2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[EastFallowfield]

Was kinda just researching it to try to update the numbers in my own head. Million dollars used to be a lot of money*

*For baseball players (first million dollar player was Nolan Ryan in 1980)

[Philsmania]

Interesting note in the story about Dickerson, I wonder what the benefits set-up really looks like for coaches, especially as teams add more and more of them.

The Phillies recently lost first base/infield coach Jose David Flores to Baltimore as the Orioles were able to offer him a position covered by the big-league pension plan.

Phillies to hire Manny Machado’s mentor from Baltimore

If the Phillies don't sign Machado, will his tenure on the Phillies' coaching staff resemble Art Howe's?

[fish]

f the Phillies don't sign Machado, will his tenure on the Phillies' coaching staff resemble Art Howe's?

I completely forgot that ever happened. Touche'!

[allentown]

I'd go with this lineup:
Hernandez
Segura
Harper
Machado
Hoskins
McCutcheon
Alfaro
Herrera/Quinn

I flip Herrera and Segura against a RHSP

[bkox]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[zambonir]

Geez I hope they are ready to lose that arbitration without much of a fight. (This certainly circles into the other discussion we are having about service time).

I bet McCutchen is frequently flipped with Hernandez in that proposed line-up (Or Herrera 6 Alfaro 7 Cesar 8 or 9 as the "second lead-off" guy). Having Williams instead of Harper wouldn't really change it though, except that Quinn would probably play more RF too.

[phillychuck]

McCutchen's greatest strength is high OBP. I want him at the top of the order.

[Austinfan]

That's the move you make AFTER you're a 90 win team, to get over the top.

It's not the move you make as a 80 win team to get in striking distance, only to find out you're up against the cap when you get to 90 wins and don't have enough in your farm system to trade.

[Austinfan]

It's also quite possible that the media has simply overestimated the market for free agents in the age of the salary cap and analytics. Teams have a lot of examples of "being stupid" with contracts, and as teams get squeezed by the luxury tax, fewer opportunities to dump a Stanton/Cano contract on another team.

It'll be interesting to see the money they get, last year people were projecting numbers for Arrieta and Darvish that weren't reached. My suspicion is the AAV declines drastically if they insist on a ten year contract, especially with opt out clauses (i.e. teams won't take on that kind of risk), but may be substantial on a five year deal.

The only deal this year that struck me as reckless was the Corbin contract.

[LoneStarPhan]

So does that comment in the linked article about the MLB players pension mean that some ML coaching positions are in the pension plan and some are not?

[bigegypt0417]

That's the move you make AFTER you're a 90 win team, to get over the top.

It's not the move you make as a 80 win team to get in striking distance, only to find out you're up against the cap when you get to 90 wins and don't have enough in your farm system to trade.

Incorrect...you build a winner in any order you have to. You don't set a "win" limit for free agents and then waste prospects when all you need is money.

[andyb]

Opt outs do not add risk. They give the player flexibility but arguably they decrease risk for the signing team. There is less risk of the player staying for the full 10 years. So if the player wants the opt out, the only thing that hurts the signing team is losing a star who is playing very well. If we sign Harper for 10/300 and he is great for 2-3 years he might want 10/400 after that at a time he was 2-3 years older. At that point one can say "no" as the contract would take the player into their late 30s which is the biggest risk in any of these long term deals.

[Philsmania]

f the Phillies don't sign Machado, will his tenure on the Phillies' coaching staff resemble Art Howe's?

I completely forgot that ever happened. Touche'!

A Phillies coach for not even a month, October 16, 2006 to November 7, 2006.

[bkox]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[Patchmk88]

Damn Franco made out like a bandit.

[julio]

Well, they still have until February to reach agreement with Nola, prior to an actual arbitration hearing. Today was the deadline for exchange of salary numbers; it's possible that as the two sides put together their arbitration arguments, one side or the other, or both, will conclude that some movement toward a negotiated middle ground makes sense.

[andyb]

Jeff Passan noted in his column that Nola did not come to agreement and is likely to go to arbitration. I imagine he is looking for something in the $7-$8 million range.

[Philsmania]

Perhaps they want to buy out Nola's arb years?

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think I would wait a year and see how his arm holds up.

[andyb]

Advantage of buying out Nola's arbitration years would be in getting a lower AAV a few years from now if we think that is an issue. 7-12-18 would be a 12.33 AAV. Of course if we go for both Machado and Harper that would be a bad idea.... But if we only add one of them it might be a good way to move some later salary forward.