2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

Neris is nowhere near as good as Giles. He is decent, but we all know save stats are misleading. For all those who love to quote FIP, Giles has never been above 2.86 in a season and Neris has never been below 3.30. Last year it was 2.39 to 3.71.

Trading Giles was the right thing to do at the time because closers tend to be overrated. And the trade we made was a good one even though it appears that Appel was a big scouting mistake.

As for today I am not sure what is meant by dealing from a position of strength. We just signed Neshak and Hunter because really the bullpen was a position of weakness for us last year. And that has little to do with addressing our starting pitching weakness which we should also be doing this offseason.

[Austinfan]

We have plenty of young RPs and RP prospects and it's easier to buy RPs than SPs.

So trading a flamethrowing closer (with the fear of arm trouble) was trading from a position the team could fill internally and externally, whereas it's hard to find SPs of any caliber (in FA we have one #2, a couple #3/#4 guys and a bunch of #5s at best).

Neris when his splitter is working isn't a falloff from Giles.
Neris has had two 2 WAR seasons back to back.
Giles posted the same as a Philly, then -0.2 and 1.9 for the Astros.
So yeah, it's a wash.
Basically it's Neris' command of his splitter v Giles durability.

There is something to the closer role, or why do many pitchers throw well in the setup role yet fail to post better than 70-80% success as a closer - some pitchers just can't handle the role mentally, even if they have the stuff.

[andyb]

Neris when his splitter is working isn't a falloff from Giles.
Neris has had two 2 WAR seasons back to back.
Giles posted the same as a Philly, then -0.2 and 1.9 for the Astros.
So yeah, it's a wash.
Basically it's Neris' command of his splitter v Giles durability.

This is just inventing stuff. Your could say that any pitcher is good when their stuff is working. Neris is a decent pitcher, but he just is not close to Giles. He is 2 years older. Neris gives up 7.6 hits/9 instead of 6.9. He has twice the HR rate (1.2 vs 0.6) and his K rate is inferior (10.5 vs 12.4). The WAR anomaly from last year is just that - an anomaly where Giles was relatively unlucky with BABIP. And frankly Neris is a lesser pitcher once the league learned to lay off his splitter more.

Neris is a nice pitcher with pedestrian closer stuff. Giles is a little inconsistent but he has actually good closer stuff. The two just aren't close and it is odd you want to make the argument. Nobody is arguing trading Giles was bad BTW. But it is just wrong to say that Neris is as good because he clearly is not.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...thanks for the mention about my affection for Fisher, I was not happy when he was pulled out of the deal for a couple of reasons. #1, I have a natural fear of trusting in pitchers too much today since they are forever getting hurt and #2...because of this fear I was especially concerned about a deal where we basically gave up two bats, Arauz and Fisher for nothing but pitchers.

To me, this was Klentak's biggest mistake, he should have brought in a bat to counterbalance the loss of Arauz. To be fair, I was hopeful that a change of scenery might just invigorate Appel, especially when I was reading that the Astro's had changed his delivery and the Phils were going to allow him to go back to the way he pitched in college.

But I always felt queasy about letting Fisher out of our grasps, he seemed to be a guy who could have made the Phillies outfield fairly quickly and had good power to boot.

I still feel that way and suspect that, much like Santana, we will watch him grow as a player and say,"gosh we had [almost] this guy and let him slip away."

[Austinfan]

Unless of course Williams becomes the player they thought they were trading for, and at the time, they didn't know Cozens would go belly up and Quinn would get hurt once again. Of course, they also didn't know they were going to draft two LH OFs in the 1st rd who'll probably be better defensively than Fisher as well. Or that Hoskins could play the OF. That's why it's important to maintain optionality - crap happens.

Neris has put up the same WAR as Giles (2 years for Neris, 3 of 4 for Giles).
Neither pitcher has got above 2 WAR, which is normal, few RPs ever do.
A nasty splitter is just as effective as a well located 98 MPH FB - lot's of badly located FBs end up 450 feet away.
Giles may be better, but only marginally, and I don't know which pitcher is more likely to break down.
Point is they haven't lost much if anything with that trade.

