Discussion

andyb 2018-02-10 14:01:15 UTC #762

Article talks about Cashner too. Among the inexpensive lefties I actually prefer Jamie Garcia. He has been consistently average through his career around his injuries and seems healthy now. Not great stuff but if you want to pencil in an inexpensive 4.20 ERA he is your man.

I still hope they aim higher and entice one of the top 4 to take a somewhat shorter but higher AAV deal. They are good at holding their cards close to the vest as with Santana and if there is an opportunity to get a top pitcher for a discount who could help them when they are actually in contention they need to take it.

allentown 2018-02-10 14:43:27 UTC #763

I also hope that they aim higher and think that is the logical thing to do from both a baseball and business perspective. The Phillies focus upon 1-2 year deals really doesn't make sense in light of several factors:1)they don't have cap problems in year 4 of a multi-year deal (or really in year 5, although I'd sooner go 4 years for same $ to be safe), 2) with the Yankees and Dodgers back in the pitcher and all the advance promo for the 2019 FA class, FA aren't going to be cheaper next off-season, 3)looking at our pitching prospects in the upper minors, we aren't going to have 5 quality home-grown starters in 2019 (or 2020), 4) unexpected good stuff and bad stuff happens in sports and the Phillies are close enough to reach the playoffs IF they add a plus starting pitcher and a little good stuff happens, 5) if the Phillies don't spend the $ to make a push to contend, the Eagles will suck out what little air the Phillies have left in their balloon.

The Eagles have been discussed in terms of owning Philadelphia sports fans' attention, but I think there is a larger impact on how the Phillies fans view their team. The Eagles were 7-9 in 2016-2017, had a coach who had not garnered a lot of support for his brilliance, and by just about universal consensus were not expected to be a playoff factor. Roseman spent all of his cap money and then some, such that we are expected to have negative cap space going into the draft, added the sort of parts (Nick Foles) you add with the aim of taking a shot at playoffs, and never gave up. Like his head coach, he was aggressive all the way, And now the Eagles are the Super Bowl winners. Contrast this to the Phillies apparent willingness to hoard their pennies and give up on yet another season and the obvious message is negative. The Eagles show how much players can grow from one season to the next, how much a head coach who can unite the team (admittedly football is far more a team sport than baseball) and position coaches who can analyze a players strengths and weaknesses and persuade him to make changes to correct the weaknesses can accomplish to improve a team, Football is a bigger roster, so the impact of one improved player or FA signing isn't as great as in baseball. Klentak has supposedly spent the past year improving the baseball management side, so the expectation should be that our manager and coaches will get more out of the same players and that some guys will correct weaknesses and take a step forward. As fans, I think it fair to expect the Phillies to do what is necessary to take a shot at post-season this year. Starting pitching is the obvious team weakness. It is imperative to fix this weakness.

Klentak may have great talents, but I see him playing a self-serving, cynical game of lowering expectations and stringing out the rebuild to give himself more time, before he is judged on his abilities as a GM. The man lacks urgency and aggressiveness.

EastFallowfield 2018-02-10 15:38:48 UTC #764

The systems are different though, in the NFL you can pick up a bunch of useful veterans for one season, Long, Blount, Smith, etc. To add similar player in MLB you need to buy all the years of further decline/retirement at higher prices.

allentown 2018-02-10 16:06:33 UTC #765

And that could be a serious impediment, IF the Phillies were in a bind on cap space or revenue resources now or in the next several years. But they aren't. At this point, uniquely in baseball, the Phillies have effectively infinite financial and cap resources. The Eagles were actually tight, yet acted aggressively and claimed the reward.

The big lesson to be learned from the Eagles is that a team should never forfeit a season in advance of play unless its talent level is simply pathetic or it is extremely strapped on cap space/finances. The bitter irony is that when the Phillies were both up against the cap and clearly deficient in talent at the MLB level and with a gap in the farm talent, they refused to rebuild and trade vets to free cap space and acquire young talent, until it was too late. That started this very unnecessary prolonged tenure as a bottom-dweller. Now that they have young talent AND huge financial/cap resources, they refuse to try to compete. This season may be the best shot we have for years. The Dodgers and Yankees are going to spend like mad in next season's primo FA class after re-setting their cap penalty count. We have to get past the Dodgers to get to WS. It is beyond foolish to punt the 2018 season away on 3rd down. Also, there isn't any discernable future advantage from doing so. Commit to a $30 mill/year deal for 3-4 years with an upfront bonus and we are still in the best cap/budget position going forward of any team in baseball.

California_Dreamin 2018-02-10 16:19:31 UTC #766

Wait, I am totally confused. Jason Vargas won 18 games last year??? here in the heck did I miss that and why is he not listed as one of the better names out there.

Wow, sounds pretty good to me...a lefty [an endangered if not almost extinct animal in Philly] and a guy who seems like the team could get on a decent 2 year deal.

