2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[andyb]

Maybe the question is how much does Harper enjoy spring training?

Or how much does anyone need all 6 weeks. I noticed that the Phillies announced their first 5 starters for the Spring games and all of them are going to be in the Lehigh Valley rotation. Clearwater fans will have to go to side sessions and minor league games this year if they actually want to see a major league starter apparently.

[allentown]

Even if playing for the Phillies has been his #1 dream since childhood, the delay is driven by a desire to get more $ and better terms and likely has zilch to do about whether or not he wants to play for the Phillies. This is all negotiation tactics. I fail to see why so many are choosing to equate 'he hasn't signed yet' to 'he doesn't want to play in Philly[. Boras negotiates slowly and seeks to squeeze the last drop of blood from the stone before agreeing to a deal, since Boras doesn't know exactly how much the team is willing to pay or whether the team knows its bidding against itself, if that is even the case here, he is going to keep squeezing until he is 100% convinced that more squeezing won't yield 1 more $. That's the process we are engaged in. Where Harper wants to play may be totally irrelevant. Players generally hire Boras when their goal is getting every last $ it is possible to get. There are times when a player tells Boras he wants to re-up or go to a particular place. In those cases, Boras doesn't play the elaborate games he is playing here. It seems 95% likely that Harper goes to whomever offers the best deal, including opt outs and likely NPV, because Boras is not an unsophisticated soul and knows that a $ in pocket today is worth more than a $ received 10 or 20 years from now.

[allentown]

since

The NFL does the same thing. ST is as much to evaluate young players and AAAA FA signees to see if they should make the 25-man or be in the queue if an injury call-up is needed in-season, as it is to get players ready to play games. It certainly doesn't take 6 weeks to be ready to play and get into shape. Every game played is a possibility for injury. Getting in shape to play in FL does not seem to put one in shape to play in PA on a cold April night. Reading has had a lot of April injuries over the years. The Eagles starters miss more pre-season time than they play.

[Austinfan]

Players used to use ST to get into game shape, but with the big money, any player who doesn't work out 12 months of the year is a fool, and if he shows up out of shape it's a big red flag to the FO.

So it's more about giving the ML roster guys enough time to sharpen their skills, but use most of the PAs to give kids experience and see who you keep for the last few roster spots and who you want to stash in AAA in case of emergency.

[Taudawg]

This idea he (maybe) doesn't want to play in Philly I am not buying. Does that mean by not signing yet, he doesn't want to play in San Fran, Chicago, etc.

At the end of the day, I don't really care if he wants to be here or not. Billy Wagner hated Philly, but he put up two excellent seasons. Scott Rolen didn't like Philly, but it didn't seem to hurt his on-field performance. If I were an agent, I would leak this vibe to try and drive up the price, especially in a limited market.

[VoteForKalas]

I think it is important to again make clear distinctions.

Wagner struggled with the local media coverage of his performance and some fans feedback on the same. I do not recall him saying anything negative about Philadelphia the community or the Phillies organization.

Rolen's beef was almost entirely with the Phillies as an organization and how it was, in his opinion, fomenting negativity about Rolen with the fans and local media by leaking selective information (contract offer etc.) and using it as an excuse to not spend money to build a winner.

Harper has never played here and likely has little knowledge beyond what he has heard, but I still do not buy the theory that he would make this important of a decision on such a shaky foundation of information. I guess we'll see what happens, but to me if the Phillies pay him he will play here with no problem.

[zambonir]

How many days now have we heard everything is lining up for Harper to Philadelphia? Does he or doesn't he want to play for the Phillies?

How many days now have we heard everything is lining up for Harper to Philadelphia? Do they or don't they want to sign him badly enough?

[teabag259]

Just get this over already...

[zambonir]

March 1 seems about right. Figure the bidding will be over by Monday or Tuesday, it leaks by Wednesday or Thursday and they rush to make it official and get him into camp over the weekend.

[jferry46]

Think this would fly with Boras/Harper: $25 million bonus, 5 years at $40 million per, 5 years at $20 million. Opt out after 5 years. He makes $325 million over 10 years and has an incentive to opt out after 5 years if he's still good. If he's not, $20 million per year by that point might not be much .

[EDmuch]

I think that is reasonable. But to Boras ..........

