2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[allentown]

But if Haseley or Moniak aren't CFs they have likely already failed a little bit. The whole reason why the Phillies are so hot for Harper and were so hot for Realmuto is they already decided that the system they inherited and the drafting they have done so far isn't as promising as it should have been.

Moniak is a CF. Haseley is not, in all likelihood -- yes he could play there, but likely is below average. Yes, we don't have the best MLB roster in NL East at the moment and the Braves have a significantly better farm than we have. why we need a star. I preferred MM, but Harper will also be a big help. I have tried to look at our real situation, without the rose-colored glasses. We have a ton of money and cap space. Apart from that we have no advantage over the other teams in the NL East, apart from the Marlins. We are good enough that we've past the period of primo draft picks. Just waiting for the guys on the farm to mature is not going to give us a shot at a WS. You can get lucky trading for older vets, as we did in 2003 and as we did again in 2008 with Lidge, but that is very hit-or-miss. As with 1993, it also can be a very short-term solution.

[xogfog]

I still think they are going to sign Harper, but think about this, what if signing Harper is the bridge to Trout. I don't think they will be able to sign Trout, who is going to get the biggest contract ever, with Harper, who will have the largest contract for 2019 on the payroll. What if they are signing Harper so that they can trade him straight up for Trout next offseason. It puts Harper in California, where he wants to be, sends Trout to Philly where he wants to be, and gives the Angels a star player with a contract in place with cost certainty, for less then what it is going to cost for Trout.

[allentown]

We can afford both. Harper will undoubtedly demand a FNTC. Even if he doesn't, are the Angels going to want to trade for a guy who is owed almost $300 million? Why not just pony up a few more tens of $millions to keep Trout, who is their home-grown, popular with their fans star?

[nycphils]

I think you’ll see a NTC that captures maybe 15 teams, but not a FNTC. That would be a little nuts on a 10+ year contract.

[Austinfan]

Harper won't block anyone b/c McCutchen is 32 on a 3 year deal, if Haseley breaks out, he can platoon with McCutcheon then replace him.

[David_Criss]

What if they are signing Harper so that they can trade him straight up for Trout next offseason. It puts Harper in California, where he wants to be, sends Trout to Philly where he wants to be, and gives the Angels a star player with a contract in place with cost certainty, for less then what it is going to cost for Trout.

Holy cow I hadn't even thought of that, but it makes sense. Anaheim also gets to save face by letting Trout leave. No way can one team have $75 million committed to two players in 2020 (Harper and Trout). At least not without a very very deep and ready farm system in place.

Rumors on MLB tv last night is that some think Harper could get an 11 or even 12-year contract......that scares me for any player. And according to the Phillies website Keuchel and Kimbrel are still looking for 4 and 5-year guaranteed deals.

Spring Training games do start today, right? These guys have had 3 to 4 months to iron this stuff out.

[xogfog]

I don't think the Phillies could afford the two biggest contracts in baseball, without having to skimp on the rest of the roster, especially without much left in the pipeline. The Angels don't have any control over signing Trout, it is entirely his decision, and if he tells them he wants to play for the Phillies and will not sign an extension with them, the a trade for Harper would make sense.

[JoefromPocono]

How about we actually get the signing done before we start trying to trade him...lol

[allentown]

Maybe, but I have trouble imagining Harper agreeing to a deal which allows him to be traded from the team that signs him only 2 years after he signs the long-term contract.

[andyb]

If Harper really wants to get close to $400 million, the only way he can get there is by adding years. Even $350 million might require an 11th year on the deal. This would lower the AAV of the contract, so that is a plus. Whether it is something the Phillies would consider is a completely different question. I imagine they do not want the AAV of the deal much over $30 million if possible.

[flyers19rw]

Its just me, and I'm probably in the minority here, but the more money that Harper gets, which gives him security, then, in return, the Phillies should knock down the opt out possibilities which gives them security as well. MM gets his first opt out after five or six seasons which basically makes his contract a lifelong deal since its doubtful that any club will give him more salary per year than he's getting at that age. My hope is that the Phillies are able to do the same with Harper and make the deal a two way street which benefits both sides.