[zambonir]

Neris was not the Phillies closer after they traded Giles, Jeanmar Gomez was. The main reason they did the trade is there was no reason for a 60-70 win team to have an elite closer. Such a player was going to be more valuable to another team, and it made sense to capitalize on that value while also letting another team assume the risk of injury or inconsistency. Not complicated.

The same arguments were made for trading Neris. He just wasn't good/valuable enough to make the potential trade return be higher than what he could provide the team. Doesn't mean he'll be closing for the 2019 Phillies, however (though I hope "closer" roles aren't important).

[tom81]

Roman Quinn has a real chance to make the Phillies - Philly

“Everybody agrees that if this guy can stay on the field — and we can help him and support him staying on the field by being creative about the reps and perhaps dialing the reps back; I know he works his butt off — then we can capture some of that upside,” Kapler said. “There’s no question that he’s a very athletic individual that, if he’s healthy, can be a strong contributor.”

I'm really juiced by this article. With the short 4 man bench I had assumed that they were going to go with 2 IF'ers for the bench. With Quinn's background coming up as a SS it sounds like they may be willing to has him as the emergency SS backup and really go with the speed weapon on the bench. This team may be really fun to watch this year.

[Austinfan]

Quinn could use some more AAA time.
A guy with his speed should make better contact - getting on base really increases his value v a tad bit more power.
Problem is his injuries have limited his PA.

[Austinfan]

I don't think anyone really saw Gomez as a closer, or even a setup man, they just rode a hot streak.
I think they figured they could replaced Giles by the time they were close to competitive, and they were right

Garcia has been more erratic than Neris, but seems to have settled into a groove. While he's 30, his weird career path has limited his wear and tear and he still has a lot left in that arm. He actually added almost 2 MPH (after a 0.5 MPH radar gun change) to his FB between age 26 and 29.

What they added with Neshak and Hunter was veteran 7th inning depth (and insurance) so they can spoon feed Ramos and Arano, Behind them there's Rios, Pinto, Davis, and in Reading, Edgar Garcia, Singer, Rivero and my favorite RP name, JD Hammer.

It's pretty easy to find guys who can throw 95+ for 1-2 innings these days, the trick is to develop a plus secondary pitch and the command to exploit it. But it explains why most RPs are considered fungible.

[andyb]

Quinn has been major league ready for 2 years. He would definitely add an element to the team that would be useful even if it is only pinch running. If he plays well in Spring Training he should be given a chance to make the team. Even in his abbreviated season in AAA last year his strike zone judgement was fine. His walk rate has actually been remarkably consistent at every single level (roughly 1 BB for every 10 AB). I am sure pitchers throw him strikes simply because they don't want to walk him. His reaction to show some modest power (as opposed to Ben Revere) makes him a better player.

Why hope for some unicorn with a 15% BB rate as opposed to appreciating what we have - a great defensive replacement for Hoskins (or Herrera) who can be a huge late inning weapon simply by pinch running. He is Jarrod Dyson with a bit more power. Dyson has been worth 2 WAR a year in 50% playing time. I want Quinn on the team if healthy and playing well.

Jarrod Dyson Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[andyb]

With Quinn's background coming up as a SS it sounds like they may be willing to has him as the emergency SS backup and really go with the speed weapon on the bench

It would be interesting if they are considering this and I really had not thought of it that way. But they have been very consistent about positional flexibility. They clearly need one middle infield capable reserve and then a catcher plus the Altherr/Williams platoon are givens. Since Hoskins would be the 1B backup it would make complete sense for Quinn to be an emergency infielder in addition to playing the OF. I am not sure if he would ever get any infield starts, but the whole point of Quinn on the roster might be to pinch run him in the 8th or 9th inning for anyone slow that gets on base. That requires double switches. If you burn the middle infielder as a 6th inning pinch hitter, you do need to have another infielder if you pinch run for a Franco late.

