Discussion

donaldorc 2017-10-05 21:13:30 UTC #81

Agree here. Need some pieces as you mention, to buoy up the current youngsters. Pitching, pitching, and no Buckholz.

zambonir 2017-10-05 22:15:26 UTC #82

This is the same debate people had about the Sixers for ever, and about the Astros too. They don't expect/intend to contend for the wild card and 85 wins next year. That's not realistic, or at least, it's not more realistic just because you add payroll. This is still just Year 3. That's hard for fans to accept because they've been losing for a lot longer, but that's obviously how the front office sees it. I know the analogy isn't perfect but the Phillies' 2018 is the Cubs/Astros 2014.

Swapping Altherr and Williams for Stanton and Yelich, Franco for Moustakas and a couple of young starters for vets would definitely make the team better this season but would it be better for five years? I don't think so.

Otani would be nice though. And I certainly talk to the Marlins. I certainly see what the FA pitching market is. But I don't see how you can look at a 2018 team that is going to have as many as six different starting position players than it did on Opening Day and feel like you need to rush all of a sudden. And i you really wanted to win now you wouldn't move Hernandez and Galvis either (even though it's highly debatable that Galvis makes the team better).

flyers19rw 2017-10-05 23:06:18 UTC #83

Z, Altherr will be 27 next season, Williams 24, Franco 25. Yelich 26, Stanton 28, Moustakas 29. The Phillies would not be not be substituting gray beards for young guys with these types of moves. The same with Lynn and Cobb. Neither would be over thirty. Like you, I would not be in favor of overpaying for guys in their mid thirties or older.

zambonir 2017-10-05 23:34:32 UTC #84

Fair enough but Stanton is signed through 2028 and Moustakas may only be a marginal upgrade, especially as he ages. Bad OBP, WAR nothing special (except for in 2015), and he'd be the most expensive/longest-term sign of the available 3B.

If I were gonna make one move, deciding to cut ties with Franco might be the one I'd make, but given their obvious interest in Machado and the presence of several other stopgap options, it seems unlikely.

rkeden 2017-10-06 00:00:26 UTC #85

I was interested to hear a discussion of the poor sports environment in Miami at the moment due to all the teams in all the sports, including the college Hurricanes, being horrid. They went on to say that there were high hopes for Jeter to come in with a Brinks truck and surround the good hitting Marlins with a bevy of great pitchers. It was the city's best and only near-term hope.

Nothing to it! Keep paying the hitters with their long term contracts and then hit FA big time to get the pitching they so sorely lack. How many fan bases are driving their General managers and owners into the hopeless market for quality pitching. We are going to have to be both smart and lucky to attract the kinds of arms this board wants. There must be at least 15 franchises that want what we want and don't have a future of quality arms in their minor league systems. That puts even more pressure on the management to buy. I wish Klentak the best but I don't have high hopes for this off-season.

Austinfan 2017-10-06 00:02:45 UTC #86

Lynn turned 30 in May, Cobb this October. Neither has a great track record of durability, they are both short-run fixes where you cross your fingers.
Darvish will be 32.
Aren't a lot of spring chickens in free agency. Basically, it's a win now move.

Yelich had a big year in 2016, regressed back in 2017, basically he's a 4 WAR player, which is solid, but not a huge upgrade. OF is not the weak spot of this team, now or in the future.
Stanton is a gamble on health given his contract, when he plays every day he's extremely valuable, but he's been hurt most of his career.

There's just no slam dunk answers out there.

andyb 2017-10-06 00:32:47 UTC #87

Lynn does have a good track record of durability. Many pitchers miss a season because of TJ surgery. Other than that he pitched 176, 201.203.2, 175.1, and 186.1 innings. 42 pitchers threw 175 innings this year. Lynn is pretty durable to do that every season except the one he lost for TJ surgery. Same with Darvish. Very durable. Darvish will also be 31 most of next season, not 32. There are other reasons to not want to go after those pitchers. Durability is not one of them.

flyers19rw 2017-10-06 00:35:12 UTC #88

IDK if the O’s can handle what it’s going to take to sign Machado. I doubt it. It would be smart for them to move him this off season. Perhaps the Phillies can get him with a package including Franco going back. If the Phillies make that move they have to have MM signed long term before doing that deal. Gosh knows how much it would cost to get him player wise.

allentown 2017-10-06 00:48:51 UTC #89

Machado is the sexy signing, but our lineup projects to be good enough. Our pen can reasonably be projected to almost good enough -- I think we need one quality reliever added. There is no way our SP is remotely good enough, nor do I give high odds that a good enough SP rotation can be cobbled together with the guys who were AA and above this past season. We desperately need to add SP and there is reasonable SP available for just $. We have tons of $, tons of salary space, so MacPhail needs to do an about face and realize that the missing pieces he needs to add are SP, not hitters. We are growing our own hitters.

