2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

andyb 2019-02-22 17:14:11 UTC #915

I don't think Boras needs $400 million to feel he's won. If he can get $400 million for his client, why shouldn't he? I am sure Harper has told him to get the biggest offers he can - and then he'll decide where he wants to play if they are close.

For the Phillies I think managing the AAV of the deal is going to be more important than the total dollars. Options with large buyouts save money, but might lead to larger AAVs.

EDmuch 2019-02-22 17:54:29 UTC #916

Well my Columbus Blue Jackets just made the big trade for Matt Duchene giving them a Number 1 Center. Would be nice now for the Phils to step up to the plate and get the Harper deal done.

zambonir 2019-02-22 17:57:53 UTC #917

Manny only got a six-team no-trade clause apparently.

If the Angels can afford to trade for Harper - which would also require giving up talent - they can afford to re-sign Trout.

I think the Phillies will have the ability to do both if they want to. Arrieta's $20 million comes off the books after 2020. And they refused to sign any pitchers (starters or relievers) to deals longer than two years. So just losing Arrieta, Robertson and Hernandez (a free agent) is enough to pay for most of Trout, and that's before you also trade Herrera, and lose McCutchen in 2021. Even just losing Neshek and Hunter could pay for most of Realmuto.

Obviously this plan depends on continuing to develop pitchers, and, ultimately, your 3B and at least one OF. Hoskins doesn't even start arbitration until 2021 so he won't get pricey until 2023 (and they could try to sign him w/o going into his FA years).

julio 2019-02-22 18:20:44 UTC #918

I guess Klentak was waiting for the Duchene deal to go down, to establish the market, before he pulls the trigger on Harper.

flyers19rw 2019-02-22 19:05:52 UTC #920

Opt out after 5 or 6 years is fine with me. I had heard that 3 years was out there. Not my cup of tea. So knocking it down to 5 or 6 is better

Taudawg 2019-02-22 19:19:48 UTC #921

I think an opt out after 3 is perfect. I think the further out the first opt out falls, the less likely he takes advantage of it. At 3 years, we likely get his 3 best years, and then the salary goes away. I just want his best years, but know we probably need to offer a 10 year deal. I'd agree to an opt out after 3, and every year after.

allentown 2019-02-22 19:23:39 UTC #922

Agree. Harper opting out after 3, or preferably 4, years is optimum for Phillies. It gives a year or two to potentially have both Harper and Trout in the lineup and avoids the lower value years toward the end of the contract. I want Harper. I also prefer not to have him in Philly for 10 years.

zambonir 2019-02-22 23:15:22 UTC #923

I think three years is probably not optimal because you don't really want to just lose him, Trout or no Trout. I also think the more likely outcome of any opt-out that soon is the Phillies are forced to renegotiate, not walk away. But I also don't mind them giving it to him if that's what gets it done.

If baseball continues in the direction it is going he might not find the open market to be that appealing in 2021 anyway (because even if the players gain a lot of ground in the next CBA it won't be tilted towards older free agents). OTOH if the NL adds the DH he could take advantage of that and it would be bad for the Phillies to lose him (Hoskins and Harper a perfect tandem to share the two positions at that point. Anybody thinking Ortiz is knocking on that door right now?)

History also says every player is tradeable, no matter how untradeable they seem. Vernon Wells, Matt Kemp. The Red Sox guys. And in Harper's case he's likely to still be a really good player in years 4-6, and beyond if there's a DH.

Anyway, right now this situation seems to resemble Arrieta more than anything else. There might not be a serious discount but there sure doesn't seem to be any serious second bidder.

tom81 2019-02-22 23:33:34 UTC #924

I agree with this. I think we can get him for less guarantee years than people think but it will still be at top AAV.

Squire 2019-02-23 01:52:51 UTC #925

Jim Salisbury with a Friday night scoop. Says Middleton's plane is in Las Vegas tonight.

julio 2019-02-23 01:58:40 UTC #926

Las Vegas? Las Vegas, you say?

Las Vegas, Nevada??

Veeeeerrrrrrrrrrry Interesting....

zambonir 2019-02-23 02:09:42 UTC #927

nah probably New Mexico. maybe just spending the weekend around Santa Fe.

Patchmk88 2019-02-23 02:24:38 UTC #928

As long as it isn’t in Jupiter, Florida

fish 2019-02-23 02:48:02 UTC #929

No corrective lenses tonight Mr. Papagiorgio?

Jeff05 2019-02-23 03:16:33 UTC #930

But I read somewhere that Harper was seen just two hours ago disembarking a plane in Philadelphia!

Dirk41 2019-02-23 04:27:10 UTC #931

Passan and Heyman both shoot down any potential imminent deal.

This is brutal. Talk about taking all the wind out of the sails before the journey even begins. Baseball invented the Hot Stove, but the NFL and NBA own the offseasons.

Austinfan 2019-02-23 04:56:30 UTC #932

Whatever will happen, will probably happen in the next week or so, Boras is out of potential suitors, everyone knows what's being offered, and if MIddleton gets peeved Boras is screwed, because if Middleton publicly announces the Phillies are no longer interested, Harper loses $25-50M (because the next highest bidder will probably hold firm or even reduce their offer) and Boras comes out looking stupid.

zambonir 2019-02-23 05:10:31 UTC #933

I mean, I certainly didn't think that Middleton's presence meant they were having a press conference tomorrow, or that Harper would be getting on a plane

I don't see how anything has changed. These guys are part of a media/agent-industrial complex at this point. They get clicks (though I'm not even sure where you read Heyman now), the agents get to keep the bidding war alive.

But the reality is, if our owner flew to Vegas by himself, that is a significant escalation.

Also, ICYMI:

(The hedge is, they'd be interested if either took a one-year contract. Which at some point might not be out of the question, though certainly not yet.)

saycheese 2019-02-23 11:48:07 UTC #934

Wasn’t Middleton on the first trip,to Vegas back in January? How could this be a meet and greet? This is a sign and fly. If Middleton goes back to Clearwater without Bryce I don’t think we see Bryce as a Phillies. Just my opinion.

phillychuck 2019-02-23 12:47:57 UTC #935

Kingery actually said this in the Inquirer yesterday:

"In looking back on last season, Kingery realized that he was too passive at the plate. And the numbers backed up his conclusion. He got ahead in the count only 116 times — sixth fewest in the majors, ahead of Martin Maldonado (97), Carlos Gomez (101), Aledmys Diaz (103), Adam Engel (109) and JaCoby Jones (113). And Kingery fell into an 0-2 count 76 times, more than only Carlos Sanchez (86), Kevin Pillar (80), Corey Dickerson (78), Odubel Herrera (78) and Dee Gordon (77).

“My whole career, I’ve been an aggressive hitter,” Kingery said. “I kind of got away from it and let some pitches go by that I could hit.”

Is he a stone cold Moron? You fall behind in the count because you're too aggressive, not too passive. We need to look for the first chance to trade him if this is an accurate report. And the reporter needs to be sanity-checked, too. The numbers absolutely DON'T back him up.

You want to look at numbers? His O-swing percentage was 39.4%, almost 10% higher than league average and one of the highest in the big leagues. He needs to stop swinging outside the strike zone.