2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

I strongly believe that what is causing the logjam with Harper is that both the Nationals and Phillies have communicated they will top the offer of the other. The Phils want Harper, but even more they don't want him in the lineup for their division rival. And I think the Nats' attitude is exactly the same.

And so the stand-off continues . . .

[zambonir]

If you believe Nightengale the Nats are out. I don't know that I believe him (plus it could change) but if he already turned down $300 million from them as well as whatever offer they made over the holidays how much higher can they go? I don't think the Phillies have made an offer that good because there isn't actually another one on the table anymore.

Given the recent news about Eickhoff I think he's automatically 7th, and probably was anyway until he shows he can pitch. I think Squire's list underrates Velasquez too who is probably still better than Eflin (dunno that he's better than Arrieta but it was certainly close late-season). They are all basically number 5s until they show they can do it all year.

[bigegypt0417]

If you believe Nightengale the Nats are out.

I've stopped listening to nightingale on anything. he seems to me to be a fraud.

[zambonir]

My suspicion is Nightengale is an old-school pro who realized he had to get into the rumor biz to keep up with the Morosis and Rosenthals of the world, but in doing so he plays a lot looser with his sourcing. At least with Heyman he is still pretty well-reported, and you can usually glean his agenda.

Also FWIW I don't think Nightengale ever published or tweeted that statement, it was someone else tweeting about something he said on the radio. A lot less accountablity there.

But as I just said in the other thread I still think the Phillies prefer Machado.

I do tend to think the Nats are out inasmuch as, there won't be a hometown discount, more like a, "you should have signed me when you had the chance so now you must pay." And the team is the taking the opposite tack, "you should have taken the $300 million (which was not really that high, supposedly super-deferred) and now you will take less."

[flyers19rw]

Lerner likes to pay with deferred money. Bryce might want to get paid with today's cash. Can't blame him.

[andyb]

Fangraphs chat comment from Jay Jaffe:

"I think it’s really down to 2 paths:
* Machado signs with Philly and Harper chooses either the Nationals or the Padres.
* Harper signs with Philly and Machado chooses either the White Sox or the Padres."

In that situation the Phillies are the key team and any team that can match them for $$$ is out. I think there is a strong chance the first of the two signs this weekend and if I had to guess it is the player more interested in dollars since in that scenario laid out above it might be the first player signed that gets the larger contract. Most had all been assuming the Phillies might get the second player that signed by beating all offers remaining.

[allentown]

In that case, I hope we sign Manny -- cover 3B, save the draft pick, save $, save a spot for Trout as well as our young OFs. I'd pay more $/year for a shorter contract, because I want Manny to know he has to play very well to set up his next big deal -- whether an extension us or as A FA or opt-out. I'm not at all worried about Manny short-term or intermediate-term because of his winter comments, but don't want to give him a rest-of-career contract.

[zambonir]

I can't imagine Machado wants to play for the Padres. I mean, I know it's ultimately only about the money but at least Chicago has the personal angle and is still closer to Florida.

Jaffe is assuming the Giants have no intention of making a competitive offer for Harper then? Ditto the Yankees and Manny clearly.

I'm really not worried about making Manny "play for his contract." Good players are good players. Howard didn't go downhill because he didn't have to work for his money. Besides, the deal is likely to have opt-outs that favor the player more than the team - if they perform.

[allentown]

Howard was a gamer, playing through a serious ankle injury, which the Phillies regularly shot up with cortisone, likely the ultimate cause of blown out Achilles. Howard never made comments remotely like those Manny made this winter. Plus Howard wanted to play in Philly and some doubt that Manny really does. All of this points me to a deal significantly shorter than an end-of-career deal. I expect the Phillies, with addition of Manny, to be quite good in 2019 and next several years. Not as certain that we can sustain it and that is when problems with Manny are likely to be most severe.

[zambonir]

Well, now there's drama. Surgery is not always necessary for a meniscus tear, but, like so many athletes before him, he toughed it out and didn't tell the team he was hurting as far as back as May.

Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta pitched last season with torn meniscus

[saycheese]

Interesting, I am wondering though if there is not a third option. One of Machado or Harper blinks (since neither wants to sign first) and signs with the Phillies. The amount of money for the next player may not be there with the White Sox or Gaints or Padres or whomever and Middleton says lets get them both. Say one at 30 mill per year and the other at 27.5 per year. The Phillies can easily stay under the tax threshold by dealing off Franco and maybe even Williams or Herrera and restock the farm some. They have some relief guys too that are making some big money that they may be able to eat say half of Niccisso contract and still gain 4.5 million.
The Phillies if they truly want to spend like Middleton said they did really are sitting in the cat bird seat here. They just need one of these guys to blink.