What would it take to get Machado? I'll guess Moniak, Haselik, Hernandez, Franco, and Sanchez, then $400 million to extend him. Taps us out and leaves us still woefully short of pitching, with our brightest chance for a top of rotation starter within next few years gone. The Orioles may not want those specific guys and a third team may need to be involved.

DurhamBull 2017-10-06 01:10:31 UTC #90

Mind boggling. Hard to believe that contract won't be an albatross by the time it's half over, but I guess as long as all parties are aware of that and still want to sign...

bkox 2017-10-06 02:29:55 UTC #91

gmwannabe 2017-10-06 03:09:29 UTC #92

i can't believe the phils turned down getting Altuve in the giles trade. What a playoff opener! there is hope for gamboa yet.
gm

Austinfan 2017-10-06 05:57:36 UTC #93

Problem is what pitcher available this year is going to be more than #4 in our 2020 rotation?
Darvish at 34? Lynn at 32?

zambonir 2017-10-06 06:13:38 UTC #94

I mean, yeah, it's a risk, but who in the system, right now, are the other two (currently in the system) who will be better than them besides Nola? We don't know that any of them will be. Until Nola does it for another season we don't know if he will be either for that matter. But I'm okay with using 2018 to get these answers, and if they aren't positive answers, the money's there.

andyb 2017-10-06 11:04:35 UTC #95

Either could be. And Darvish will be 33 most of that year. You keep adding a year to his age to make your points.

bigegypt0417 2017-10-06 13:01:01 UTC #96

I still don't know the world AF exists in where you aren't giving out years that you know you may get nothing in return for. This is the MLB in 2017. No agent is going to agree to a deal where his client doesn't get that added on.

allentown 2017-10-06 15:33:12 UTC #97

And we are in an excellent budget position just to give them all the money in fewer years so that all the money counts against years in which we are far, FAR from the salary cap. If we only want the guy for 3/4 years and only think he's good for that time, but the going rate is 5/6 years at total $Y, just agree to $Y for 3/4 years service. Include a club option, if we think we might want him another year. Spending the money hurts us not at all. If we need to buy another guy in 2021, we buy another guy. Hopefully we have young pitchers ready by then so we don't have to, but we'll have the money to do it if need be. And that's how you legally front-load an MLB contract, when the rest of the world is paying for dead years during the dead years.

California_Dreamin 2017-10-06 15:48:35 UTC #98

Heyman had a column either yesterday or the day before where he talked about how the Phils were the 2nd most likely team to acquire Stanton this off season, the Cards being the 1st and the Giants the 3rd. Speculation was that the reason McPhail said Phils weren't going to spend this off season was to give Klentak cover in case this deal doesn't happen...and to make him look good if it does.

Cards are heavily into Donaldson right now so if that happens I would guess that would take them out of the Stanton sweepstakes. They also do not have as good a farm system as do the Phils and McPhail did say that the team might use the farm system to improve the big league club.

I have never really believed the Phils would do this, it just seems so un-Phillie like to me [that was why I was so shocked at the Thome signing] but there is little doubt that Stanton is going somewhere and I am one of those who still believes Middleton wants to win now and is prepared to spend to do so.

Thoughts on this?

Philsmania 2017-10-06 15:50:50 UTC #99

I don't want this Stanton deal. I like what we have coming together now. This deal along with signing Arrieta or Darvish and bringing in another established SP would open the window of opportunity now. But, it may not keep it open for long.

As I said, I really am coming to like the team we have coming together. Trust the process.

andyb 2017-10-06 15:56:38 UTC #100

I hope the team is aggressive on offering front loaded contracts. Grienke I think has the highest AAV for any pitcher at $34.3 million.

I would be fine with a 3-4 year offer for Darvish that exceeded that number. He is probably the only pitcher worth that. 4 years, $140+ million. Add a team-friendly mutual option on the back end and maybe he says yes.

Then he can talk to his good friend Shohei Otani.