Please let me know why there isn't more interest in him??? He won more games than any of the big name guys and on a lousy team. And I looked it up and he finished strong. Look, I know analytics is the name of the game but at some point you have to trust what a guy is doing on the field.

He missed the 2016 season and was solid last year. Perhaps his surgery did wonders for his arm. This is the guy I would like unless there is something I don't know,,.injury, head case, hates the Eagles.

phillychuck 2018-02-10 16:44:37 UTC #767

CD, seriously, you don't know why he's not getting a lot of buzz? His ERA was well over 4, below league average, and his corrected ERAs were higher, indicating he was pretty lucky. He had great run support in his starts, even though his team wasn't consistently good offensively. He's 35. He's never had another season remotely close to last year; he's had double-digit wins only three other times, and those were .500 seasons of about 10 wins. He pitched 55 innings in 2015/2016, and the huge jump last year is a strong injury/backsliding predictor, even when previous injuries are involved in the low-inning years. There is not a lot of data on TJ surgery recovery for pitchers in their mid-30s, but most of it isn't encouraging. He has never struck batters out at a high rate, and his control is decent but not exceptional.

I don't want Vargas even if he comes at a bargain contract. Look elsewhere.

zambonir 2018-02-10 18:03:54 UTC #768

That article, like every article lately, pretty much rules out the Top 4 guys while saying there is a particular player they're after. I just don't think they want to give up the extra FA compensation at this point, and I also suspect that of those four guys they may simply not like one or two of them. But mostly, I don't think anyone is taking what the Phillies have to offer. It's all well and good to say they should up the AAV or give out an extra year to outbid someone, and I'm sure they've done so, but not to the point where anyone is budging, and there still has to some kind of limit.

I agree there is "reverse collusion" going on, the agents talk, the top available players have been disciplined about not taking any offers that are on the table. The dam will have to break eventually but if they really want to make a statement they do have a bit more time (and of course, anyone who is unsigned can't report to ST).

Austinfan 2018-02-10 18:38:44 UTC #769

I also think Klentak doesn't want to be used to raise a free agent's value to other teams.

That's the worst of all worlds, you don't get the player but now you have to negotiate with both your own players and other free agents on the basis of an inflated offer.

So he's going to stick with what he thinks is a good offer (and as we've seen from the players he signed, he's not low balling anyone) and not get "played."

tom81 2018-02-10 18:50:34 UTC #770

Vargas had night and day 1st half / 2nd half splits last year.
12-3/2.62 ERA/106.1IP/1.147 WHIP.
6-8/6.38 ERA/73.1 IP/1.59 WHIP.
Coming off TJ he wore out down the stretch but I do admit his 1st half was an anomaly. That said Fangraphs shows him to have one of the best changeups in all of MLB last year, #1 in wCH and #7 in wCH/C. Given that it would probably take a 1 year deal of around $10 million for him I think he is an interesting fit for the Phillies. A lefty junk baller in a pitching staff of mostly hard throwers would have real value. With an 8 man bullpen you could really limit his pitch counts to keep him fresh. Sure I would rather have Darvish or Arrietta on a one year deal but I don't think that is going to happen. I like Vargas on a 1 year deal better than giving up the QO compensation for a 3 year deal for Lynn or Cobb.

allentown 2018-02-10 19:03:22 UTC #771

I will confess that I don't even begin to understand on what basis Phillies fans would want only one season of Darvish.

If I was certain that Vargas's 2nd half was just fatigue from transition TJ year, then I would want him. It could just as well be re-injury. His age is against him, but supports either possible explanation.

California_Dreamin 2018-02-10 19:07:51 UTC #772

I think it is foolish to poo-poo a starting lefty who came back from TJ surgery and won 18 games. I still believe we all can take this sabermetric system a bit too far. I mean, someone had to be around long enough to win 18 games on a team that won 80.

Good Lord, we haven't had a lefty win 18 games a season since...probably Lefty. Hamels never did. Lee never did. Mulholland never did. Vargas may not be an All-Star but I bet we can get him on a 1 year and 1 option year deal for 1/4 what it will cost for Cobb or Lynn and neither of them is a lefty, neither of them will come for a 2 year deal and neither of them has won 18 games in a season even in their dreams.

With this Phillie offense, and the bullpen as deep as it is, Vargas can give us 5-6 solid innings and win lots of games if he even closely resembles the pitcher from last year.

In fact, to me, Vargas is the perfect example of why I do NOT believe their is collusion among the owners...they are driven almost exclusively now by analytics and, truth be told, analytics probably would have told us that Johnny Callison wasn't a very successful hitter in 1964.

phillychuck 2018-02-10 19:41:59 UTC #773

CD, do you know what analytics are? They are factual analyses of baseball performance with an attempt to eliminate irrational biases. There is no basis for denigrating their use, other than the misunderstanding of how analytics are compiled and applied.