[fish]

If Harper really wants to get close to $400 million, the only way he can get there is by adding years. Even $350 million might require an 11th year on the deal. This would lower the AAV of the contract, so that is a plus. Whether it is something the Phillies would consider is a completely different question. I imagine they do not want the AAV of the deal much over $30 million if possible.

If Boras needs the number 400 million to feel like he's won, then I'd do something like 10 years, 330 million with 2 club or vesting options at the end of the deal.

He'll have an opt-out and end up negotiating a new deal somewhere in the original contract anyway, the final number in this deal is all about bragging rights at this point.

[el-pietro]

I disagree with that. Having an opt out after ~5 years gives him something to aim towards. I don't know him personally and I have no idea what his work ethic would be like, but a~10 year ~300m contract gives him a huge amount of security. It would be perfectly normal to relax a little with that in your bank account. Having that opt out gives him some motivation. He gets to be a free agent again at 31 and can potentially earn some additional money.

At this point I think the Phillies sign him for under 300M. It doesn't sound like the Nats are interested. The White Sox and Phillies have both shown an aversion to going over 300M already. I don't know what other teams are out there willing to spend that sort of money. Maybe the Giants take a leaf out of the Padres book but SF aside there doesn't seem to be an obvious suitor other than the Phillies.

I'm going to guess he gets 10/280-285 or maybe 11/305-310. I could potentially see something like
10 Years @ 28M guaranteed. Opt outs after 5 and 7 years.
Team option or Vesting Option for years 11 and possibly 12 based on plate appearances.

If he took a 10 year 280 deal with two team/vesting options then Boras can spin it as the record contract even if its not guaranteed.

[el-pietro]

Jinx! Though I'm offering far less than you

[andyb]

If Boras needs the number 400 million to feel like he's won, then I'd do something like 10 years, 330 million with 2 club or vesting options at the end of the deal.

I don't think Boras needs $400 million to feel he's won. If he can get $400 million for his client, why shouldn't he? I am sure Harper has told him to get the biggest offers he can - and then he'll decide where he wants to play if they are close.

For the Phillies I think managing the AAV of the deal is going to be more important than the total dollars. Options with large buyouts save money, but might lead to larger AAVs.

[EDmuch]

Well my Columbus Blue Jackets just made the big trade for Matt Duchene giving them a Number 1 Center. Would be nice now for the Phils to step up to the plate and get the Harper deal done.

[zambonir]

Manny only got a six-team no-trade clause apparently.

If the Angels can afford to trade for Harper - which would also require giving up talent - they can afford to re-sign Trout.

I think the Phillies will have the ability to do both if they want to. Arrieta's $20 million comes off the books after 2020. And they refused to sign any pitchers (starters or relievers) to deals longer than two years. So just losing Arrieta, Robertson and Hernandez (a free agent) is enough to pay for most of Trout, and that's before you also trade Herrera, and lose McCutchen in 2021. Even just losing Neshek and Hunter could pay for most of Realmuto.

Obviously this plan depends on continuing to develop pitchers, and, ultimately, your 3B and at least one OF. Hoskins doesn't even start arbitration until 2021 so he won't get pricey until 2023 (and they could try to sign him w/o going into his FA years).

[julio]

Well my Columbus Blue Jackets just made the big trade for Matt Duchene giving them a Number 1 Center. Would be nice now for the Phils to step up to the plate and get the Harper deal done.

I guess Klentak was waiting for the Duchene deal to go down, to establish the market, before he pulls the trigger on Harper.

[flyers19rw]

Opt out after 5 or 6 years is fine with me. I had heard that 3 years was out there. Not my cup of tea. So knocking it down to 5 or 6 is better

[Taudawg]

I think an opt out after 3 is perfect. I think the further out the first opt out falls, the less likely he takes advantage of it. At 3 years, we likely get his 3 best years, and then the salary goes away. I just want his best years, but know we probably need to offer a 10 year deal. I'd agree to an opt out after 3, and every year after.