[LoneStarPhan]

Other than the Phillies, who is in this bidding war?

Seems to me it’s time to make a final offer and if not accepted, move on.

[tom81]

I think Harper/Boras would accept that offer in a heartbeat. I also don’t think Klentak and the Phillies will offer that much. I think the bar that must be broken is at least 6 years guaranteed at a higher AAV than Grienke with the option years exceeding Machado’s deal. I think 4 years guaranteed at somewhere between $35-$40 million per with a club option/s for 3, or more years, at some rate and Harper getting an option to add two more years to make it 6 years north of $205 million might get it done. This will be a complex contract, Boras enjoys it and it will give him the ability to claim it is the greatest contact ever. It also won’t lock us into 10 years.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Guess this is more about satisfying Boras’ ego than it is about Harper getting a great deal that sets him up for life. The longer this plays out, the harder it will be for Bryce to gain acceptance in his new clubhouse. Seems like it’s time for Bryce to speak up and say it’s time to get something done.

[zambonir]

Boras works for Harper, not the other way around, as much as it seems otherwise sometimes. And most players (and their union) root for their peers to get paid. It's about as likely that there are people in the clubhouse who resent Nola for not setting a new arbitration record as there are people who will resent Harper. I mean, he's Bryce Harper. He's always been about being the biggest and the best and the youngest and now the richest. Comes with the territory (and it's okay not to like it, or even want it on your team).

Anyway most players blame the owners for this free agent process taking so long. And we're still three weeks short of when Arrieta signed. Do you think his teammates didn't accept him?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Harper wasn’t embraced in the Nats clubhouse (see Boswell’s recent article or Papelbon’s spat with him a few years ago). As I said in an earlier post, team chemistry worries me for this team if we sign Harper. I’d rather see him get involved and accelerate the process rather than continue holding out to set the world record for contracts. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like his future teammates would like to see this settled too.

[zambonir]

I recognize the team chemistry could be an issue with Harper, but it won't be because he's trying to get paid or misses a week of spring training. If anything he will be welcomed as a hero for not kowtowing to the age of "valuation," which they all see as collusion. About 1/4 of our team is repped by Boras too, and they know that if Harper gets paid they have a better chance of getting paid.

[allentown]

Harper wasn’t embraced in the Nats clubhouse (see Boswell’s recent article or Papelbon’s spat with him a few years ago).

I never thought Papelbon was the nicest guy in the world. Harper was one of the home-grown Nats stars and Papelbon was the faded gun for hire who probably felt he deserved more respect than he deserved and be counted as a clubhouse leader, which he likely wasn't. It's a tricky position. Management want the older veterans to show 'leadership' and help police the clubhouse, yet bringing in a newbie vet likely seems an imposition and ruining of their chemistry to the younger, far higher WAR guys who were already part of the team. Possibly why the Phillies 2018 deadline acquisitions bombed to badly. It's tough for the old guys with the faded skills, because leadership is part of what they are selling to earn a largish salary from management. I think it's far easier if you were an older established player on the team, like Ruiz or Utley for the Phillies in their later years. Still, leadership or not, it's total WAR that matters most and Papelbon didn't pitch nearly as well for Washington as he did for us in 2015 and was flat-out bad in 2016.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

If we do sign Harper, I hope it works out that he fits in well and helps us win more games. Winning cures a lot of clubhouse problems. Regardless of whether or not their are issues within the clubhouse, the fan base will come down hard on him if the highest paid player in the league isn’t performing up to his contract.

[Jazzhead]

At this point, with the kind of money and contract length that Boras is demanding, I think it's best to sign Kimbrel to a three-year deal and be done with it. We saw what New York was able to do with that monster bullpen. With Robertson, Kimbrel and Seranthony, we'd have a comparable thing going, with even our secondary relievers like Neshek and Arano doin' the nasty.

A ten-year commitment at unspeakable sums of money for the out years of Bryce Harper's career cannot in the end help our club. The goal should be to win now, but with upgrades at four positions and Kimbrel to cap a killer bullpen, our young starters can have the confidence to just go out and pitch. We can win now without Harper.

Harper is a talented mercenary, but on a young team what can be the effect of bringing in a guy making 30 times what most of his teammates do? And clogging up a position that likely denies a Phillies future to Haseley and Moniak, let alone Nick Williams?