Callison is a particularly bad example. At 18, he posted a .911 OPS in high-A ball, followed by two full seasons of over.800 OPS's in AAA at 19 and 20. The Phils acquired him and he went immediately to the big leagues, where he posted 4 years of .820 OPS performance prior to 1964, where he was once again excellent. I think analytics would have reliably predicted a good year for him in '64, probably a bit better than his .808 OPS (caused by a fall-off in walk percentage that he recovered in '65--he sacrificed some walks for more power in '64).

I'd rather give any innings the Phils would hand to Vargas to any of the 5 projected starters at LV. It might cost us a win or two, but it might also help us figure out where our young pitching stands. You say that he can win lots of games for the Phils if he resembles the pitcher he was last year, but the chances that he resembles that pitcher are at best maybe 30%--he has a long track record of being worse than that, a lot of fall-off/injury indicators, and the year itself was extremely lucky in terms of run support and batted-ball luck. I'd rather make a higher odds bet, even if it is more expensive.

zambonir 2018-02-10 19:55:04 UTC #774

I don't mind Vargas or Cashner, both of whom would be tradeable too. At this time last year it looked like the Phillies had too many pitchers and it turned out they didn't have enough. There's nobody on the fringe or in AAA who wouldn't benefit from a half-season there, and more likely than not they'd get the call in May or June.

I want Darvish, I just don't believe the Phillies can get him. Offering him $120 four years plus a bonus sounds great, but it still may not be enough to get him to turn down $125 five years. And I wouldn't go higher than that (even adding the bonus there is a bit excessive but since it doesn't affect the AAV and the Phillies have money now, who cares).

We'll see what kind of game of chicken Darvish is really playing, and with what teams. I suspect they simply aren't interested in giving four years to any of the QO guys, because they also aren't as good (Arrieta was, but not currently).

(Edit)

Austinfan 2018-02-10 20:30:53 UTC #775

This makes sense for the Cubs, where they're at right now is competing to return to the WS for the next few years, after that, they'll have to rebuild, so they can carry the salary of a useless pitcher for a couple years because they'll have shed a lot of veteran salaries at that point.

allentown 2018-02-10 20:52:05 UTC #776

I haven't a clue what you are getting at here. Have you looked at the stats on Callison. He had a 6.1 WAR that season. In today's FA market, that's at least $45 million of value for just that year and his 1963 WAR was even higher. Callison of 1963-65 would do perfectly well with sabermetric analysis. I think you are just wildly railing against the declining emphasis on scouting and counting stats in evaluating players. You just discovered Vargas and his 18 wins and don't want rain on that nascent parade. Vargas is mid-30s and i know how closely you follow baseball, so if he were really good, he wouldn't have just popped onto your radar screen. If he is healthy (a big if given his second half, and if I trusted Phillies medical staff to properly evaluate his medical condition), then I'd be happy to take a chance on signing him for a year.

nycphils 2018-02-10 20:58:20 UTC #777

I’m with you...not awesome but my impression (without checking) is that he rarely gets lit up.

flyers19rw 2018-02-10 23:01:10 UTC #778

Darvish gets 6/$126. Good for him. He'll be 32 next season. Frankly I'm not interested in a six year deal for a pitcher of that age.
The good news out of this is that it takes the Cubs out of the mix for other pitchers. Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn are still out there if the Phillies want to go for the names. Darvish going to the Cubs puts pressure on the Brewers to go get an arm; probably Arrieta. Just my opinion but as we've seen with Oswald, Lee and Doc, paying big bucks for pitchers in their mid thirties is a dicey business.

julio 2018-02-10 23:27:37 UTC #779

I would assume Geltz will not be in the major-league camp. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him just released.

zambonir 2018-02-10 23:54:35 UTC #780

Would make sense. OTOH, he was a Kapler guy (played for Dodgers AAA team last year), it's just a drug of abuse (his previous suspension was for marijuana), there's no roster considerations, and you'd end up with a fresh arm - whether for the Pigs or the Phillies - in August. So it just depends whether the Phillies feel burned, and/or want to make a statement.

andyb 2018-02-11 00:10:30 UTC #781

But that is a bargain. You need to think big picture. He has been consistently worth about $30 million every year he has been healthy. So 3 good years and 3 mediocre years and the Cubs would benefit (though I assume the escalators that take it close to $150 million would happen if he has a few good years.

We should not be prudish about spending money. Everyone who values analytics knows the Cubs are one of the smartest analytic teams out there and they just got a bargain. It does not matter if he if good for 6 years. This contract is worthwhile if he is good for 3 or 4.

Any analytic minded fan should ask the question of why the Phillies, a team with more disposable money than anyone, are not signing players to these bargain contracts.