run in the outfield.

zambonir 2018-02-28 23:08:50 UTC #153

I mean, you're both right. This is what spring training is for (even if they do charge people to watch - at least you're not forced to, like in other sports!).

But at the same time, yes, it telegraphs that they will do it with Hoskins. It will always depend on the batter, situation and the pitcher's plan too.

And there's almost always one OF worse than the other. If Williams is in LF they could still do it. Really, it's only the "switch" that makes it seem like a big deal, it's reallly just a shift like any other except with the bigger OF you're still trying to cover a little (but not much) of LF, as opposed to an IF shift where you leave the whole side open.

allentown 2018-02-28 23:25:06 UTC #154

It sets it up as the new philosophy, not a dig at Hoskins for something that they adopt just because they expect his fielding to stink. It avoids totally singling him out. It probably also pushes the boundary and sets them up for avoiding in-season time-wasting complaints.

Lucky_Beagle 2018-02-28 23:34:45 UTC #155

This makes sense to me, I get the logic of doing with a bunch of bench players, so that if we do it with the regulars its just continuing what was already started.

zambonir 2018-03-01 06:04:24 UTC #156

I think it's important to remember, too, that guys like Gott, Thomson (especially) and even Wathan bring a ton of experience and "traditional" mindset (whether they embrace it or not). Also, I think it is great that the Phillies are going to knock down the wall between analytics and the dugout. I don't think the former works as well if the players just think it's math homework.Hearing about it from Sam Fuld or Chris Young will make a difference, IMO.

andyb 2018-03-01 17:27:04 UTC #157

Fangraphs on the Phillies defensive OF switches:

Key line though suggests this may not become that big a thing: "Last season, 29.1% of line drives and fly balls were pulled, 36.1% were hit to center, and 34.8% were hit to the opposite field. That’s in comparison to ground balls, 53.7% of which were pulled last season, 33.6% hit to center, and 12.7% to the opposite field."

I would imagine the harder hit OF balls are still pulled, but the lower volume compared to the infield means teams cannot get a huge advantage doing this a great deal. Certain hitters maybe, but there is little evidence one would do this for all L/R hitters.

zambonir 2018-03-01 17:48:42 UTC #158

Yeah, it's not gonna happen often.I'm sure there is a threshold on the spray chart where they consider it, and another threshold where it becomes likely, and then you still have to make a situational decision. It was kind of funny that they did it to that particularly player, I believe he had never played above AA, but Kapler had three years of minor league data on him.It was a low-risk experiment in terms of both the hitter and the fielders.

andyb 2018-03-01 18:03:53 UTC #159

I am not even sure they cared about the data or the spray chart. I think it is probably more about preparing players to be alert for all types of shifts at all times. It needs to become second nature in terms of habits (like checking for signs when on base).

zambonir 2018-03-01 18:11:22 UTC #160

Well, they said they did, but I hear you. Still, if they do it in real games it will certainly be because of the data. And it makes sense to know it's going to happen in advance, though I would think pitcher/baserunners would still have to be considered too.

Just before the game against Detroit, the specific details were unveiled: If Victor Reyes — a 23-year-old switch-hitter who has never played above Double-A — batted left-handed against the Phillies, Cowgill and Joseph would switch positions in the outfield.

The Phillies put Joseph, the weaker defender, on the pull side Tuesday for Reyes. Cowgill, the better defender, played the opposite field because the data said Reyes does not hit the ball in the air to right field with a high frequency.

The Phillies have Trackman data from most minor leagues through sharing agreements with other franchises. That is how they scouted Reyes, a Rule 5 pick for the Tigers.