If Kapler is thinking like this it is a huge plus. Of course I kind of hate the 4-man bench (the rosters really need to increase because pitching usage has changed). But if we have to have that short bench, I think Quinn could be an important piece if he can play some emergency infield. It might even be 3B because Quinn does have a much stronger arm than either Hernandez or Valentin or Kingery.

[California_Dreamin]

Let me be the first to say it...I hate the 13 man pitching staff, absolutely hate it. And find it not only ridiculous in its redundancy but certainly a foolish idea if the goal is to speed up the game. Not to mention that we are going to see far too many extra inning games where Pat Neshek or Tommy Hunter have to pinch hit in the 12th inning of a tie game because the team has run out of position players.

Honestly, this is is NOT a positive direction for the game I love, and my guess is that most baseball fans agree with me. Look, I know I have been a fan longer than most here [though allentown and julio also remember the '64 Phillies] so I get that some of my comments are viewed as coming from someone still pining for the 80's. Not so.

What I want is the best game I can have and 13 pitchers on a 25 man roster is not the best game I can have. I am sure that many on this site would be stunned to know that one of the greatest teams in Phillie history [and I can make a case that they were the most talented], the 1977 Phillies carried 9, count em, 9 pitchers on their staff for most of the year...the incomparable Steve Carlton, Christenson, Lonborg, Kaat, Lerch, McGraw, Garber, Reed and Brusstar. And not once did anyone fear that the team needed another arm or two, Not once.

I read on phuturephillies today that for most of his time in Clearwater, Quinn has looked sullen and unhappy, probably because he can do the math. I know this much...a Roman Quinn as the 5th guy off the bench is worth more than any pitcher ranked #13 on the staff.

Baseball needs to increase the roster to 26-27 if they insist on carrying 13 pitchers. As for me, I do and will continue to HATE it.

[Ryles]

Agree 100% CD, 11 is plenty & solid versatile bench is more valuable than pitcher #12 & 13. Keep roster at 25 too.

[DurhamBull]

For as often as the 13th pitcher pitches, it might as well be Quinn. There's your positional flexibility!

[LoneStarPhan]

I started following the Phillies when the norm was a ten man pitching staff (and the tenth man often was lost in the pen for weeks with no action) and a bench of seven. I think any less than a bench of six impacts on the product on the field. It is not at all uncommon for one or more players to "be unavailable" for a game or more. I am afraid it is time for the rosters to be expanded since I don't think the modern manager can survive with only 11 (or even 12) pitchers. Raise the roster to 27.

[flyers19rw]

If MLB wants to keep the games moving, perhaps limiting the number of pitchers on a staff would help the cause since it might take away the number of RPs for the manager to call on in a game. Mandate a twenty-five man roster; eleven pitchers and fourteen position players.

[LoneStarPhan]

If MLB wants to keep the games moving, perhaps limiting the number of pitchers on a staff would help the cause since it might take away the number of RPs for the manager to call on in a game. Mandate a twenty-five man roster; eleven pitchers and fourteen position players.

I certainly would favor that but I know it just isn't going to happen. Just like I'd like to eliminate the DH in MLB but I know that is also not going to happen.

[allentown]

Just require that any pitcher brought into a game must face at least two, or even 3, hitters at a minimum, barring injury. Claiming injury requires a trip to the DL.

[zambonir]

I think two would do it. But a team (like, potentially, the Phillies) that doesn't believe in letting its starters go three times through the order is obviously going to need more relievers. Six-man rotations (or at least carrying that sixth starter in the pen) may also become more common. And yet, you would think with all the analytics and the match-ups and the positional flexibility you'd want more quivers in your hitting arrow, even if you don't need to double-switch or defensively replace as frequently.

[donaldorc]

But a team (like, potentially, the Phillies) that doesn't believe in letting its starters go three times through the order is obviously going to need more relievers.

Kapler ain't gonna follow the recent rules of bullpen use. He'll think outta the box.