[bigegypt0417]

I think if both players are smart they try to out wait the other especially if the Phillies aren't the first team to sign one. If Machado was to sign with the White Sox the Phillies are going to feel pressure to up the dollars to harper. After all of this I can't imagine the Phillies want to be shut out...

[andyb]

It would actually not be easy to get under the tax threshold to sign both assuming it was $57 million more in AAV. We would be about $13.6 million over. Trading Franco saves $5.2 million but that is probably less because we'll need to spend at least the minimum on that roster spot. Saving another $9 million has obvious candidates (Neshek at $8.1 million, Nicasio at $9.25, Hunter at $9 million). But nobody is going to take all their salary for just prospects. We'd need to move one of them picking up a few million and then do another move to save $5 million more.

Now busting the luxury tax to get both is not the end of the world. They could do a reset next year with those reliever salaries coming off the board and maybe dealing Hernandez. But pay raises to other arbitration players would still make it close.

Before we got Segura and Realmuto and McCutchen it might have made sense to try and get both (at that point we thought it might be more like $70 million AAV though). But now that is probably a pipe dream unless Middleton says the Phillies want to win at all costs (kind of like the Nats).

Google Sheets

[zambonir]

I doubt the Phillies can truly outbid for both players anyway. But another way to get closer to doing that would be to trade Hernandez as well as Franco. You could also, maybe, shed Neshek or Nicasio's salary if you didn't expect a return (or bundled them with one of the above and took less return). But I think the Phillies need all the lottery tickets they can get for whatever major league assets they can afford to move.

Either way, even at their age, I think having two high-paid players on the same salary track is less than ideal. They also need to save room for a deadline deal or 2019 starting pitcher, potentially. And then they are set up to see what it might take to re-sign Realmuto and keep in the mix for Trout. By then Hernandez, Franco and possibly Herrera will be gone (and McCutchen won't be far off).

[EDmuch]

This whole situation with Manny and Harper is getting more and more ridiculous. The Phils are sitting here on a pile of money ready to sign either one of them and yet there is no movement. The system is broken.

[zambonir]

The Phillies haven't actually offered them the pile of money though, because they know they don't have to. Last December J.D. Martinez wanted a $200 million deal and MLBTR thought he'd get $150 million. He wound up with $110 million. Every day the Phillies wait this out is more $ to sign other players in the future. Not good for the players, the system is indeed broken, and with two more years before the next CBA one assumes more of them will just cave earlier in the off-season. But these guys don't have to.

As a Phillies fan, it's great, really. They got Arrieta on their terms by waiting and they will end up with one of these guys on more favorable terms.

[David_Criss]

Moustakas, Kimbrel, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Machado, Harper......Any of these guys could be signed now if they wanted to be. I'd be willing to bet each of them has an offer or two or three, but it isn't enough or it isn't with a team they want to play with......Do they expect that all of a sudden they will get a lot more? The longer a house or car sits on the for sale market, the lower the price becomes. Looks like that is what is happening with free agents, too.
Remember when Adam Jones refused a trade to Philly because this was his walk year and he needed to play everyday?

[julio]

This whole situation with Manny and Harper is getting more and more ridiculous. The Phils are sitting here on a pile of money ready to sign either one of them and yet there is no movement. The system is broken.

In an auction market, the highest bids are offered just before the hammer comes down. Why should a sought-after player accept an offer today, when he knows that one or more of the bidders may up their offer tomorrow?
If you need a "solution" to this "broken system," then argue for a fixed deadline for signing FA - a "closed" period in which FA may not be signed by any club, similar to the closed periods that exist on signing amateur players.
But it's not clear to me that the "system is broken," simply because a couple of desirable players are playing a waiting game. I don't see any damage being done here because Harper and Machado haven't agreed to contracts. A fan's impatience is not a per se indication of a systemic problem.

[zambonir]

Some of those players are probably not going to get better offers than they have now. Machado and Harper are not among them. That the fans are impatient doesn't matter. It only matters if Klentak and Middleton get impatient. If they do, they can make a final offer and walk away. They're nowhere near there yet.

[zambonir]

Don't shoot the messenger

Yet another indication Bryce Harper is signing tomorrow! (Now today)